Christmas Week: Major Events

As the Christmas holiday approaches, global markets enter a period of low liquidity, yet with many uncertainties. Beneath the surface calm, one key question remains unresolved: will Trump announce his choice for the next Fed chairman before or during the holidays? Current forecast predictions suggest that Haskel, Washton, and Waller are among the top candidates. This decision directly affects interest rate expectations and the value of the US dollar. Against the backdrop of ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and the end-of-year market conditions, risk assets like Bitcoin are waiting closely for any announcements regarding policy changes.

Additionally, U.S. GDP data for the third quarter will provide insights into the effectiveness of previous interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, a speech by Bank of Japan Governor Yoshimura Ito could offer clues about Japan’s monetary policy in 2026.

I. Christmas Market Trends

Looking at the history of Bitcoin prices during Christmas seasons, it becomes clear that these seasonal patterns vary significantly. Over the past seven years, Bitcoin prices have shown a high degree of variability during Christmas periods. The probability of price increases or decreases was roughly equal, with an increase rate of approximately 57%. Performance of BTC during the last seven complete Christmas-New Year cycles (roughly from December 24th to January 3-5th of the following year):

● 2024 (December 24th → January 3rd, 2025): +3.67% (slight increase)

● 2023 (December 22nd → January 3rd, 2024): -2.33% (slight decrease)

● 2022 (December 26th → January 3rd, 2023): +0.08% (little change)

● 2021 (December 27th → January 4th, 2022): -10.4% (significant decline)

● 2020年（2020年12月24日至2021年1月5日）：+46.15%（大幅上涨）

● 2019年（2019年12月24日至2020年1月3日）：+0.55%（小幅上涨）

● 2018年（2018年12月24日至2019年1月3日）：-6.03%（小幅下跌）

二、美联储领导权之争

美联储主席的提名无疑成为本周全球市场的焦点。特朗普政府是否会在圣诞节期间公布提名名单，已成为市场热议的话题。目前三位主要候选人的政策倾向各不相同，这可能会带来不同的货币政策走向。

● 凯文·哈塞特作为国家经济委员会主任，与特朗普政府关系密切，市场预期他的提名可能会使美联储的政策更加符合政府的经济目标。

● 前美联储理事凯文·沃什以鹰派立场著称，如果他获得提名，可能意味着货币政策会更快地转向紧缩。

● 现任美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒被视为中间派，他的提名可能意味着政策的连续性。

这次领导层的变动正值美国经济的关键时期。自美联储开始降息以来，市场一直密切关注政策效果，而新任主席的货币政策理念将直接影响2026年的利率走势。

三、美国经济体检报告

将于周二发布的美国第三季度实际GDP年化季率初值，将是评估此前降息政策效果的重要依据。

● The initial quarterly rate of actual personal consumption expenditures in the third quarter can provide insights into the health of the consumer sector, which accounts for approximately 70% of the U.S. economy. The initial annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index is a key inflation indicator of concern to the Federal Reserve, as it directly affects future interest rate decisions.

● The release of these data was delayed due to the 43-day shutdown experienced by the U.S. government. Last week, the U.S. unemployment rate for November was reported at 4.6%, the highest level since September 2021. The investment community is eager to use these data to determine whether signs of economic slowdown provide room for the Fed to further cut interest rates.

● Currently, market sentiment appears to be shifting from “soft data becoming stronger” to “strong data becoming weaker”. The Consumer Confidence Index from the University of Michigan has rebounded from its low level of 52.2 in April. However, real economic data such as retail sales and structural issues in the job market remain weak.

Fourth, outlook on Canada’s monetary policy

On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada will release minutes of its monetary policy meeting, providing more information about the country’s economic prospects and policy direction.

● At its December 2025 meeting, the Bank of Canada will maintain the target overnight interest rate at 2.25%. In October, the central bank stated that the current policy rate was appropriate. This stance was maintained despite GDP growth of 2.6% in the third quarter and improvements in the labor market.

● In terms of inflation, the CPI rate in October has slowed down to 2.2%, but the core inflation rate remains within the range of 2.5% to 3%. Policy makers note that global uncertainties continue to exist, and tariff pressures along with unstable trade practices could further cause quarterly fluctuations in GDP.

● If inflation and economic activity remain consistent with the October predictions, the management committee believes that the current policy interest rates can help keep inflation at around 2%. Citigroup economists expect that the Bank of Canada will maintain its interest rates and policy guidelines unchanged for the time being.

V. Japan’s Monetary Policy Changes

● Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Ueda will give a speech at the Japan Economic Federation on Thursday. Market participants are looking forward to gaining insights into Japan’s monetary policy direction for 2026 from his speech.

● Ueda’s speech is particularly important. Last week, the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years. Ueda stated that this decision was made based on “increased confidence in the prospects for economic growth”.

● The market is paying close attention to this speech, as Japan remained inactive after the appointment of Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, until last week when it began to raise interest rates again. Additionally, Japan will release unemployment data for November, providing more information for evaluating the economic situation.

VI. The Impact of the US Labor Market and Tariffs

The number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the United States during the week of December 20th, which will be announced on Wednesday, is a key indicator of the health of the labor market. Although the overall data seems promising, there are still structural issues in the job market.

● 6月新增非农就业岗位虽达14.7万个，但其中一半来自政府部门招聘，私人部门就业创造能力相对有限。关税政策对就业市场的影响正逐渐显现。

● 关税冲击对经济的影响呈现阶段性特征。投资端已率先显现疲态，企业面对政策不确定性普遍采取谨慎策略，削减资本开支。

● 消费端的冲击预计将在下半年逐步显现，随着关税政策对企业生产成本、就业岗位和收入水平的负面影响传导至劳动力市场，家庭消费能力可能受到进一步冲击。。

全球市场屏息等待美联储主席提名的公布，交易员们已经为各种可能性做好准备。如果哈塞特被提名，市场可能预期更宽松的货币政策;若沃什胜出，则需准备好迎接可能更为鹰派的政策转向。

美国三季度GDP和个人消费数据将直观展示经济健康状况。即使数据稳健，市场仍需要关注消费增长是否可持续，以及核心PCE物价指数是否向着美联储的2%目标靠拢。

随着圣诞钟声临近，全球金融市场将在短暂休市后，带着这些经济数据和政策信号迈入崭新的2026年。