链links首次迎来五交易日资金流入：对德国投资者的影响几何

The actual path of capital inflows from U.S. spot funds and German investors

On October 9, two U.S. Link spot funds had a total inflow of US$9.48 million. This is the first positive inflow after the previous five consecutive trading days had zero net inflows. All funds flowed into single provider Grayscale's GLNK fund; while in Bitwise's CLNK fund, the flow was zero. The data comes from fund data service SoSoValue, which is the main source for tracking transaction coverage for such products.

For readers in Germany, this report has a key point that most press releases ignore: you cannot directly buy the funds. These products are established under U.S. law rather than European UCITS (Transferable Securities Collective Investment Plan) Directive, and lack key information documents required by PRIIP (Packaged Retail Investment Products) regulations. Therefore, German brokerages are not allowed to market these products to retail customers. All you can touch is the price, and this demand really drives the price up. However, the other options you can choose will have a far more profound impact than a single-day inflow of funds.

As of Saturday night, LINK was quoted at US$13.07, up 2.11% from 24 hours ago, with intraday fluctuations ranging from US$12.71 to US$13.23 (Source: CoinGecko, as of the evening of October 10). The market value is approximately US$10 billion.

What happened to the two LINK funds on October 9

Since the launch of the two products, two exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that hold physical Chainlink tokens have appeared on the U.S. market: GLNK issued by Grayscale and CLNK issued by Bitwise. This cash fund is constructed to actually buy and hold a corresponding number of tokens, unlike future funds that only make bets on price.

On October 8, net inflows from the two funds totaled US$0.00, the fifth consecutive trading day without change. Subsequently, on October 9, there was an inflow of $9.48 million, all concentrated in the GLNK fund. This caused the two's combined net assets to climb from $211.7 million to $225.35 million.

Based on Chainlink's market value, these US$225.35 million assets account for approximately 2.25% of its total market value. The inflow of US$9.48 million this time is only equivalent to 0.095% of the market value. This order of magnitude is worth remembering because of the need to remain rational when headlines portray the day as a turning point.

Despite inflows, fund assets shrank after October 1.

There is a hidden fact that pure inflow reports often conceal. On October 1, the two funds had a combined inflow of $2.62 million; at that time, all the funds went to Bitwise, and Grayscale received no inflow. The consolidated net assets on the day were US$244.34 million, of which CLNK was US$68.64 million and GLNK was US$175.69 million.

Eight days later, net assets fell to US$225.35 million despite further inflows and no reported outflows. This represented a decrease of $18.99 million, or 7.8%.

The explanation is not demand, but valuation. Spot funds hold tokens, and their reported asset value is equal to the number of tokens multiplied by the current day's price. Chainlink was quoted at $14.14 after profit-taking at the end of September (we recorded it in our September 30 Swift market review). It is now quoted at $13.07, down 7.6%.

This 7.6% price decline almost exactly matched the 7.8% asset decline. During this period, fund assets mainly followed price movements rather than demand changes. Anyone who views spot fund asset numbers as a demand signal is actually measuring demand by the prices they are trying to explain.

Mechanism Analysis: How the inflow of cash into the spot ETF affects the LINK price

The inflow of funds itself does not directly place orders to the market. The process is divided into two stages, with only the second stage touching the market.

First, so-called authorized participants (i.e. recognized market makers or trading members) issue new fund units upon application by investors. In order to cover these shares, the fund must hold the corresponding number of tokens. In the second phase, participants purchase these tokens in the market, often simultaneously on multiple trading platforms and over-the-counter trading desks, and deliver them to the fund's custodian.

Price pressure only occurs in the second stage, and its intensity depends on the depth of the order book for the day. For tokens with an average daily trading volume of tens of millions of dollars, US$9.48 million is a considerable amount, but it is not enough to unilaterally change the market trend. There is also time lag: settlements usually occur the next day, so inflows reported on October 9 may not be fully reflected in the order book until October 10.

