牛市还剩下多久?什么时候需要获利了结?

Recently, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have reached historical highs. It seems that the market is approaching a temporary peak. I would like to remind everyone not to focus solely on price movements. It’s better to take profits in batches, gradually locking in profits, while also establishing your own investment strategy. This way, even if there are short-term corrections or what some call a “mini bear market,” you can remain calm and avoid panic.

Let’s talk briefly about the market situation. Over the past few days, the market has entered a phase of sideways movement. For BTC, although indicators suggest a bearish trend and the MACD seems to be about to cross below its previous high, $112,000 remains a short-term support level. As long as this level isn’t breached, the price is likely to continue fluctuating for some time. As shown in the chart below.

As for ETH, it has risen quite rapidly recently. Just a few days ago, when it was close to breaking through its historical high, the market entered a correction phase. Currently, ETH is also in a state of sideways movement. However, according to indicators, the price may continue to fluctuate for a while. In extreme cases, it could drop back to the range of $3600-$4000. But overall, the medium-term trend is positive. There’s a high probability that ETH will break through its historical high and attempt to reach the $5000 mark.

Of course, different people may have different opinions or references based on the trends of the market. Any judgment should be used as a supplement to other considerations. The above are merely our own opinions. You can make your own judgments and make decisions based on your risk tolerance.

Based on historical experience, the most intense periods in the market often occur at the end of a certain cycle. It seems that we are currently in such a phase. However, compared to previous bull market cycles, the risk of hitting a peak at any time is much higher now.

When the market is on an upward trend, it seems easy to make money, but actually maintaining those profits is very difficult. Although many people understand that no one can accurately predict when the market will reach its peak, human nature dictates that most people still hope to sell at the peak during the later stages of a bull market cycle.

Recently, I’ve noticed that many people still say, “This time is different!”

But honestly, shouting such slogans doesn’t really mean much. After all, every cycle is different. We don’t need to stick rigidly to past patterns, nor do we need to always hold onto new illusions about the market.

A more reasonable approach is to be prepared at all times and always have a PlanB in mind. For example, if the current position is indeed the peak, then are you satisfied with the profits you’ve already made?

It seems that many people are now waiting for a major market rally, similar to those in 2017 and 2021. But here comes the question: what should we do if we skip the traditional bull market尾声阶段, and instead enter a bear market (or mini-bear market) right after reaching a temporary peak?

Nowadays, more and more people are beginning to believe in the theory of super cycles in markets. More and more celebrities and experts are promoting cryptocurrencies. Even more people are searching for information about cryptocurrencies and discussing them... As shown in the chart below.

Bitcoin continues to break through historical highs, while Ethereum is also close to its historical peak... We always say that opportunities come with risks. Therefore, we shouldn’t embrace risks like at the beginning of a cycle. Instead, we should gradually take profits over time, so that our mindset and positions remain flexible. We shouldn’t wait until a collapse occurs before being completely devastated.

Let’s make a simple comparison using the performance of Bitcoin during the bull market in 2021:

For example, from the perspective of time, the peak in 2017 lasted for about 1435 days, while the peak in 2021 lasted for about 1373 days. If we ignore the concept of super cycles and focus only on the shorter-term cycles (4-5 years), it seems there are still 2-3 months left. Even if you try to find the “ Sword” by marking the boat’s position, it’s now time to start taking profits in batches.

