155 altcoins are awaiting approval for ETFs: Can institutional funds awaken the “sleeping bull marke

Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas predicts that the number of crypto ETFs/ETPs will increase from the current around 155 to over 200 within the next 12 months. This “ETF competition” is spreading from Bitcoin and Ethereum to more mainstream altcoins (several products are currently in the queue for approval).

This trend will provide institutional investors with access to assets like Solana and XRP, which have more developed liquidity and derivative markets. However, this does not mean that smaller tokens will benefit equally—newly launched altcoin ETFs are more likely to face challenges such as insufficient liquidity, widening price differences, and significant volatility. At the same time, recent regulatory changes and relaxed rules regarding exchange listings, along with billions of dollars flowing into Bitcoin/ETH ETFs, are attracting more “traditional capital” to regulated crypto products. This tends to lead investors to invest in tokens with higher market capitalization and active trading volumes, rather than diversifying their investments across a large number of small tokens.

In summary: Institutional channels will help some altcoins gain a more mature market position, but overall, the situation will be more “diversified” rather than “inclusive.” Leading altcoins are expected to benefit, while smaller tokens still face higher risks of volatility and liquidation.

● Historical context

● DATs: Collateral risk and MNAV observations

● Reasons for optimism or pessimism regarding altcoin ETFs

● How did we get here? Key catalysts

● Macroeconomic impact: $300 billion in stablecoin liquidity will drive a bull market in DeFi

● Contraceptive signals

● What to watch out for during the launch of ETFs

● Three highly influential ETFs that deserve attention

. Historical context

. Since the introduction of the first ETFs, there have been significant changes in the crypto ETF industry. The total net value of US-based Bitcoin ETFs has exceeded $146 billion, solidifying Bitcoin’s dominance in the crypto market, with a share of 59%. Ethereum ETFs rank second, holding approximately $25 billion in assets. The cumulative net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have now exceeded $50 billion, and daily capital inflows continue to be observed in the market.

Before the emergence of crypto ETFs, traditional financial institutions held digital asset exposure through platforms like GBTC and MSTR. This led to the creation of Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs), which accumulated specific altcoins such as ETH, SOL, XRP, etc., allowing investors to gain exposure through stocks. DATs serve as a bridge between the pre-ETF era and today’s pending altcoin ETFs. They also represent a potential risk area.

DATs: Risk assessment using MNAV

The market value-to-net asset value ratio (MNAV) is important, as it indicates how easily a DAT can raise funds. When this ratio is greater than 1, it becomes easier to obtain debt and purchase more tokens. If the ratio remains below 1, financing will become difficult, and selling reserves becomes a real risk.

请密切关注顶级 DATs 的 MNAV 和溢价、PIPE 解锁日期、流动性，以及 10-Q 报表或运营更新中的任何资产负债表。压力也可能蔓延;小型 DAT 的麻烦可能影响较大的 DAT，或者顶层的问问题可能向下产生涟漪效应。

山寨币 ETF 的看涨和看跌理由

看涨理由

山寨币 ETF 的兴起可能很快为市场带来重大的流动性提振。以 ProShares CoinDesk 20 ETF 为例;它包含了一些重要资产，如 HBAR、ICP、XRP 和 SOL。总共有 155 种追踪 35 种加密货币的 ETP 等待批准。大量流动性涌入这些 ETF 将推高相关山寨币的价格，以延续比特币和以太坊 ETF 的涨势。

此外 ETF 的资金流入驱动了市场对底层代币的关注，促使一些配置者购买更高贝塔的 DATs。DATs 随后筹集资金并积累更多代币，这可能进一步强化山寨币的叙事。更重要的是像贝莱德、富达、VanEck 和 Grayscale 这样的发行方提供了一个可信的网关。这可能释放出比仅通过交易所访问更大、更稳定的投资。

看跌理由

另一方面山寨币难以重拾其通常的牛市炒作热度，这种需求疲软可能会限制其表现。CoinDesk 20 指数突显了这个问题：BTC 和 ETH 以 29% 和 22% 的权重占据主导地位，而像 ICP 和 FIL 这样的山寨币在篮子中仅占 0.2%。这种集中度意味着更多资金将流向主流币种，使其受益更多。

此外，如果资金从 DAT 股票转向山寨币 ETF，DAT 的净资产价值(MNAV)可能降至 1 以下，导致资金枯竭。这可能迫使出售储备金，从而对那些山寨币产生直接卖出压力。

