Long-term price outlook for Ethereum: Can the Fusaka upgrade help push prices to new highs?

Looking ahead to 2026, Ethereum’s long-term prospects reflect a balance between structural improvements and unresolved external risks. While continuous network improvements continue to strengthen Ethereum as the core settlement layer for decentralized applications, the price movement will depend on whether technological advantages can offset regulatory pressures and concerns regarding collateral concentration.

Technological levels determine medium-term trends.

From a price structure perspective, Ethereum faces a key area around $3120. This level coincides with an important清算节点; breaking through this area could force short positions to be closed and accelerate the upward trend.

If prices confirm a break through this area, attention will shift to $3570, which corresponds to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. This area represents another important resistance level, and it will test the overall bullish sentiment in the market.

On the downside, if Ethereum fails to break through $3120, there is still a risk of a drop to $2720. If this level is tested again, it would indicate that the market will remain volatile within a certain range, rather than entering a sustained upward trend.

Fusaka upgrade serves as a long-term catalyst.

The Fusaka upgrade is a key factor in Ethereum’s development path in 2026. Its impact will be primarily measured by changes in second-layer activities, including transaction throughput, cost efficiency, and developer engagement.

If Fusaka can significantly improve the scalability of the L2 layer and reduce the friction associated with Rollup operations, Ethereum has the potential to solidify its position as the leading execution and settlement layer. This would help meet the long-term demand for ETH as a utility asset and staking asset, rather than relying solely on speculative capital flows.

However, the market may wait for clear data from the upgrade before incorporating long-term benefits into pricing decisions.

Regulatory and structural risks still exist

. Despite continuous technological advancements, Ethereum still faces numerous external challenges. Regulatory uncertainties remain a major risk, especially given that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is expected to make a decision regarding Ethereum ETFs in the first quarter of 2026. A favorable ruling could increase institutional participation, while delays or restrictions could hinder its growth.

Centralized staking is another concerning issue. The concentration of large verification nodes and liquidity providers raises questions about the network’s resilience and governance, which could affect institutional perspectives over time.

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Outlook on Ethereum price

The long-term price outlook for Ethereum depends on actual performance, rather than market expectations. A break above $3121 would strengthen bullish sentiment and open up the way to higher Fibonacci targets. At the same time, any upgrades to Fusaka must be accompanied by a significant increase in Layer 2 usage, in order to support prices reaching historical highs.