Polymarket CEO warns against '100 times' token craze

预测市场：在“百倍币”狂热中寻求理性回归

随着加密货币交易者对追逐“下一个百倍代币”的热情逐渐降温，预测市场正受到越来越多的关注。本周在新加坡Token2049大会上发言时，Polymarket首席执行官Shayne Coplan警告称，目前的加密货币交易在很大程度上仍是一种由心理因素和短期激励驱动的乐观循环，而非基于持久的基本面。

Coplan将部分交易文化形容为一场“非理性的繁荣游戏”，并将市场反弹比作“烫手山芋”效应：价格可以迅速上涨，但最终会瓦解。他认为，在这种环境下，交易者往往更关注退出时机，而非长期价值——特别是当上涨叙事依赖于寻找下一个突破性资产时。

核心要点

• Polymarket的首席执行官表示，加密货币交易可能变成一场“烫手山芋”游戏，交易者试图在资产跌回零值之前抛售。
• Coplan认为，交易者正越来越多地寻求具有更合理概率的机会，而不是追求加密资产的指数级上涨潜力。
• Coplan引用的DefiLlama数据显示，过去七天内Polymarket的预测交易量达到12.1亿美元，仅次于Kalshi的23亿美元。
• 预测市场在美国及其他司法管辖区面临日益增加的监管压力，影响了银行接入和用户访问权限。

Why a "hundredfold" culture distorts decision-making

Coplan's remarks link the current trading environment to classic behavioral patterns described in economics. He cited economist Robert J. Shiller's research on "irrational exuberance" and pointed out that optimism can spread rapidly through social, psychological and market-driven feedback loops until momentum cools.

In practice, this means that some participants are not really trying to understand the actual use of the asset; they are buying because the story itself provides an opportunity to earn excess returns. Coplans said bluntly: Traders may consider certain tokens to be "worthless" in nature, but they will still buy if they believe that price movements will bring dramatic returns. He said the expectation is usually to wait until the mood reverses and sell.

This approach may produce a few winners, but Coplan emphasizes that the broader market results are unstable: if enthusiasm drives prices up, then subsequent disintegration can also be rapid.

Predicts that markets offer different incentives

Coplan believes that the rise of Polymarket reflects a shift in demand among some traders. He said participants are no longer keen to find the next digital asset with potential "exponential upside" space, but are increasingly interested in probability markets that are directly related to future events and information.

“在Polymarket上，如果你在这些市场中交易，不存在指数级的上涨空间，”Coplan解释道。相反，这更接近于评估概率——利用现有信息对事件结果下注，并在事件发生后进行评估。

这种框架的重要性在于它改变了技能的体现方式。在“百倍币”竞赛中，主要的优势可能是早期接触叙事和流动性动能。而在基于事件的 markets 中，表现可能更多取决于解读数据、校准预期以及在新信息改变感知可能性时管理仓位的能力。

Polymarket的增长与更广泛的预测市场格局

Polymarket在预测市场类别中的地位凸显了这种替代性交易风格正在获得 traction。根据活动中引用的DefiLlama数据，Polymarket目前按交易量计算是第二大预测市场，过去七天的预测交易量达到12.1亿美元。在此比较中最大的平台Kalshi在同一时期记录了23亿美元的交易量。

虽然这些数字显示了强劲的活动水平，但也突显了一个竞争现实：预测市场并非孤立运作。寻求“可预测概率”的交易者仍然将其注意力集中在拥有流动性和市场深度的场所——这些特征决定了信息优势是否真正可交易。

Coplan's comments also echo broader industry analysis of who benefits from these structures. A December report from 10x Research (as summarized in previous reports) argued that the prediction market is becoming a new battleground within cryptocurrencies-where data-driven traders can profit from information asymmetry, while retail participants with less information are more likely to chase quick gains.

Regulatory pressure intensifies as the forecasting market expands

While the forecasting market has attracted traders, regulatory scrutiny has also intensified. Coplan's comments came amid the backdrop of high-profile restrictions and compliance challenges affecting operating platforms in the U.S. and elsewhere.

In the U.S., JPMorgan Chase reportedly ended its banking relationship with Polymarket on August 14 due to regulatory concerns and said it remains interested in taking on an underwriting role if Polymarket seeks to go public. This incident illustrates a recurring pattern in cryptocurrency-related markets: regulatory uncertainty not only shapes legal outcomes, but can also restrict traditional financial connectivity.

Legal litigation is also spreading. As previously reported, more than a dozen U.S. states have taken action against Polymarket or Kalshi, involving contract issues for sports events. In addition, some countries have blocked or restricted users 'access to Polymarket. As an example of limited access, Singapore has previously mentioned reducing access due to gambling-related issues.

These developments are significant for the average player as they affect where users engage, how easy it is to connect institutions, and whether the platform needs to redesign its market structure to reduce legal risk. [TAG

What Traders and Builders Should Focus on Next

Coplan's message boils down to a practical market problem: When the pursuit of external token returns is dominated by speculation, more participants are likely to turn to trading formats that reward probability assessment rather than narrative timing. The next signal to watch is whether forecast markets can sustain growth as regulation tightens-and whether access restrictions, bank decisions, and legal outcomes will alter the liquidity and participation of these markets 'initial appeal.