Bitcoin price plummeted by 15% in just one night! 1.6 million people suffered from margin calls and

On the early morning of October 11th, the cryptocurrency market experienced a sudden plunge. In just 30 minutes, the price dropped by one percent per minute. All of this was due to a misunderstanding regarding policy developments. In this rapidly changing cryptocurrency market, news often has more significant impact than technical factors. The panic-driven sell-off caused by misinterpretation of policies caught many investors off guard. However, institutions took the opportunity to accumulate shares at low prices, thereby effectively reallocating assets. As individual investors fled the market due to margin calls, a new round of trading activity took place in the market. This might be the true nature of the cryptocurrency world—crisis and opportunity always coexist.

Early in the morning on October 13th, Beijing time, Bitcoin quickly recovered after falling below $100,000. It regained its previous high of $115,000, with a 5% increase over 24 hours. At the same time, Ethereum also approached $4,200, with a daily increase of over 11%.

This reversal occurred against the backdrop of a 2.5 trillion dollars in total market value evaporating from the global cryptocurrency market on the previous day.

According to CoinGlass data, within the last 24 hours, more than 180,000 people suffered margin calls, with total losses reaching $642 million. Among these trades, the largest margin call loss occurred in the Binance ETHUSD pair, amounting to $7.042 million.

The main culprit behind this collapse was the trade war between Trump and China.

At dawn today in Beijing time, Trump announced that the United States would impose 100% tariffs on China starting from November 1st. This news immediately triggered panic-selling of global risk assets. Not only cryptocurrencies, but traditional financial markets also suffered significant losses. The S&P 500 index fell by 182.61 points, or 2.71%, marking the largest weekly decline since May. The NASDAQ index plummeted by 3.5%, achieving its worst daily decline since April 10th. Hong Kong Hang Seng Index futures fell by 5% overnight, while the FTSE A50 index also declined by 4.26% throughout the night. The ten-day shutdown of the U.S. federal government, along with cautious easing signals from Federal Reserve officials, further dampened market sentiment. The root cause of this market turmoil can be traced back to October 9th. China’s Ministry of Commerce’s statement regarding rare earth exports did not trigger excessive reactions in the market at that time. However, 26 hours later, Trump’s comments on social media completely changed the situation. Trump threatened to significantly increase tariffs on China, and this statement instantly sparked panic in the market. The value of the S&P 500 index evaporated by $2.5 trillion, and the cryptocurrency market collapsed. Bitcoin plummeted from its historical high of $126,000 to around $100,000. Market analysis firm The Kobeissi Letter pointed out that China’s rare earth policies do not prohibit exports altogether; applications that meet certain criteria will still be approved.The institution believes that Trump’s tariff threats are more of a negotiation tactic, and the likelihood of them being implemented is extremely low. This “Trump Tariff Drama” pattern has been referred to as a “TACO” trading strategy, short for “Trump Always Chickens Out”. According to GF Securities, since April this year, such TACO trades have occurred multiple times. For example, the US threatened to impose tariffs, but then delayed them repeatedly; it also threatened to fire Powell, but soon relented again.

According to GF Securities, during this period, the crypto market experienced one of the most severe deleveraging episodes in history.

On the evening of the 10th, the price of Bitcoin plummeted from around $117,000 to below $110,000, with losses exceeding $10,000. By early morning on the 11th, Bitcoin’s value had dropped by 13.5% in just 24 hours, reaching a low of $105,930.

During the same period, other major cryptocurrencies also suffered significant losses: Ethereum dropped by more than 20%, reaching a low of around $3,380; Ripple, Binance Coin, and Dogecoin saw losses of over 30%. Smaller and less liquid altcoins experienced even steeper declines, with many small tokens losing almost all of their value within minutes.

“It’s simply a cruel day,” said Ram Ahluwalia, founder of Lumida Wealth. Experienced traders compared this sudden collapse to “the return of the Black Thursday of the COVID-19 pandemic”, describing its impact as unprecedented in recent years.

过去几个月，比特币及主要加密资产价格屡创新高，其背后相当一部分增量资金并非长期配置，而是通过合约杠杆、加密借贷和流动性挖矿等方式涌入的投机资本。当利空消息袭来，这些高杠杆的多头仓位首当其冲：一旦关键技术支撑位被跌穿，强制平仓接连触发，抛售盘雪崩式扩大，市场迅速陷入连锁踩踏。

早在本周三，市场分析机构Glassnode就警告道：“本轮比特币上涨行情带来的杠杆率上升和拥挤的看涨头寸可能意味着短期脆弱性日益加剧。”

山寨币血流成河

如果比特币的跌幅已经令人震惊，那么山寨币市场只能用“血流成河”来形容。

以太坊一度从4363美元跳水至3468美元，跌幅超过20%。市值更小的加密货币更是惨不忍睹：

SUI：从3.5美元一根针扎到0.55美元;

WLD(AI龙头)：从1.4美元暴跌至0.26美元;

狗狗币：即使是市值前十的币种，也录得50%的跌幅。

部分小市值加密货币基本归零。加密市场总市值短时蒸发超6000亿美元，市场陷入深度下跌后的修复阶段。

市场展望与策略调整

对于后市走势，分析师们普遍呈现乐观态度。

Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee expects Bitcoin’s price to reach $200,000 to $250,000 by the end of the year. Sun Life Bank’s Geoff Kendrick reiterated his target of $200,000 for Bitcoin’s price at the end of the year. Technical analysis also supports the idea of a rebound. Around $109,000 is considered a key support level, which coincides with the miner shutdown price. Similar levels in history often lead to strong rebounds. The option market’s Delta skew (put-call ratio) has increased to 12%, exceeding the threshold for extreme panic. Historically, prices have averaged a 40% rebound within one month after reaching this level. However, there are still many uncertainties in the market. Federal Reserve policy could change unexpectedly. If inflation rises and interest rate cuts are delayed, cryptocurrencies may face another downward trend. In less than 20 hours, this investor doubled his capital and made a profit of $30 million. He then quickly sold off another $60 million. Such precise trading tactics mean that even the most experienced crypto investors don’t know his identity. This has become one of the most legendary transactions during this epic decline. The crypto market is still in the process of recovering from the severe drop. Bitcoin’s price is fluctuating around $113,000.That mysterious giant whale has already left with $60 million. As a result, 1.6 million investors are left to search for any remaining hope in the ruins.

What is certain is that the cryptocurrency market remains characterized by high risk and volatility. Even during bull markets, not everyone can achieve success completely.