Gemini has obtained licenses for trading on the contract market. The exchange is now engaged in a fi

On December 10, 2025, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) officially granted Gemini its DCM license. This development immediately sparked discussions in the crypto community regarding compliant derivatives and prediction markets. Once licensed, Gemini will be the first to launch a prediction market platform called Gemini Titan. The initial products will be the simplest and most intuitive binary event contracts, allowing users to bet on the outcomes of real-world events. What’s more significant is that Gemini has indicated that it plans to expand its offerings in the future to include more sophisticated derivatives such as CFTC-regulated crypto futures, options, and perpetual contracts. With regulatory reforms becoming more lenient and institutional demand growing, this step could significantly reshape the landscape of crypto derivatives in the United States. It also marks a transition from “edge innovation” to mainstream financial markets for prediction markets.

I. Gemini’s Steps towards Prediction Markets

Gemini applied for its DCM license on March 10, 2020. After more than five years, Gemini finally obtained this license.

Gemini’s CEO, Tyler Winklevoss, said, “Today’s approval marks the completion of a five-year process for obtaining licenses. This marks a new chapter for Gemini. We are grateful to President Trump for ending the restrictions on cryptocurrencies imposed by the Biden administration. We also thank Vice Chairwoman Pham for her hard work and dedication in helping to realize President Trump’s vision of making the United States a global center for cryptocurrency innovation. Ms. Pham has positioned the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission as an institution that supports business and innovation, which will enable the U.S. to remain leader in these emerging and dynamic markets. It’s exciting to have a president who supports cryptocurrencies, innovation, and the U.S., along with a financial regulatory body that also supports the U.S. interests.”

Winklevoss believes that “the potential of prediction markets could be as large, or even larger, than that of traditional capital markets.”

In the future, Gemini Titan will venture into the field of prediction markets, offering event contracts in the form of simple “yes” or “no” questions. Soon, Gemini customers in the U.S. will be able to use their dollars in their accounts to participate in these market contracts through Gemini’s web interface. The functionality of trading event contracts through Gemini’s mobile app will also be available soon.

未来，Gemini Titan将探索拓展面向美国客户的衍生品产品，包括加密货币期货、期权和永续合约。永续合约是加密货币行业交易最广泛的衍生品合约，过去十年在亚洲和其他非美国地区获得了巨大的成功和市场认可。Gemini Titan正期待将这些创新且流动性极高的合约引入美国市场。

预测市场利用群体智慧和市场力量，更准确地预测未来。它们奖励市场参与者提供真实见解，并通过汇总和传播更准确的信息，帮助他们更好地为未来做好准备。进军这一新兴且蓬勃发展的领域，是 Gemini 为客户打造一站式金融超级应用的又一举措。

二、Gemini 为此牌照做了哪些努力?

1、与CFTC和解

2022年，CFTC 在曼哈顿联邦法院对 Gemini 提起诉讼，指控 Gemini 在 2017 年为推动首个受美国监管的比特币期货合约落地时，就自身防止比特币价格操纵的能力向监管机构做出了 “虚假和误导性的陈述”。该事件可以被看作Gemini 的DCM 牌照申请过程中的潜在障碍。

直至今年1 月，Gemini 主动与 CFTC 达成和解，支付 500 万美元和解金。Gemini 的举动显示了其配合CFTC监管的态度，并藉此结束了与 CFTC 推进牌照审批相关的关键纠纷，为后续 DCM 牌照获批扫除了重大阻碍。

2、注重合规布局

In December 2024, Gemini obtained the registration status of a European virtual asset service provider from the Malta Financial Services Authority (MFSA). In May of this year, Gemini also received an investment company license from the MFSA. Once Gemini begins operating, it will be able to provide regulated derivatives services within the EU and the European Economic Area, in accordance with the MiFID II regulations governing traditional financial markets. This license brings Gemini one step closer to offering regulated derivatives services to retail and institutional clients in the EU and the European Economic Area.

In August, Gemini obtained a license from the Malta Crypto Assets Market Regulation Authority (MiCA), further supporting the company’s expansion in Europe. Gemini stated, “This approval marks an important milestone in our regulatory expansion in Europe. It will enable us to offer safe and reliable cryptocurrency products to customers in over 30 European countries and regions. Clear regulation is essential for the widespread adoption of cryptocurrencies worldwide, and the implementation of MiCA demonstrates that Europe is one of the most innovative and forward-looking regions in this area.”

Although Gemini has obtained licenses from non-American authorities, these licenses help to establish its image as a company that operates in compliance with regulations. This will be beneficial for Gemini when it eventually obtains a DCM license from the US CFTC.

