Glassnode warns: Bitcoin rebound is still a local phenomenon

Glassnode's chain signal still points to surrender.

Glassnode said that Bitcoin's rebound still looks like a local trend rather than a real trend reversal. BTC is currently trading at close to $69,030, while the company's on-chain model still puts the market in a capitulation stage below the critical cost base threshold.

In its report, Glassnode noted that both spot prices and short-term holder cost bases (approximately US$68,500) are below the real market average (approximately US$75,800). The company believes that this configuration structure confirms that the market is in a sustained capitulation phase.

Surrender threshold: $68,500 vs $75,800

The short-term holder cost base is still below the real market average, which is consistent with Glassnode's determination that it is a "local rebound rather than a reversal." These two levels are important because they reflect the entry position of recent buyers and the broader active market. The short-term holder cost basis tracks the average price paid by recent buyers, while the real market average approximates the cost basis of active supply. When prices fall below these two levels, it means that most active market participants are in unrealized losses.

Glassnode therefore characterized the current rally as a series of local rallies rather than trend reversals. The report pointed out that the realized P/E ratio is currently 0.75, and any rebound should be regarded as a partial rebound until the indicator returns to 2-a threshold of 2 that means that realized profits exceed realized losses.

Why stronger price movements have not translated into real confidence

Glassnode said demand for perpetual contracts has improved, but a negative Coinbase premium suggests U.S. spot demand has not really re-entered. This divergence is worth noting: Leverage-driven buying can quickly push up prices, but it is often easier to disintegrate quickly than spot accumulation.

The company's report pointed out that momentum has returned to the neutral range, and active spot buying has accelerated, but sluggish exchange trading volume and weak on-chain activity have made the recovery still fragile. The thinness of trading participation has left the rally lacking foundation even when the candlestick pattern appears to be positive, a development echoing previous warnings that leveraged bulls could suffer a blow.

Institutional capital inflows have also failed to close this gap. Although the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of $865.3 million last week, Glassnode described the recovery as "tentative." Strong ETF demand alone does not prove a trend reversal, as it can coexist with weak spot follow-up and loss-dominated chains. In Glassnode's framework, the test of confidence lies in whether domestic spot buyers return, rather than whether headline price momentum improves.

What levels does Bitcoin need to recover for a rebound to have structural significance?

Bitcoin's latest trading price, at $69,030, rose 7.37% in 24 hours, leaving the spot price just above the $68,500 short-term holder cost base pointed out by Glassnode-a level considered a key threshold in the near term. The narrow gap between spot prices and the cost base for short-term holders helps explain why the rebound may still be tactical rather than structural.

The difference between a tradable rebound and a trend reversal depends on the level of confirmation. A partial rally can operate in a downtrend; and a structural institutional shift, according to Glassnode, requires the achieved P & P ratio to return to above 2 and prices regain the real market average of approximately $75,800.

The supply distribution highlights that there is still a lot of resistance above. In Glassnode's URPD data, approximately 515,000 BTC (accounting for more than 3% of the circulating supply) are concentrated around the US$63,000 level, a dense cost cluster that can both serve as support and a source of trapped supply.

Market sentiment is ahead of the data on the chain. The Fear and Greed Index reads 62, in the greedy range, while Glassnode's data shows weak confidence-a divergence that is noteworthy, especially after Bitcoin recently exceeded $70,000 for the first time since June. For traders and long-term holders, the next key signal to pay attention to is to recover the real market average and return the achieved P & P ratio to above 2.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. There are significant risks in the cryptocurrency and digital asset markets. Please study for yourself before making any decisions.