Bitcoin fell to $82,700, Iran risk triggered a sell-off of treasury bonds

Bitcoin fell further in early U.S. trading, as geopolitical and interest rate pressures exacerbated market risk appetite and cooled down

At the beginning of the U.S. trading session on Wednesday, Bitcoin prices continued to fall, and the decline further widened. This trend was mainly driven by new geopolitical oil news, with international crude oil prices rising while the U.S. stock market falling back from record levels. At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields soared to decades-high highs-an environment that often leads to tighter global liquidity and higher discount rates on risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.

On the Bitstamp platform, BTC fell to US$82,734, the lowest trading price since October. Investors are digesting the latest concerns about shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz. According to Reuters, Brent crude climbed to $102 a barrel and WTI crude also rose to $91 after a statement issued by an adviser to the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Key Points

• Bitcoin fell to US$82,734 on Bitstamp, marking the lowest trading price since October.
• Brent crude oil ($102) and WTI crude oil ($91) rose after Reuters reported that Iran warned that it might block routes to the Strait of Hormuz that it deems "illegal."
• U.S. bond yields soared to a 24-year high (10-year: 5.36%;30-year: 5.73%), weighing on broader risk sentiment.
• The CryptoQuant report shows that open interest contracts have fallen nearly 10% since late September, indicating weakening demand in both the spot and derivatives markets.
• BTC's previous support near the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) of approximately $83,850 was described as ineffective as the price had fallen below the $83,000 mark.

Oil prices collide with interest rates, putting pressure on risk appetite in the crypto market

Reuters reported that an adviser to the commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps said that the Strait of Hormuz would be de facto "closed" to traffic that Iran deems illegal, emphasizing that this situation would continue until Iran's "legitimate demands" are met. The risks revealed by headlines are very straightforward: interruptions in key global shipping corridors typically drive up energy price expectations and exacerbate fears of persistent inflation.

As oil prices rise, investors are also beginning to pay attention to its impact on interest rates. TradingView data showed that U.S. Treasury yields rose again, with the 10-year yield reaching 5.36%, and the 30-year yield rising to 5.73%. These levels are described as the highest in about 24 years and reflect how markets closely tie energy shocks to long-term inflation and financing costs.

U.S. stocks also joined the decline after a strong start at the beginning of the week. Previous analysis linked this risk shift to U.S. stocks hitting record highs on Tuesday, with the S & P 500 falling about 0.6% to 7,773 during the trading session discussed here.

At the same time, a Goldman Sachs source warned in the article that rising energy prices could put pressure on long-term interest rates. For the crypto market, the broader revelation is not that Bitcoin has fallen simply because of rising oil prices, but that higher yields and避险型股市情绪的结合，会减少市场对投机性头寸的兴趣。

现货与衍生品需求双双走弱

除了宏观驱动因素外，比特币订单流的内部结构似乎也出现了恶化。文章指出，比特币仍无法突破与上方挂单流动性相关的87,000美元区域，并且这种犹豫与衍生品市场参与信号减弱的情况相符。

根据CryptoQuant的数据，自9月22日以来，比特币一直在类似的价格区间内徘徊，而未平仓合约下降了近10%——从约288亿美元降至约260亿美元。CryptoQuant将此模式解读为证据，表明在现货需求低迷的情况下，期货交易者不愿承担额外风险。

在实际操作中，在价格停滞期间未平仓合约的下降可能意味着愿意建立新多头仓位（或空头敞口）的交易者减少。对于市场参与者来说，这可以转化为动能变弱：如果杠杆未能 buildup 以吸收抛压，即使是适度的卖压也可能产生不成比例的巨大影响。

关键技术支撑位失守，BTC跌破83,000美元

此次下跌也带来了技术后果。讨论中的交易时段将BTC推低至83,000美元区域以下，这在日内时间框架上设定了月初以来的低点。

文章进一步指出，此前引用的与约83,850美元的21日简单移动平均线（SMA）相关的支撑位已被该走势打破。当关键的移动平均线支撑以这种方式断裂时，交易者通常会重新评估他们认为“公平”的价格区间，并寻找下一个广泛关注的参考水平。

CryptoQuant强调了在更高时间框架上需要关注的另一个区域：69,500美元，这被框定为比特币短期持有者的平均成本基础——即那些持有硬币长达约六个月不出售的实体。

后续观察重点：利率冲击是否会消退

比特币接下来的方向可能较少取决于加密特有的催化剂，而更多取决于宏观脉冲——即收益率上升伴随能源价格压力——是持续还是冷却。关注流动性敏感指标的投资人应密切关注影响国债收益率和石油预期的发展动态，以及未平仓合约是在价格找到支撑（或未能找到支撑）时企稳还是继续下降。