Bitcoin plunges, OpenAI disappoints: the market has double warnings

比特币反弹至82,000美元，AI板块营收预期下调引发市场震荡

比特币价格一度触及80,900美元的低点，随后迅速反弹至82,000美元附近。与此同时，人工智能（AI）领域也传来意外消息：OpenAI向投资者披露，其9月份的年化收入约为500亿美元，较此前提及的700亿美元减少了约200亿美元。尽管这两起事件源于不同的背景，但它们同时发生在一个对投资者要求日益苛刻的市场环境中——高油价、高利率以及巨额支出正在让资本变得更加谨慎。

核心要点摘要

• 比特币在触及约80,900美元的低位后，反弹至82,000美元附近。
• 根据新的计算方法，OpenAI显示的年化收入约为500亿美元。
• 石油价格、债券收益率以及AI相关的高昂开支共同压制了风险资产的表现。

比特币在跌至81,000美元附近后强劲反弹

此次市场波动速度极快。周四，比特币在某些交易平台上的价格跌至约80,940美元，创下自9月21日以来的最低水平。在此之前，BTC曾短暂突破83,000美元大关，而当时石油价格正处于上升通道。

The support level of $82,500 could not be held. Subsequently, the geopolitical situation showed signs of easing. Donald Trump said the United States would not launch a strike on Iran before the November election, citing discussions that were seen as fruitful. The oil market responded immediately. On Friday, Brent crude fell about 1.3% to $102.91 a barrel;WTI crude fell about 1.2% to around $90.40 a barrel.

Boosted by this, Bitcoin rebounded to around $82,000. Although the rebound is more moderate compared to previous declines, it fully demonstrates the high sensitivity of the current cryptocurrency market to oil, the situation in Iran and U.S. interest rate news.

This connection is indirect. Higher oil prices could push up inflation expectations. Persisting inflation reduces the likelihood of the Federal Reserve easing monetary policy quickly. As bond yields remain high, non-interest-producing assets like Bitcoin are relatively less attractive to some investors.

The U.S. Treasury market did experience sharp swings this week. The yield on the 30-year U.S. bond reached 5.73%, the highest level in about 24 years; the yield on the 10-year U.S. bond also exceeded 5.3%. As a result, Bitcoin finds itself caught between multiple forces: the crypto market is eager to rebound, but the macroeconomic environment complicates the task.

Bitcoin ETF outflows intensify market pressure

Bitcoin's fall to near $81,000 is not caused by oil alone. This week, U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also sent negative signals. On Wednesday, there was a net outflow of $484.9 million in cash Bitcoin ETF funds, the largest one-day withdrawal since June.

Among them, BlackRock contributed $207.7 million in outflows, Fidelity lost $105.1 million, and ARK21 Shares recorded an additional outflow of $101.7 million. These funds total more than US$414 million. The move quickly erased a good start at the beginning of the month. The first four trading days of October brought approximately $321.6 million in capital inflows to the Bitcoin ETF. In just one day, the overall balance was pulled back into the negative range.

This does not mean that institutional investors are abandoning Bitcoin. U.S. funds still recorded net inflows of approximately $2.65 billion in September. However, the volatility of capital liquidity is becoming increasingly apparent. In addition, the market has suffered hundreds of millions of dollars in liquidations of leveraged positions. When Bitcoin falls below important technical thresholds, traders who use borrowed funds to trade may be automatically cleared. Their positions were forced to sell, increasing selling pressure in the short term.

The same mechanism emerged when Bitcoin fell below $84,000. The current rebound to $82,000 has temporarily eased the situation, but Bitcoin is clearly still below its high of $86,000 a few days ago. Therefore, the current recovery is only partial.

OpenAI's annualized revenue is expected to drop from 70 billion to US$50 billion

在比特币回调的同时，另一个故事令华尔街担忧。OpenAI告知投资者，其9月份的年化收入接近500亿美元。然而，几天前该数字曾被表述为约700亿美元。差异约为200亿美元。不过，说OpenAI“损失”了200亿美元的收入是不准确的。问题主要出在收入的计算方式上。

500亿美元的数字 notably 排除了通过亚马逊AWS和谷歌云等云合作伙伴进行的某些销售。据报道，OpenAI采用这种方法是为了使其数据更具可比性，以与其竞争对手Anthropic进行对标。然而，这种比较仍然不完善。Anthropic在其部分收入展示中包含了更多通过云合作伙伴进行的销售，其约一半的业务通过这些伙伴进行。

“年化收入”本身也需要解释。它并不对应过去十二个月实际收取的收入。公司通常取一个月的收入乘以12来计算。如果某公司在9月产生40亿美元收入，它可以展示接近480亿美元的年化增速。对于像OpenAI这样增长如此迅猛的公司，结果可能每月都有显著变化。OpenAI从2024年的约60亿美元收入，增长到2026年初近200亿美元的年化水平。即使调整为500亿美元，这依然是一个庞大的数字。但市场不再仅仅关注增长，更关注增长的成本。

比特币与AI共同面对昂贵资金的代价

These two stories meet here. Not because Bitcoin is directly dependent on OpenAI's revenue, but because Bitcoin, Nvidia, OpenAI and other major technology investments now operate in the same financial environment.

The cost of capital is rising. U.S. bonds offer yields not seen in decades. Oil prices are still above $100. The financing needs of AI now amount to hundreds of billions of dollars. As of the end of September, the company was still seeking at least $30 billion in investment, with a target valuation of approximately $1.4 trillion. At this level, the formal gap of US$20 billion in annualized income will naturally attract attention.

Investors want to understand the value of the fees they pay. On Thursday, the market reaction was quite violent. Nvidia, Oracle, AMD, Broadcom, CoreWeave and several other stocks affected by AI fell. Indeed, concerns about technology spending are intertwined with concerns about bond yields and oil prices.

Friday brought some calm. Oil prices fell, technology futures rose slightly, and Bitcoin rebounded to around $82,000. However, the doubts of the previous day have not been completely eliminated. OpenAI continues to grow rapidly, but its capital needs remain huge. Bitcoin has retained significant institutional demand, but its ETF can now lose nearly $500 million in a single trading session. The two markets tell different stories, but they remind investors of a fact that was almost forgotten during the craze phase: When interest rates rise and billions of dollars are hard to come by, growth alone is no longer enough. Data must also be reasonably interpreted. This week, both OpenAI and Bitcoin had to do just that.