The Bitcoin derivatives market is generally bullish, but the greatest challenges lie beneath the spo

在比特币现货资金持续流入、长期持有者筹码愈发稳定的同时，衍生品市场却释放出更为紧绷的信号。数据显示，主流交易平台的期货与期权未平仓合约仍徘徊在本轮周期高位，资金并未因价格震荡而撤离，反而持续加码布局。同时，大量期权仓位集中在关键行权价附近，放大了短期波动风险。现货与衍生品之间的这种分化，正在成为当前比特币市场最值得关注的矛盾点。

比特币衍生品持仓在重大期权到期前趋于紧张

Coinglass统计显示比特币期货未平仓合约总额为$587.4亿，代表64.367万BTC的未结合约。过去24小时内，未平仓总额攀升3.99%，表明新的头寸而不是安静的平仓。短期变化保持适度，表明交易者正在有计划地增加敞口，而不是恐慌性操作。

在期货平台中，币安以名义价值领先，未平仓合约达$119亿，占市场的20%以上。CME紧随其后，未平仓合约为$98亿，保持其机构重磅作用，而Bybit和Gate各持有超过$50亿。OKX以$36.4亿的未平仓合约完成头部梯队。

Short-term futures trading activity shows mixed results across various exchanges. The CME index has decreased slightly over the past four hours, while Binance and OKX also recorded slight declines. In contrast, Bybit, Gate, and MEXC have shown stronger growth over the past 24 hours, indicating that speculative interest is shifting to alternative platforms, rather than disappearing completely.

Long-term futures data indicates that positions have reached a high level. Since mid-2024, the number of open positions in Bitcoin futures has increased significantly, rising alongside prices. This persistence suggests that leverage levels remain stable, keeping the market sensitive to significant price fluctuations.

The options market also exhibits similar congestion levels. The total number of open Bitcoin options continues to rise, with call options dominating. Call options account for 56.88% of all open positions, worth 172,616 BTC, while put options make up 43.12%, or 130,848 BTC. Volatility levels over the past 24 hours reflect this trend, with call options once again exceeding put options.

Deribit is the hub of option trading activities. The largest open positions are related to BTC-30JAN26-100000-C, with a position value of 8,806 BTC. Other large positions expire in January and March, with values ranging from $80,000 to $110,000. Volatility data shows that traders are actively trading short-term options with January expiration dates, both call and put options, without simply abandoning their positions.

The maximum pain point levels are significantly lower than those in the current spot market among the major options exchanges. On Deribit, the maximum pain point remains around $90,000 near several upcoming expiration dates. Binance and OKX also exhibit similar characteristics. In both cases, the maximum nominal concentration is slightly lower than the current price, creating a region where option writers face minimal compensation. The concentrated expiration dates in January and March carry significant nominal weight, with visible spikes in open positions around late January and late March. This pattern indicates that traders are preparing for volatility, but they are not firmly committed to any specific directional outlook. Overall, the Bitcoin derivatives market appears crowded but orderly. Futures traders continue to increase their positions, while option traders still tend to go long, although there is clear hedging against the spot market. With open positions remaining high, the maximum pain point remains below $91,000. The next decisive move may involve who gives way first, rather than a definite outcome.

Frequently Asked Questions ❓

● What is the current number of open positions in Bitcoin futures?

There are approximately $587.4 million in open positions in Bitcoin futures, representing more than 643,000 BTC.

● Which exchange leads the market in Bitcoin futures positions?

Binance holds the largest share by nominal value, followed by CME and Bybit.

● Do Bitcoin option traders tend to go long or short?

期权数据显示出看涨期权占据优势结构，看涨期权占总未平仓合约的近57%。

● 主要期权交易所的最大痛点水平在哪里?

币安、OKX和Deribit的最大痛点水平聚集在$90,000价格区间附近。