The threshold for U.S. spot funds is open to institutional investors, but closed to German retail investors because these products are not authorized under European law.

US Spot ETF, ETN or Real Token: Three Paths in the German Market

There are three paths that allow you to obtain Chainlink positions in Germany, and their legal attributes are much more different than their price behavior.

1. U.S. Spot ETF

This is largely unfeasible for retail investors. German securities firms are not allowed to sell these shares to you due to the lack of authorization from the UCITS Directive and the lack of the German version of the PRIIP key information document. While there are individual ways to invest through foreign securities accounts, this creates additional reporting obligations and raises questions about U.S. inheritance taxes on inheritance issues.

2. Exchange Traded Notes (ETN)

This is a relatively convenient path. You can purchase through the exchange in a general securities account, and the issuer deposits the tokens as collateral. Legally, you hold claims on the issuer, not the token itself. If the issuer goes bankrupt, your equity depends on the quality of the collateral. Therefore, it is important to review the quality of collateral and the issuer's credit status before purchasing. For an overview of Germany's tradable paper-based crypto assets, see our "Crypto ETF and ETN Survey".

3. Buy directly and own custody

You can obtain real tokens by purchasing directly on the exchange and hosting them yourself. In exchange, you take responsibility for key management and can pledge it. In Germany, trading venues authorized under MiCA (Cryptographic Asset Markets Regulation) determine the fee structure and whether token withdrawals are allowed.

Comparison of spot tokens versus ETN: tax difference of € 396 under income of € 1500

The choice of path determines the tax treatment and the difference is not an error after the decimal point.

If you hold your own tokens: Article 23 of the German Income Tax Act applies. The sale is a private disposal transaction. If the interval between purchase and sale exceeds twelve months, the full income is tax-free and has no upper limit. If it is less than one year, an exemption of € 1000 per year (combined for all private disposal transactions) applies; once this threshold is exceeded, all income is taxed at the personal income tax rate.

If you hold ETN: The above provisions do not apply. It is considered a capital claim (Article 20) and is subject to a 25% uniform withholding tax, plus a 5.5% solidarity surcharge, for a total of 26.375%. Church taxes may also be involved. You can deduct the 1000 euro saver tax exemption provided that the amount is not exhausted by interest and dividends.

Case demonstration (rounding calculation):

Invest 5000 euros and sell it 14 months later at a return of 30%(i.e. a profit of 1500 euros).

• As self-held tokens: 0 euros tax because the one-year period has exceeded.
• As ETN (and tax exemption exhausted): € 395.62 tax.
• As ETN (with tax exemptions remaining): The remaining 500 euros of income are subject to tax, and the tax amount is 131.88 euros.

The span between 0 and 395.62 euros is the cost of "convenience". Whether it's worth paying depends on your investment vision: any trader who plans to hold it for less than a year will lose nothing through ETN and saves the trouble of key management. And any long-term planner, on a year-by-year basis, has waived the most powerful rule of German tax law for cryptocurrency investors.

本周议会投票结果进一步支持了这一规则的稳定性：10月9日，联邦议院以445票赞成、132票反对否决了取消持有期限制的提案。这虽不能保证永久安全，但对于当前年度的规划而言是可靠的。如需清晰记录持有期和购买价格，可使用我们“税务工具和组合跟踪器比较”中的工具；注意，向税务局举证的责任始终在您身上。

LINK质押：4.32%的基础利率、28天冷却期及地址上限

第三条路径拥有ETF和ETN都不具备的属性：您可以让代币发挥作用。自v0.2版本以来，Chainlink运行着两个独立的质押池。社区池面向所有持有者，上限为40,875,000 LINK；节点运营商池上限为4,125,000 LINK。

社区池记录的年化基础利率为4.5%。其中，4%的收益作为委托费分配给节点运营商，若池子满额填充，有效收益率则为4.32%。若池子未满，收益率会上升。数据服务Staking Rewards最近显示，两个池子的加权平均收益率约为4.76%。奖励由Chainlink储备金提供，并非来自新发行的代币。更多关于机制的细节请参阅“v0.2质押概览”和项目官方页面。

在阅读将其视为定期存款替代品之前，需注意三个限制条件：

1. 每个地址可质押的数量在1到15,000 LINK之间。
2. 部分奖励会被锁定，并在90天的斜坡期内逐步解锁。
3. Withdrawal time: A 28-day cooling-off period, during which your positions will be locked and cannot be realized with price fluctuations.

