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DOGE Bitwise CEO： The poor performance of Dogecoin ETFs exposes a structural gap between institutional and retail investors
The CEO of Bitwise Asset Management pointed out that the poor performance of the company's Dogecoin ETF products reveals a structural gap between institutional/retail investors who access cryptocurrencies through broker-packaging channels and direct users who directly participate in asset transactions through crypto-native applications. This difference has practical implications for how issuers measure demand before bringing altcoin ETFs to the market.
The CEO's views show that the closure of the Bitwise Dogecoin ETF is not a problem with Dogecoin itself, but a mismatch between the product form and the audience. Buyers who buy ETFs through traditional brokerage accounts represent a very different behavioral group from self-custodial holders and app traders who drive the dogcoin community-driven market.
ETF access and application holding: Two distinct user behaviors
ETF buyers gain exposure to the price of Dogecoin without holding the asset, interacting with wallet infrastructure, or participating in the social dynamics of Dogecoin networks. The product is designed to facilitate regulated brokerage channels and attract investors who want to participate in price fluctuations rather than bear the friction of managing private keys or exchange accounts.
相比之下，加密应用用户的运作方式截然不同：他们直接持有DOGE，在不同钱包之间转移资金，在平台上打赏，并参与代币的投机和社区维度。历史上，这一群体通过散户协调买入推动了狗狗币的价格走势，因此，应用参与度比ETF资金流入更能直接反映实际需求。
CEO的表述暗示，模因币（Meme Token）的ETF需求可能无法映射到其底层社区的活动上。如果发行方在产品发布前将应用参与度作为需求信号，可能会高估经纪渠道的胃口。追踪其他山寨币ETF产品的SEC文件可通过EDGAR全文搜索系统进行，其中与狗狗币相关的S-1提交数量反映了发行方的胃口，而非已确认的投资者需求。
为何这种差距对山寨币ETF发行方至关重要
比特币和以太坊ETF吸引了已经通过期货、信托和期权等接近经纪业务的工具熟悉这些资产的投资者基础，从而在ETF买家和更广泛的持有者群体之间形成了自然的重叠。然而，狗狗币的ETF案例在结构上有所不同：该资产的核心 constituency 是零售应用用户和链上参与者，而不是作为交易所上市包装产品主要买家的机构配置者或经纪平台投资者。
如果Bitwise首席执行官的说法成立，这表明适用于比特币ETF的需求推断模型可能无法顺畅地转移到模因币上，因为在这些代币中，社区参与和ETF购买代表的是非重叠的受众群体。正在考虑类似产品的发行方（如Grayscale探索的山寨币包装产品）需要独立验证经纪渠道的需求，而不是从链上活动或应用下载指标中进行外推。
该声明未解答的问题
据报道的这一观察结果提出了现有证据无法解决的方法论问题。目前没有任何公开指标能够清晰衡量特定ETF买家基础与持有相同代币的加密应用活跃用户群体之间的重叠或缺乏重叠情况。在没有按投资者类型细分的资金流数据，或与狗狗币应用钱包数量进行基线比较的情况下，CEO的声明仍属于报道中的断言，而非量化发现。
以下情况将证实这种差距的存在：ETF资金持续低迷，同时链上狗狗币交易量居高不下；或者基于应用的DOGE持仓量上升，而ETF资产管理规模保持平稳。以下情况将使情况复杂化：证据表明，ETF仅仅是 launch 进入了一个与受众结构无关的广泛模因资产疲软期。
常见问题解答：狗狗币ETF与加密应用用户
文中提到的狗狗币ETF失败是指什么？
Bitwise launched a dogcoin ETF product, but failed to attract enough assets, causing it to close about a year after it went public. The CEO's comments attributed the result to a mismatch in audience structure rather than a denial of the value of Dogecoin.
What is the difference between ETF buyers and crypto app users?
ETF buyers gain price exposure through brokerage accounts and do not hold underlying assets; while crypto application users directly hold DOGE, trade on exchanges, and participate in community functions of tokens. These two groups of people have different motivations, risk tolerance, and access channels, and do not necessarily respond to the same demand catalysts.
Does ETF interest measure overall crypto adoption?
No. Comments from Bitwise's CEO reinforced this view. ETF inflows measure demand in the brokerage channel, a segment of the broader market. Application ownership, on-chain activity and exchange transaction volume capture different and often larger segments of actual adoption rates, especially for retail-oriented assets like Dogecoin.
