Is it going to continue rising rapidly, or will it start to decline? Market predictions suggest that

12月以来，比特币回报率回落约5.5%，市场对短期走势的分歧明显加大。在价格陷入震荡区间之际，越来越多投资者不再只盯着技术图形，而是转向预测市场，观察资金真实下注方向。随着Polymarket等平台活跃度上升，这些“真金白银”的押注，正在成为判断市场预期与情绪变化的另类风向标。

众多赌徒仍然青睐10万美元，但优势正在缩小

到2025年12月18日，比特币(BTC)在一次急剧上涨后，又在当天早些时候出现了回调，目前交易价格在85,000美元以上。为了了解市场预期的走向，我们查看了Myriad市场的投注项“比特币的下一步：涨到10万美元还是跌到6.9万美元?”，截至今天，这个市场的交易量已经达到了49.4万美元的USDC。

简单来说，人们给10万美元的概率为57.6%，而6.9万美元的概率为42.4%。这确实是一个优势，但还不足以庆祝。在过去的一周中，对10万美元结果的信心下滑了15.3个百分点，表明一些赌徒正在悄悄地降低他们的信心。

规则非常直接：市场保持开放，直到比特币达到10万美元或跌至6.9万美元——没有延期，也没有灰色区域。换句话说，赌徒们已经坐上了车，盯着图表，等待比特币选择一个方向，并展示某人的信心。

Currently, prices in the six-digit range still hold an advantage, but the gap is narrowing. The tense atmosphere is becoming increasingly noticeable. The long-term goal remains unchanged for Kalshi, but the timeline is extending. In the Kalshi market, there was approximately $16.47 million in trading volume regarding when Bitcoin could reach $150,000. However, there was little celebratory atmosphere; instead, the excitement seems to be fading away. As of now, among those optimistic about this scenario, the probability of achieving this goal by June 2026 is only 14%, which represents a two-point decrease from earlier estimates. The shorter timeline further weakens confidence: the probability drops to 12% by May 2026, and only 8% by April 2026. There are almost no records of such earlier scenarios. Looking at the timeline, it’s clear that the probability has been steadily declining from October to December, indicating that traders are no longer enthusiastic about the idea of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 soon. Prices show the same trend: contracts that predict “yes” remain cheap, while those predicting “no” dominate the market. In conclusion, the bettors in Kalshi do not completely deny the possibility of $150,000, but they clearly plan for this to happen in the future, not as a short-term goal. Patience seems to be the preferred strategy right now, rather than celebrating immediately. $80,000 remains Polymarket’s current preferred outcome. The crowd at Polymarket isn’t hesitating—they have made up their minds and marked them with markers.In the prediction of whether Bitcoin will reach $80,000 or $150,000 first, there was nearly $699,000 in trading volume. The probability of reaching $80,000 was 87%, which represents a significant increase of 37 percentage points. $150,000 seemed like a more achievable goal, rather than the next milestone. From October to December, the chart showed a steady increase in confidence in the $80,000 outcome. Betters continued to place bets on this option, despite their doubts.

It’s clear that traders at Polymarket believe that $80,000 is just a halfway point, not the final destination. They are betting that Bitcoin will reach six-figure levels before hitting $100,000. In this competition, $80,000 isn’t just a likely outcome; it’s an overwhelmingly dominant choice.

The next chapter for Bitcoin will be one of caution, rather than celebration.

Looking at individual predictions, one can see a clear shift: confidence hasn’t disappeared, but it has been reduced. Betters in the prediction market continue to seek higher potential outcomes, but these outcomes now involve longer time frames and fewer bold claims. December didn’t trigger panic—it encouraged restraint, as people became more cautious when beliefs collided with reality.

What these markets have in common is a preference for caution over spectacularity. Short-term predictions tend to be defensive in nature, while long-term goals are set further down the calendar. Certainty is scarce at present. Currently, the prediction market isn’t seeking to show off power. Instead, they focus on patience, rethinking approaches, and allowing Bitcoin’s market to wait a little longer before making decisions.

Frequently Asked Questions

● 当前预测市场对比特币的信号是什么?

交易者依然谨慎看涨，但对快速上涨至更高价格目标的信心得到削减。

● Myriad市场在押注什么?

它押注于比特币会先达到10万美元还是跌到6.9万美元，虽然六位数仍然略占上风。

● Kalshi交易者对15万美元的比特币有什么看法?

大多数认为这将是稍后的事件，不太可能在2026年初出现。

● Polymarket的情况如何?

Polymarket赌徒们绝大多数预期比特币会重新回到8万美元，然后再认真冲向15万美元。