SpaceX (SPCX) is included in the Nasdaq 100 Index, and its weight is expected to double, triggering

Core Points

Institutional interest is accelerating
Strong quarterly results and major deals

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It is expected that SpaceX's weight in the Nasdaq 100 Index will expand from approximately 1.28% to 2.82% after the index is rebalanced this month. The adjustment could prompt billions of dollars in new purchases by index tracking funds, including the $481 billion QQQ ETF.

During the second quarter, Baird Financial Group opened positions in 78,590 shares of SpaceX (SPCX) stock worth approximately US$13.4 million. The company's second-quarter revenue was US$7.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 91.9%, and earnings loss per share was US$0.09, which was better than market expectations for a loss per share of US$0.26. The Wall Street consensus rating is "moderate buy", with analysts targeting an average price of $221.06.

SpaceX (SPCX) opened at $151.21 on Friday, well below the analyst consensus price target of $221.06, and the aerospace company is approaching a major adjustment to its Nasdaq 100 weight due in late September. Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX

Based on simulations released late Friday by Nasdaq's Global Index Watch, the upcoming index rebalancing is expected to increase SpaceX's weighting from approximately 1.28% to approximately 2.82%. Official confirmation of final weights will be announced later this month.

The adjustment has significant implications because funds that passively track indexes must readjust their portfolios to reflect the composition of the Nasdaq 100. These include Invesco QQQ Trust, which manages approximately $481 billion in assets. At the end of the second quarter, total assets with the benchmark Nasdaq 100 were approximately $1.7 trillion.

Financial analysts predict that this rebalancing will bring billions of dollars in new SpaceX purchase demand to ETFs and index funds. SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 Index in July, but due to the limited number of shares available for public trading, most stocks are locked up and its initial allocation ratio remains low. Although Nasdaq revised its standards to allow large newly listed companies to join the index more quickly, SpaceX's limited free circulation limits its weight at entry.

With the lifting of lock-in restrictions, more SpaceX shares have entered public circulation. This growing free flow now drives higher exponential weights. There are additional locked expiration dates on the calendar that could push up the weight further in subsequent rebalancing.

SpaceX's first lock-up and lifting of the ban occurred in August, rather than coinciding its first financial report as a listed company. Despite concerns that a large number of new available shares could depress share prices, the expected selling pressure did not materialize. In another lock-up and lifting of the ban by company insiders the following week, they mainly kept their positions unchanged.

Institutional interest accelerates

Baird Financial Group established a new position including 78,590 shares of SpaceX (SPCX) throughout the second quarter, valued at approximately $13.4 million. During this period, a number of smaller institutional investors also opened positions, including Syntax Research, Atwood & Palmer and Marquette Asset Management.

SPCX's trading range over the past 12 months has ranged from $104.83 to $225.64. The stock's 50-day moving average is currently at $134.79, with a market value of approximately $1.98 trillion.

Strong quarterly results and major transactions

SpaceX announced second-quarter financial results on August 4, recording revenue of US$7.81 billion, a year-on-year surge of 91.9%. The company lost $0.09 in earnings per share, which was better than market expectations for a loss per share of $0.26 and $0.17 higher.

Wall Street analysts currently expect full-year earnings per share (EPS) of-0.15.

In terms of analyst coverage, Goldman Sachs maintained its "Buy" rating and a price target of $220, highlighting expansion opportunities in artificial intelligence, Starship and Starlink. Guggenheim and Argus also recently activated or upgraded their ratings to "buy."

The lifting of the ban covering 319 million shares has introduced potential downward pressure, with some analysts pointing out that the company is valued at about 98 times sales, which is a matter of concern.

SpaceX Chief Financial Officer Bret Johnsen has announced a new AI computing contract worth approximately $1.11 billion per month, with revenue generation starting on December 1.

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