Bitmain: Success due to BCH, failure also due to BCH

Bitmain was once one of the most glorious legends in the world of encryption. Thanks to its powerful computing chips and early investments in Bitcoin’s rise, it almost monopolized the global mining market. However, a turning point in its fate came from its own “familiar battlefield” – Bitcoin Cash (BCH). In those days, Bitmain strongly supported the fork of BCH, hoping to seize control over Bitcoin. But it didn’t expect the market to be cold, competition to intensify, and prices to plummet. This risky investment turned into a heavy burden for Bitmain.

Today, as the BTC ecosystem rises again and mining competition intensifies, Bitmain’s story serves as a mirror: its success stems from its forward-looking strategies, but its failures are due to excessive risk-taking. Its rise and fall not only reflect the fate of the company but also reveal the ambitions and costs of the entire cryptocurrency industry.

Recently, documents related to Bitmain’s initial public offering were circulated online. It was revealed that in 2017, Bitmain used 67% of its cash flow to purchase BCH. As a result, Bitmain suffered a loss of $299 million due to the decline in BCH prices. The mining business, which accounted for 18.4% of Bitmain’s revenue in 2016, only accounted for 3.3% in the first quarter of 2018.

It is reported that Bitmain currently holds more than 1 million BCH. These funds are becoming a heavy burden for Bitmain as it attempts to go public in Hong Kong.

On September 1st, BCH conducted stress tests after the hard fork in May, adjusting the block limit to 32MB. These tests aimed to determine the maximum amount of transactions that the BCH network could handle, thereby demonstrating the commercial value of the BCH mainnet to the world. But behind the scenes, Bitmain and BCH are preparing for a storm.

一条代码引发的分裂

8月20日，BCH用户量最大的客户端Bitcoin ABC发布0.18.0版本。成为了此次危机的导火索。

往前更早两周的时候，Bitcoin ABC开发团队宣称将在0.18.0版本增加共识更改，将增加一个名为OP_CHECKDATASIG的新操作码，该团队称这改进了BCH脚本语言，允许验证来自区块链外部的信息，通过它可以在BCH上实现预言机和跨链原子合约功能。并计划在2018年11月15日实施硬分叉。

这引发了BCH社区中一些反对声音，而有“澳洲中本聪”之称的Nchain的首席科学家CSW(Craig·Steven·Wright)是其中的中坚力量，随即Bitcoin ABC 首席开发者Amaury Séchet被BCH Slack社区踢出局。紧接着 8月16日，Nchain宣布了自己的BCH分叉Bitcoin SV (Bitcoin Satoshi Vision ，SV)，Bitcoin SV将把BCH的区块大小从32MB增加到128MB，与此同时，为了恢复最初的比特币协议，该版本还恢复了四个“中本聪的原始操作码”。对此，CSW表示“绝不妥协”!

这意味着如果双方达不成共识，BCH将可能在不久后分叉为BCH ABC、BCH SV和现存BCH三条链，而BCH社区也将如比特币硬分叉前，分裂成多个阵营，对此不少BCH社区成员表示等待比特大陆和Viabtc等矿池提出关于Bitcoin ABC代码的修改意见。

同室操戈还是同床异梦?

On August 1, 2017, due to disagreements between those who favored technology-based solutions, those who preferred smaller blocks, and those who supported larger blocks, Bitcoin’s consensus was unable to be reached. At 2:14 pm Beijing time that day, ViaBTC, a company invested by Bitmain, mined the first BCH block, resulting in a hard fork of Bitcoin.

At that time, the miners still consisted of Bitmain and Roger Ver, the “God of Bitcoin”. CSW was also invited to support BCH actively. Even during the one-year anniversary event for BCH on August 1st this year, Wu Jihang joined forces with Roger Ver, founder of Bitcoin.com, Jiang Zhuor, founder of BTC.top, Amaury Séchet, lead developer of Bitcoin ABC, and CSW to attend the event. However, problems had already begun to arise by then.

In an interview in June, Wu Jihang refused to answer questions about CSW’s role in BCH development. After the BCH smart contract solution Wormhole was launched during the one-year anniversary event, CSW began to publicly criticize the project, claiming that it destroyed BCH by burning BCH in exchange for Wormhole tokens, thereby forcing users to switch to Wormhole.

Shortly after CSW announced Bitcoin SV, Wu Jihang, the founder of Bitmain and a supporter of Bitcoin ABC, refuted CSW’s views. He argued that CSW must be a fake version of Satoshi Nakamoto. But this still couldn’t prevent the division within the community.