Two timelines dominate the spot path: one is a 12-month waiting period for tax exemptions and the other is a 28-day cooling-off period for pledge unlocking.

For tax purposes, incentives are considered other income (Article 22 (3). An exemption of € 256 per year applies here; once exceeded, the entire amount is taxed at the personal rate. With a pledge of 5000 euros and a yield of 4.32%, the annual income is approximately 216 euros, slightly below the exemption threshold. What is important for long-term investors is that a pledge does not extend the holding period of the token. The Federal Ministry of Finance has waived the ten-year holding period that had been discussed and reconfirmed it in a circular on income tax treatment of crypto assets on March 6, 2025.

Current status since CCIP was released on October 8

On October 8, Chainlink launched CCIP Vault Adapters, allowing DeFi vaults to accept deposits from more than 80 networks without decentralizing management rights. We evaluated this on the way down LINK that day.

两天后，情况有所变化：价格停止了跌势，在13.07美元的报价下，重新高于日内低点12.71美元。此前引发关注的九月低点水平依然稳固。与此同时，本文提到的资金流入数据出现：五个交易日来首次有资金流入基金。技术革新与基金资金是两个独立的线索。协议更新改变了网络用途，而基金流入改变了代币持有者。两者可同时发生，互不制约。

回顾历史高点：LINK距离52.70美元的历史最高点仍有75.2%的距离。这将948万美元的流入量和2.25%的基金占比置于更长的时间背景中审视。

我们的评估：市值0.095%的流入不构成反转

从新闻室的角度来看，10月9日是方向的改变，而非趋势的断裂，证据两方面皆有。

有利因素是零流入的连庄被打破，且价格在同时高于日内低点。不利因素在于规模：948万美元仅占约100亿美元市值的0.095%。此外，仅有两只基金中的一只获得了资金。资金 exclusively 流入单一提供商，更多地表明大型机构的重新配置，而非买盘的广泛性。

The most robust finding of this article is a calculation, not an opinion: fund assets fell 7.8% after October 1, while prices fell 7.6%. As long as the two numbers are so close, the asset numbers of these funds cannot explain demand. Those who really want to observe the turning point in demand should focus on the simultaneous multi-day inflows from two providers, rather than the sum of funds. No buying and selling advice can be drawn from this; in the crypto asset market, the possibility of a total loss of principal always exists.

Holding via ETN or Tokens LINK: Path divergence of more than a year

Today's news is about a market in which you are not involved. Decisions about you are made in your own securities account and consist of three steps:

1. Determine your investment vision before choosing a product.

Held for less than a year, ETN is tax equivalent and more convenient. Over a year, as shown in the above example, ETN costs as high as 395.62 euros, and self-managed tokens can save this cost. The costs and risks of the three paths are stated in parallel in our "Comparison of Certificates, ETNs and Tokens".

2. If you choose ETN, check the entity behind it.

Collateral, custodian and issuer determine your remaining interests in bankruptcy. If you choose to purchase directly, please check the exchange venue's MiCA authorization and fee structure, relevant information can be found in Exchange Comparison.

3. Weigh the pledge income with the cooling-off period.

4.32%的基础利率对应的是28天无法出售的限制，以及256欧元以上收益需纳税的豁免阈值。条款和提供商详情见“质押比较”。
（截至2026年10月10日。本文不构成投资建议。价格和费用结构会发生变化；购买前请与提供商核实条款。）