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BTC 关键事实
周三上午，受美国核心通胀数据超预期及交易员上调美联储10月加息概率至47%（此前约为22%）的影响，比特币价格下跌约2%。与此同时，周二比特币现货需求转为正值，这是近六周以来的首次；当日美国现货比特币ETF净流入资金达1.757亿美元。Bitfinex指出，若伴随新的ETF资金流出且价格跌破81,300美元，将改变其看涨观点；而周四公布的生产者价格指数报告将成为下一个关键测试点。
为何比特币下跌？核心通胀超预期
根据美国劳工统计局的数据，截至9月的过去一年内，消费者物价指数（CPI）上涨了3.7%，其中汽油价格是推动月度增长的主要因素。剔除食品和能源的核心物价涨幅高于经济学家的预期。据CME FedWatch数据显示，截至美东时间上午10:25，期货交易者预计美联储在10月28日会议上加息的概率已从周二的约22%上升至约47%。
Bitfinex分析师在报告发布前曾撰文指出， hotter（更高）的读数将增加10月加息的可能性，并推高国债收益率。他们写道：“经通胀调整的国债收益率是比特币竞争的低风险回报。” CoinDesk报道显示，报告公布后几分钟内，国债收益率便迅速上升。
谁在购买？现货需求周二转正
Signs of improvement appeared earlier than the release of the report. CW8900, a contributor to CryptoQuant, wrote that after several weeks of negative trends, the Bitcoin spot demand indicator, which measures the demand for spot Bitcoin, turned positive on Tuesday. “Bitcoin shows a short-term downward trend, but demand is starting to turn bullish,” he added after the inflation report was released.
Farside Investors data shows that U.S. spot Bitcoin funds also recorded a net inflow of $175.7 million on Tuesday, whereas these funds experienced a net outflow the previous week. Additionally, forced liquidations remained within manageable levels. CoinGlass data shows that the volume of trades settled in the past 24 hours was only about one-third of the previous day’s volume, with most of the losses coming from long positions.
What kind of trend can confirm a bottom? A break above $84,500
Ryan Connor, a research partner at RockawayX, said in late September that cryptocurrencies are showing signs of “negative factors causing no decline, while positive factors lead to increases.” He described this pattern as a typical characteristic of assets reaching a bottom. At the same time, the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stock markets is tightening. K33 Research found that the correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market this week has reached its highest level since June.
Bitfinex noted that if prices can maintain themselves above $84,500, along with positive capital flows, then the annual opening price of $87,722 could become a possible target again. However, if prices continue to trade below $81,300 and new outflows occur, their opinion will change. In that case, a price range of around $77,400 might become an important consideration.
If Bitcoin can hold above this support level during the release of the producer price index report on Thursday, then the Fed’s meeting on October 28th will become the next critical testing point. Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, wrote on the X platform (formerly Twitter): “The September CPI data did not provide sufficient evidence of inflation reduction. This suggests that the Fed may need to raise interest rates multiple times.”
