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BTC Polymarket CEO Sean Coplan: Chasing hundredfold tokens is playing a game of "irrational prosperity" and "hot potato"
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan said that those traders who are keen to find the next hundredfold token are actually participating in a game full of "irrational prosperity" and "hot potato" nature. He made the remarks at the TOKEN2049 event held in Singapore on Wednesday, October 7. His warning was mainly aimed at retail speculators, which Polymarket is trying to attract by offering more stable odds.
Why Copeland compares leveraged trading to a "hot potato"
Copeland describes the pursuit of early explosive token gains as a gamble: trying to sell worthless assets before they collapse. He pointed out: "People think they are buying something of value, but in reality it may be worthless. If the price goes up 100 times, they just want to sell before it goes back to zero."
Although he admitted that a few traders did get rich this way, he characterized the strategy as a pattern that inevitably led to prices rising and then falling back. Copeland cited a classic economic concept, using the term "irrational prosperity" echoing Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert J. Shiller's book of the same name published in 2000, which studied how market optimism is influenced by psychological and social dynamics. Copeland's view is that the temptation to make quick profits in cryptocurrencies is in sharp contrast to the reality that selecting a winning altcoin is extremely rare.
As early as December last year, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes made a similar view, arguing that the so-called "altcoin season" never really ended, but that most traders missed out on the biggest increase in the cycle.
Predicting the market's advantages over the "dream of getting rich"
Copeland's comments also indirectly promoted its platform. He said the appeal of the forecast market is that it does not have the nature of a lottery. "When trading these markets on Polymarket, there is no exponential upside," he said. Copeland added that the reason why informed traders continue to bet is that odds on future events are more predictable than the chart movements of memecoin.
Polymarket is currently the second largest forecasting market platform, after Kalshi. According to DefiLlama data, Polymarket's decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volume exceeded $1.22 billion in the past seven days, compared with $2.3 billion in Kalshi's trading volume during the same period.
10x Research 去年12月的一份报告指出，预测市场正成为加密货币领域的新战场。研究显示，这些市场使数据驱动的“精英”交易者能够利用休闲赌徒追求快速收益所留下的信息不对称获利。
操纵风险与监管阴霾
斯坦福大学和新加坡管理大学的研究人员发现，Polymarket 的五分钟比特币合约在结算前产生了操纵现货价格的激励措施。
进一步监管该领域的压力也在不断积聚。虽然在联邦层面，美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）拥有监管权，但预测市场平台在各州层面已陷入法律困境。今年9月，纽约州总检察长莱蒂蒂亚·詹姆斯（Letitia James）起诉了 Polymarket US，指控其运营无牌照的赌博业务，并要求州法院予以关闭。
这起诉讼加入了 CFTC 针对纽约州及亚利桑那州、康涅狄格州和伊利诺伊州等少数州发起的联邦与州管辖权之争。今年7月，包括纽约在内的44个州的总检察长致信 CFTC，挑战其对体育赛事相关合约的监管权威。目前，部分州已针对 Polymarket、Kalshi 或两者就体育合约采取了行动。
