如果XRP跌破1美元，Stellar（XLM）的价格将会如何？

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Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM) enter a critical period

Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM), two cryptocurrencies focusing on payments, are facing different catalysts and entering a critical stage. Currently, XRP prices are down 0.72% to close at $1.39, while regulatory uncertainty has added to downward pressure ahead of the U.S. Senate vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarification Act. In contrast, XLM prices rose 0.98% to close at US$0.192. Traders expect a major upgrade to the network, which now gives it a certain comparative advantage.

However, if XRP prices fall below the psychological threshold of $1, this resilience may disappear. Because in major market cycles, these two assets have historically tended to fluctuate in the same direction. Given that XRP and XLM share common origins, similar payment application scenarios, and overlapping investor groups, the key question is: If XRP falls below $1, how much will the price of XLM fall?

What is the correlation between XRP and XLM price movements?

In major market cycles, the historical relationship between XRP and XLM is clear. Both performed relatively flat for most of the period from April to November 2024, before breaking through gains in November and December. XRP later reached major peaks in December 2024/January 2025 and July 2025, while XLM followed a similar pattern.

在 2025 年 7 月的峰值之后，两者都进入了漫长的下跌期，这表明专注于支付的替代币对相同的市场条件反应非常敏感。它们的短期走势也具有相似性，整合期、反弹和下跌往往出现在同一时期。不过，这种关系并非完全等同。XRP 的上行势头更强，从约 0.60 美元涨至近 3.80 美元，而 XLM 从其 2024 年的低点上涨了约六倍。

这种联系还源于它们的基本面。Jed McCaleb 参与了这两个项目的早期开发，两个网络都旨在提供快速、低成本的跨境交易和数字资产发行。这种共同叙事意味着交易者可以将 XRP 和 XLM 视为同一“支付币”篮子的一部分，因此大量的 XRP 抛售可能成为 Stellar 价格的潜在风险。

什么可能导致 XRP 价格跌破 1 美元？

第一个风险是 XRP 本身的需求减弱。RLUSD 的流通量已达到约 24 亿美元，其中超过 10 亿美元在 XRP 账本上，这为机构提供了一种以美元计价且能避免 XRP 波动性的结算选择。

此外，《CLARITY 法案》通过的隐含概率已从 30% 降至 18%，增加了围绕 XRP 的监管不确定性。

Institutional needs are another concern. Investment products related to XRP only recorded a net inflow of approximately US$27 million, a month-on-month decrease of 54%. This comes amid weak demand from broader cryptocurrency funds, with Bitcoin ETF outflows of approximately $462.7 million a week. If institutional buying continues to weaken, XRP prices may be more likely to lose $1 support.

The macro environment may exacerbate this decline. A hawkish Federal Reserve, high interest rates and Bitcoin's fall below the main support level could all trigger a broader altcoin sell-off. XRP also has ecosystem security issues related to the need for quantum-resistant cryptography, although this is a long-term risk rather than a direct catalyst for an immediate fall below $1.

If XRP falls below US$1, where might the price of XLM go?

Based on the current XRP price of US$1.39 and XLM price of US$0.192, there are three main scenarios:

Moderate XRP crash: XRP fell to US$0.95, a decrease of 31.7%. If XLM recorded a similar percentage loss, the XLM price would fall to approximately $0.131. If XLM maintains some of its current comparative advantage, the decline could be around $0.14-$0.16.

Benchmark sell-off: Ripple's XRP price fell to US$0.85, a drop of 38.8%. The same decline for XLM applications was approximately $0.118. A weaker XLM response could keep prices around $0.13 -0.15, but a stronger correlation could push it towards $0.10 -0.12.

Severe cryptocurrency market sell-off:XRP 可能跌至 0.75 美元，从 1.39 美元下跌 46%。同步下跌将使 XLM 价格接近 0.104 美元，高贝塔值运动可能使 XLM 走向 0.08-0.09 美元。