再比如，从比特币和山寨币关系维度来看，之前牛市只有在最后的阶段，比特币的主导地位才会下降，随后山寨币开始上涨。而过去的几周，我们似乎正处于这种趋势的开始，虽然规模表现上和之前的牛市有了很大的不同，但趋势方向似乎没变，即以太坊和一些主流币正在开始重新引领了这一趋势的发生。

很多人认为，不应该再拿历史来对比现在，但历史有时候不仅仅是数据，也是人性的一种体现。虽然不少人认为，目前的市场情绪根本不足以支撑市场见顶，加密市场还将大幅上涨且会持续更长时间，本轮周期开始将彻底打破四年周期的规律，但到目前为止，我们看到，市场的整体趋势依然一如既往，比特币进入了第二波创新历史新高的走势，其主导地位正在下降，以太坊继续看涨并准备创造历史新高，不少山寨币则跟随比特币和以太坊的趋势发生变化。

如果目前的整体势头能够持续，那么再经历一些有效调整和杠杆清理后，今年底之前，以太坊的价格不仅会破新高，也不排除可能真的会去到6000美元附近，届时一些流动性可能会快速转向其他部分主流山寨币种，并迅速在部分小盘币种转向，这个期间的山寨市场看起来将是最有回报的，但也是风险最高的时候。

From a historical and probabilistic perspective, we believe that this cycle is still not at its peak. However, theoretically, it seems that the market is nearing its peak. We don’t focus on whether the four-year cycle pattern holds true, nor do we worry about whether the market will enter a supercycle. Instead, we tend to believe that after reaching a peak, the market may immediately enter a bear market (or mini-bear market), and this cycle repeats. But looking at longer periods (such as the next 10 or 20 years), we still see the crypto market as positive and promising. Many people think that short-term trading is difficult, while long-term trading might be easier. However, in our experience, short-term trading is challenging, but long-term trading is even more difficult, not easier. This is because the longer the cycle, the greater the likelihood of losses. The market always tries to create attractive entry points, but never provides the best exit points that can be easily predicted. What is the most comfortable state of trading? Simply put, it’s a trading method that goes against human nature. By maintaining flexibility in your positions, you can wait for opportunities to buy in smaller amounts when the market is inactive. When the market is strong and sentiment is high, you can sell in larger amounts. At other times, you can eat, drink, and do whatever else you need to do. What are a bull market and a bear market?Recently, some people have been leaving messages in the background, asking me: How much longer does this bull market last? When will the next bear market begin? In fact, these questions vary from person to person. You might consider it a bear market when Bitcoin drops below the MA200. I also think it’s a bear market when Bitcoin falls from its high point at the beginning of this year to its low point in April. Theoretically, different people may have different interpretations of time, price, and market sentiment, which could lead to different definitions of bull and bear markets. But in reality, most people are stuck by the fact that the market follows a four-year cycle (a historical pattern), or they ignore their own investment strategies.

In short, each cycle is different, but human nature remains unchanged. The financial market is essentially a game of probabilities. The higher the prices rise, the harder it becomes for people to sell their positions. Many people even buy more due to FOMO. If you don’t plan to exit during the periods when the market is performing best, then you are willingly becoming someone else’s liquidity provider.

In other words, the only way for ordinary investors to avoid being trapped is to sell in batches and gradually reduce their positions when the market is rising strongly. Even if prices continue to rise, your phased selling strategy can still generate good returns. You can even keep 10% of your position to take advantage of the perfect peak.

Whether it's a short-term plan, medium-term plan, or long-term plan, if you still don't have any investment framework in place (including strategies for-profit exits), then our recommendation is to start developing such a framework right now, and then stick to it. Plan your trades, and trade according to your plan. Don't wait for the market to reverse suddenly, only to then face the psychological burden of losing everything.

Of course, we won't provide any specific trading instructions regarding when to buy or sell. You can make decisions based on your own risk tolerance. To put it more simply: if you're looking for short to medium-term opportunities, you should take advantage of the opportunities during the fourth quarter of this year. If you have a long-term perspective, you can ignore any short-term fluctuations and maintain patience. For example, if you firmly believe that Bitcoin will reach at least $300,000 per unit by 2029, and Ethereum will reach at least $15,000 per unit, without caring about price fluctuations during that time, then you can continue to buy more Bitcoin and Ethereum to stock up on them.

The market cannot ensure that most people make money; instead, it will do everything possible to deceive as many people as possible. Therefore, having your own investment framework is crucial for standing out from other investors in this market.