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ZEC 最近 Zcash(ZEC)可真是吸睛啊，月度涨幅竟然飙到了520%!不过问题来了，这波疯狂上涨还能继续吗?从技术面看，虽然长期还是有回调的风险，而且价格已经涨得不小了，但分析师认为10月还有大约25%的上涨空间，目标价大概在336美元左右。今天我们就来聊聊 ZEC 的行情，看看到底还能不能接着飞。
要点
● Zcash呈现抛物线式涨势，月度涨幅达520%，推至极度超买区间。
● ZEC价格需稳守245美元上方，才能继续冲击336美元。
Zcash(ZEC)在过去一个月内暴涨逾520%，逆势抵御了加密市场的整体抛售，后者仅在周末就强制平仓了约200亿美元杠杆仓位。
这款隐私币表现强劲，价格逼近300美元关口，为自2021年12月以来的最高价位。ZEC因此成为市场表现最为亮眼的币种之一。
ZEC/USDT周线价格图。来源：TradingView
ZEC的价格能否从当前水平进一步上涨，还是需要降温?
ZEC技术面暗示还有25%上涨空间
Zcash近期的爆发性上涨趋势目前正在经典的旗形整理形态中盘整，该形态通常预示行情有望进一步上行。
The latest K-line on the 4-hour chart shows a support line near the upper trend line, indicating that prices may retest the lower edge of the flag pattern, around $237.
ZEC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
If buyers can push prices above the upper trend line of the flag pattern, ZEC could confirm a bullish breakout. This move would set a technical target for October, around $336, which is approximately 25% higher than current levels.
This pattern also aligns with healthy consolidation above the 20-period (green) and 50-period (red) exponential moving averages, indicating that despite short-term overheating signs, the overall bullish momentum remains intact.
A bearish scenario would involve ZEC prices falling to around $210.
If ZEC prices fall between the support levels, i.e., below the lower trend line of the flag pattern and the 20-period EMA, there is a possibility of a drop to around $210.75 by the 50-period EMA in October.
As shown in the CoinGlass chart, there is a significant amount of long positions totaling approximately $5.36 million, concentrated around $244. This makes this area a key risk zone for longs.
ZEC/USDT清算热力图 (24 hours). Source: CoinGlass/Binance
If ZEC falls below $244, it could trigger a series of forced long position liquidations, leading to further price corrections before a rebound is possible.
In simple terms, this is where many traders are waiting for their stop-loss or liquidation points to be triggered, which could push ZEC prices towards the target of $210.75 mentioned above.
ZEC has reached a record-high “oversold” level.
The bearish scenario also depends on Zcash reaching its most overbought level on the weekly chart, which could lead to short-term corrections in the coming weeks.
As of Monday, ZEC’s weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) exceeded 92, hitting a record high.
The previous RSI peak was 78 in April 2021, and subsequently, ZEC’s price fell by nearly 70% over the following months.
Weekly chart of ZEC/USDT. Source: TradingView
A similar decline phase may follow, especially if the price fails to establish solid support around the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level of $245.
On the other hand, a rebound from the $245 support could push the price up to $307 or even higher, potentially testing ZEC’s 2021 high of around $375.
Analyst Altcoin Sherpa said that any drop below $200 could be an “investment opportunity,” suggesting that these lower levels might form a bottom within the next few days.
Three-day chart of ZEC/USDT. Source: Altcoin Sherpa/TradingView
“If the price reaches $230 or lower, I would be interested,” he added.