推出时的微观结构： 即使在中期看涨的前景下，也要预期在 ETF 上市前后会出现 24-72 小时的「利好出尽是利空」的波动。

我们如何走到这一步?关键催化剂

对山寨币 ETF 日益增长的兴趣是由多种因素共同推动的：

9 月 17 日，美国证券交易委员会(SEC)引入了「商品信托份额通用上市标准」。该标准缩短了新 ETF 的审批时间，并使过程更具可预测性。得益于 SEC 的通用上市标准，我们可能在政府重新开门时在短时家内看到多个 ETF 获得批准。

更早之前，在 7 月份，SEC 允许非比特币加密 ETF 进行实物赎回，使其与传统商品 ETF 保持一致。减少了流动性摩擦，并吸引了更多机构资金。

比特币和以太坊现货 ETF 的成功也推动了更广泛的采用，到 2025 年中，59% 的机构将其投资组合的 10% 以上配置于数字资产。

经验法则(严格标准)： 受 ISG 监管的现货交易场所，或至少六个月的受监管期货交易且具有数据共享，或在现有上市 ETF 中跟踪度达到 40% 以上。这为许多主要和中型市值的代币预先扫清了障碍。

宏观影响：3000 亿美元稳定币流动性将推动 DeFi 牛市

截至 2025 年 10 月，全球有近 3000 亿美元的稳定币流动性在流通。这一庞大的基础设施为 ETF 驱动的资本催化剂奠定了基础，将机构资金引入 DeFi 生态系统并放大回报。

3000 亿美元稳定币流动性与预期的山寨币 ETF 资金流入之间的协同效应可能产生乘数效应。例如在比特币 ETF 中观察到的资金流入与市值乘数，表明每 1 美元的 ETF 资本可能使市值膨胀数美元。如果山寨币 ETF 获得关注，这可能释放数百亿美元，到 2025 年底将总加密市值推向新高。

随着特朗普时代政策下监管清晰度的提高，机构资本的涌入可能极大地推动 DeFi 协议，特别是那些整合了如 LINK 和 HBAR 等资产的协议，这些资产连接了传统金融和区块链，或者像 REX-Osprey 为 TAO、INJ 等山寨币申请的质押 ETF。

此外，在美元走软和风险资产接近历史高点的背景下，ETF 为机构提供了一条便捷的路径，使其能够沿着风险曲线从 BTC 轮动到大盘山寨币，然后到中盘股和 DeFi。

乘数警告： 流入资金对估值的影响依赖于持续的净创建和健康的资金基差。DAT 压力(MNAV < 1 或解锁事件)可能暂时抑制该乘数。

逆向信号

作为一贯的逆向投资者，Jim Cramer 最近敦促投资者抛售加密货币，转投股票。鉴于他在关键转折点上出错的历史记录，我认为现在是时候更加坚定地持有加密资产了。

担忧 ETF 会蚕食 DATs 并引发清算的情绪，与前所未有的强大市场准入和清晰度、ETF 通道和审批队列并存。如果首周资金流入保持强劲，这种不匹配可能构成看涨格局。历史上对 DAT 压力的高度担忧与改善的市场准入并存，往往标志着积累阶段，而非市场顶部。

ETF 推出期间需要关注什么

● 第 0-3 天： 预期抢先交易和「利好出尽是利空」的风险。关注净创建量与赎回量以及屏幕显示的买卖价差。

● 第 1-4 周： 如果净流入保持强劲，且现货价格与永续合约价格保持一致，则逢低买入的偏向可能持续。

● 轮动信号：The higher weekly highs and lows of other currencies compared to BTC indicate that demand for altcoins is increasing. If this trend persists, it’s likely that investors will continue to hold a significant portion of their assets in BTC.

● Cross-asset strategies: The premium offered by DAT improves as more funds flow into ETFs, creating a positive feedback loop.

Three highly influential ETFs worth paying attention to are

● Solana: Solana is one of the most promising altcoins that can benefit from diversification, aside from BTC and ETH ETFs. Among the 155 crypto ETFs awaiting approval, 23 target Solana. This strong institutional demand suggests potential capital flows towards Solana. Therefore, tracking Solana ETFs is one of the most important ETFs to watch, with the potential for significant returns.

● ProShares CoinDesk 20 ETF: This ETF tracks 20 top cryptocurrencies, including BTC, ETH, and altcoins like XRP, thereby diversifying institutions’ exposure.

● REX-Osprey 21-Asset ETF: This ETF aims to provide exposure to specific cryptocurrencies and offers staking options for tokens such as ADA, AVAX, DOT, NEAR, SEI, SUI, TAO, and HYPE.

The fourth quarter may see a rapid increase in ETF-related activities, particularly in areas like DeFi. Whether altcoins can capture the same demand as BTC or not, this trend is undeniable. Stay confident and prepare for the upcoming altcoin ETF market.