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POL Galaxy Research Analysis: Polymarket retail traders suffered heavy losses
Recently, an analysis report released by Galaxy Research showed that retail traders suffered significant losses on the Polymarket international platform. The agency found that 69.2% of approximately 2.9 million "retail" accounts ended up losing money (ie, not breaking even). The report pointed out that cumulative losses in these accounts totaled $338.9 million.
The original report read: "Among retail accounts, 69.2% of accounts ended up in losses. Overall, the group had a net loss of $338.9 million. The median retail account lost about $3, and half of the accounts had a profit and loss range between-36.64 and +0.40. These amounts are not enough to change anyone's life. As expected, funds are concentrated in tail data. The 1st percentile is-4,804 and the 99th percentile is +3,381."
This study relied on on-chain settlement data compiled and provided by Stork. The study found that after different trading results, there were significant differences in trading behavior. It is worth noting that an estimated 15.2% of accounts did not trade again within 30 days of experiencing a loss. In contrast, only 6.1% of accounts stopped trading within the same 30-day window after winning. This gap suggests that losses are more likely to drive accounts out of the platform than profits.
Research also found that profitability tends to keep users on the platform. After winning, only 6.1% of accounts did not open new positions within 30 days; while after losing, 15.2% of accounts did not open new positions. Data shows that loss-making accounts are 2.5 times more likely to withdraw than profit-making accounts.
In addition, the study also found a high concentration of participation patterns. About 44.1% of traders concentrate more than 60% of their trading activity on a single topic. Cross-thematic specialization brings mixed profitability results.
Experts in the sports field account for 47% of all professional traders, but this group has the lowest profit margin at only 25.1%. In contrast, experts in technology and science achieved the highest profit margin, reaching 41.2%. However, the sample size in science and technology and science is small, which the analysis points to as a factor limiting drawing broader conclusions from this category.
There are also significant differences in the size of positions between profitable and loss-making traders. The median position size for profitable traders is $13.96, while the median position size for losing traders is lower, at $10.
At the same time, there is no clear relationship between holding time and profitability. The data did not show a consistent correlation between the length of time a trader held and whether a trader ultimately made a profit.
Overall, Galaxy's research results show that most of the approximately 2.9 million real-life retail accounts on the platform end up at a loss, with a cumulative loss of US$338.9 million, and exit after a loss, theme concentration, specialization results and position size show obvious pattern characteristics.