3. Successful IPO

In June 2025, Gemini secretly submitted a draft S-1 form to the SEC. In August, the prospectus was officially released. Gemini highlighted its “fully compliant operations” as a key selling point. The document detailed its business presence in over 60 countries and regions, services for trading more than 70 types of crypto assets, along with data on 13 million users and $50 billion in managed assets. This demonstrated Gemini’s ability to handle various risks despite its large scale of operations. On September 12th, Gemini began trading on the market. After going public, the strict regulatory framework set by the SEC provided Gemini with “third-party certification” regarding its compliance. As a publicly traded company, Gemini is required to disclose financial reports quarterly, including details about revenue sources such as transaction fees (accounting for approximately two-thirds of total revenue), operational costs, and user growth trends.

Additionally, which exchanges are expanding their services into prediction markets?

One example is Robinhood. As early as 2024, Robinhood collaborated with Kalshi to launch prediction market services. In March of this year, Robinhood and Kalshi jointly introduced a central platform for trading event contracts, further expanding their partnership in this area. As of November 2025, over 1 million users had traded over 9 billion contracts within this platform. In just the third quarter of 2025 alone, 2.3 billion contracts were processed. Revenue from this project has been significant for Robinhood; in September, the annual revenue from event contract products exceeded $200 million, with expectations of reaching over $300 million by the end of the year.

On November 26th, Reuters reported that Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group plan to acquire a company related to the bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX, with the aim of entering the prediction market sector. Robinhood and Susquehanna will acquire a 90% stake in LedgerX. LedgerX continued to maintain its solvency even after FTX collapsed in 2022. This acquisition could give Robinhood the ability to compete with large-scale prediction platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

Robinhood will become the “holding partner” of this new initiative. Meanwhile, Susquehanna will act as the “first-day liquidity provider,” ensuring that customers have reliable trading partners.

Analysts believe that this new agreement will allow Robinhood and Susquehanna to directly control the systems needed to create and settle contract-based trades, and to settle transactions according to their own rules. This is particularly important at a time when Wall Street, sports leagues, and cryptocurrency companies are all striving to shape a regulated investment ecosystem.

Note: Strictly speaking, Robinhood isn’t a traditional exchange. Instead, it’s a brokerage firm that connects to multiple exchanges. Therefore, this description also applies to Robinhood.

2. Crypto.com

On December 3rd, sports clothing company Fanatics announced that it would launch a fan-driven prediction market platform called Fanatics Markets through a strategic partnership with Crypto.com. Similar to Polymarket and Kalshi, Fanatics Markets will allow users to trade contracts related to predicting outcomes of real-world events.

Fanatics Markets will be launched in two phases. The first phase has already been launched, covering event contracts in the fields of sports, finance, economics, and politics. The second phase will begin early next year, during which Fanatics Markets will expand its offerings to include event contracts in areas such as cryptocurrencies, stocks/IPOs, climate issues, popular culture, technology/AI, movies, and music.

Travis McGhee, CEO of Crypto.com, said, “Crypto.com was the first to introduce a sports prediction market. By establishing innovative partnerships with top platforms like Fanatics, we continue to expand our range of services. We are thrilled to be Fanatics’ preferred partner. Together, we will provide fans with a safe and compliant way to access prediction markets.”

On November 13th, Coinbase and Kalshi announced a partnership, allowing Coinbase to act as the host for Kalshi’s event contracts based on USDC.

On November 19th, technology researcher Jane Manchun Wong claimed to have found data indicating that Coinbase is working on creating a prediction market platform. It is possible that Coinbase is currently integrating directly with Kalshi.

The leaked images show a standard prediction market interface, with Coinbase’s logo. It seems that users can participate using USDC or dollars. Other categories include economics, sports, science, politics, and technology.

This means that Coinbase’s event-based contracts are likely to be subject to comprehensive regulation in the United States. Payments will be made in cash, and the platform will benefit from Kalshi’s existing approval process. These contracts will also be integrated with Coinbase accounts and custody wallets. Ultimately, all transactions will be settled in USDC, a currency jointly created and promoted by Coinbase.

In conclusion, Gemini has finally obtained a DCM license from the CFTC, marking its entry into the prediction market sector. This represents a significant step forward for cryptocurrencies, as they move from a state of uncontrolled growth to a more regulated environment. It also demonstrates the continued popularity of the prediction market as a promising industry. After five years of efforts to obtain the necessary licenses, Gemini is finally ready to enter the market. It’s only a matter of time before other major crypto companies like Coinbase also join the prediction market and take advantage of this opportunity.