Bitcoin rushed to $100,000 in weeks? Analysts analyze the logic of "October market"

Bitcoin fell below the US$84,000 mark, analysts were divided on the "October market"

Bitcoin hit a high of US$87,197 last Friday before falling back below US$84,000. At the same time, analysts have vastly different views on whether Bitcoin can rebound and return to the $100,000 mark in October.

SideShift founder predicts: The shift in attention will push Bitcoin to hit US$100,000 in the short term

SideShift founder Andreas Brekken predicts that as investors turn their attention to the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin will reach US$100,000 in a few weeks. He told the media that he expected to usher in a strong "Uptober" and see Bitcoin prices break the 100,000 mark within a few weeks.

Bracken believes that investors who no longer see themselves as early participants in artificial intelligence transactions may turn their focus on risky assets to cryptocurrencies. He described the phenomenon as a "shift in attention" and attributed the previous loss of liquidity to SpaceX's initial public offering.

Bitfinex analysis: It is crucial to hold on to US$84,000, otherwise the bears may face squeeze.

The Bitfinex team pointed out that US$84,000 is the current key support level. If spot buying increases, late short positions that are not closed in time may be trapped below this critical level.

According to the latest update from Bitfinex Alpha, Bitcoin fell below $84,000 overnight before the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting were released on October 7, triggering a wave of forced liquidations. In the past 24 hours, the total clearing amount in the crypto futures market reached US$510.6 million, of which the clearing amount of long positions reached US$441.76 million. Analysts said about $300 million in long liquidations occurred within an hour of Bitcoin falling below support.

Despite the sell-off, Bitfinex reported that interest in open interest in major perpetual contracts trading venues increased by only 0.5% on the morning of October 7 compared with October 5. Analysts interpreted this as evidence that fresh transactions replaced long positions cleared by the market. Since the annualized funding rate has dropped slightly but remains in a positive range of 5% to 6.5%, the team believes that most of the new positions come from short sellers.

"If BTC holds on to US$84,000, late short positions will be trapped below this critical level." Analysts pointed out that the increase in spot purchases could put pressure on these traders and push Bitcoin towards even above its opening price of $87,722 at the beginning of the year.

Bitfinex's previous assessment showed that the US$84,000 cost base cluster had 867,000 BTC, which is the largest concentration identified in its analysis. The team also described this price as a watershed, above which 75% of Bitcoin supply is profitable.

Regarding the failure to effectively break through US$87,197 last Friday, Bitfinex pointed out that the rise at that time relied mainly on futures trading. Open interest increased by $2.1 billion in the 24 hours before the September non-farm payrolls report; after the report was released, they shrank by $1.5 billion. Lacking enough spot purchases to maintain gains, analysts said Bitcoin retreated to around $84,000 after being rejected below the annual opening price for the third time in two weeks.

Its benchmark scenario remains a consolidation between US$84,000 and US$87,722, and the upside breakthrough depends on whether ETF inflows return to the September average of US$340 million. The team said in a report on October 6 that if several trading days attract at least US$340 million in ETF inflows and the daily closing price stands above US$87,722, it will support the price towards US$90,000.

The assessment also used Checkonchain's flow-weighted calculation to find that the average buying cost for ETF investors is approximately US$84,320. According to Bitfinex statistics, holders were below the cost line for 233 consecutive days before regaining the level on September 21. Analysts believe that a return to break-even point helps explain why buying has waned, as inflows have historically tended to accelerate when ETF investors have a larger profit cushion.

SDL Labs Martin Lee: A single week's outflow is not enough to shake long-term optimistic expectations

DWF Labs内容数据洞察负责人马丁·李（Martin Lee）表示，他对周一比特币ETF约9000万美元的流出“不太担心”。他指出，9月21日至25日是今年基金最强的流入周，净流入约24亿美元，随后一周又流入2.41亿美元。在他看来，前两个月均产生了强劲的流入。

据Farside Investors 9月26日报告记录的数据，9月21日至25日的总流入额为23.9亿美元。其中，贝莱德的IBIT获得11.6亿美元，富达的FBTC吸引7.016亿美元，ARK 21Shares的ARBK增加2.947亿美元。

纵观全年，尽管净流入达12亿美元，但在190个交易日中有93天（约48%）出现负流。对于李而言，周度和月度总量的权重高于单日表现，尽管他指出仍需监控这些流出情况。相比之下，Bitfinex的关注点在于新购买的节奏：数据显示，每周流入量已从23.9亿美元骤降至2.411亿美元。

Nansen与Bitget Wallet：历史涨幅不能保证特定日期形成底部

Nansen高级研究分析师杰克·肯尼斯（Jake Kennis）表示，自2013年以来，比特币在十月的中位数回报率约为14%，在过去13个十月中有10个月录得正收益。然而，肯尼斯拒绝了这些月度结果能将10月5日确立为可靠转折点的观点。

"Ultimately, liquidity, position structure, macro conditions and underlying needs are more important drivers than on any given date." Kenneth cited Bitcoin's 2.7% rise in seven days as a positive momentum entering October, while warning that this does not confirm a calendar-driven bottom. He views improved positions and increased risk appetite after September as possible contributors to the historical "October Market" pattern.

Lacie Zhang, director of research at Bitget Wallet, said: "This year, the bottom of Bitcoin may have formed around $57,000. From this moment on, what matters more is macro liquidity and the direction in which ETFs are flowing, rather than any particular seasonal date." She also pointed out that even if the market cycle of Bitcoin is followed, the bottoming process of altcoins may take longer.

In an October 5 assessment of Bitcoin's conditional upside, Zhang pointed out that if U.S. Treasury yields fall and inflation data supports weak non-farm payrolls readings, US$90,000 to US$93,000 could be a potential target. She requires a daily or weekly closing price to stabilize above about $87,400, accompanied by continued ETF inflows and stronger spot buying, to call it a convincing breakthrough.

Regarding the next U.S. inflation test, Bitfinex analysts pointed to the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on October 14, saying that the release of the data may end Bitcoin's current trading range.