目前BCH第一大矿池Coingeek公开表示支持CSW，同时也有消息称比特币耶稣Roger Ver站队CSW。在过去7天中Coingeek算力达到了25.4%，Roger Ver的Bitcoin.com算力为5.3%，如果二者联手，算力将达到30.7%。而比特大陆的BTC.com和antpool算力达到了15.7%，加上ViaBTC和BTC.top算力可达30.9%。

现在看来，曾经站在同一阵营支持BTC硬分叉的人，不过是同床异梦罢了。

多方乱局，黄雀在后

而随着争论的升级，越来越多的局外人加入到这场争论。

V神在8月21日推特中表示，BCH社区不应该为了‘避免分裂’就向Wright妥协。这对BCH社区来说反而是驱逐Wright的一次绝佳机会。几天后，V神再度表示“如果有证明CSW就是中本聪的确凿证据，那么我不会改变对CSW的看法，而是要改变对中本聪的看法了。”言下之意，V神并不看好CSW的方案。

曾经因为提议修改比特币共识机制POW，引入POW+POS机制而被比特币和BCH社区视为“异端”的Cobra，同样加入了这场混战当中。他表示Bitcoin ABC和Bitcoin SV的分叉将会损害BCH价值，导致对BCH的完全嘲讽，以及信任和信仰的大规模丧失。

However, Cobra quickly released a new BCH client called “Cobra Client”. They claimed that 25% of the computing power in the BCH network supported their upgrade, and the client has already begun testing with some companies. Cobra also mentioned that users can safely sell BCA (Bitcoin Cash ABC) and BCN (Bitcoin Cash Nchain/Coingeek) tokens, and their BCH holdings will not be affected in any way.

The news that Bitcoin’s “Jesus” Roger Ver had sided with CSW was also spread by Cobra via Twitter. Many believe that Cobra’s actions were merely a attempt to take advantage of the situation, and there is even suspicion of provoking conflicts between different groups.

Interests are the ultimate consensus point, but they also lead to major disagreements.

By now, it’s almost impossible to determine which side’s stance represents the best path for BCH. Each group has its own interests, just like the conflicts between the major mining companies represented by Bitmain, the core Bitcoin development team, and others behind the Bitcoin fork.

At that time, the “large block faction,” led by major mining companies, advocated expanding Bitcoin blocks from 1MB to 8MB. This approach wouldn’t require significant changes to the mining process, allowing for faster commercialization while reducing costs and increasing profits. Meanwhile, the “small block faction,” which favored a sidechain solution, had support from companies like Blockstream. However, they preferred a more decentralized solution. For the major mining companies, this approach seemed less viable due to its longer cycle and lack of commercial potential, thus harming their own interests.

现在看来，比特币的硬分叉几乎是没有悬念的， 当时结成一派的大矿主们最大、最深层的共识在于利益， 而现在深陷风暴中心的比特大陆，与其他阵营之间的分歧，以及多方阵营争论的混乱局面，背后未必没有“利益”二字的身影。

BCH和比特大陆的成败

周年庆上，吴忌寒还在信心满满的表态将通过更加灵活的一些脚本去支持多种代币在BCH的区块链上进行发行,并将在需要时对BCH毫不犹豫的扩容。短短一个月后，比特大陆就不得不在IPO的关键时期，面对社区分裂带来的困扰。

BCH可以说是比特大陆的亲儿子，从BCH诞生起比特大陆就从来没有掩饰过让其取代比特币成为加密数字货币新“本位币”的野心。期间，比特大陆通过投入算力、资金注入、商业推广、巨头站台等方式全方位支持BCH。在3月份的一次演讲中，吴忌寒称比特大陆会投资20-30家运用区块链技术发行货币的私有中央银行，被认为是BCH“篡位”BTC的关键一步，可以设想的是，如果BCH成功上位，这也就意味着掌握全网绝大多数BCH算力的比特大陆可能加冕为加密数字货币领域的“央行”。

Once the BCH fork occurs, will Bitmain’s path to success become just a fantasy? After the Ethereum fork, the original Ethereum chain, ETC, was far behind ETH in terms of both price and market value. Currently, ETC’s price remains around $13, with a market value of approximately $130 million. In contrast, ETH’s price is around $280, with a market value of about $28.5 billion. Similarly, after the Monero fork, Monero’s original chain’s market value plummeted from several billion dollars to just a few tens of millions.

In other words, Bitmain holders who possess more than 1 million BCH will inevitably face a series of challenges after the fork. During the months spent seeking approval for an IPO, the profits or losses associated with cryptocurrency assets will also have a significant impact on Bitmain’s ultimate outcome.

Just a few days ago, Tencent, SoftBank, and DST Global denied any involvement in Bitmain’s pre-IPO efforts. Now, even greater difficulties lie ahead for Bitmain.