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FollowingPolymarket raises new regulatory concerns in the UK
Predicted market platform records show that nearly US$77,500 was bet failed on large banks including HSBC and Lloyds. Faced with manipulation risks and the potential threat of bank panic, a British MP has called on regulators to intervene. At the same time, Polymarket argues that such markets have practical utility.
Summary of core points
- At the end of the year, approximately US$77,500 was bet on the possible bankruptcy of major banks including HSBC, Lloyd's, JPMorgan Chase and BNP Paribas.
- MP Bobby Dean asked British regulators to communicate with their U.S. counterparts and pointed to the risk of bank runs.
- The UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) said it is in contact with international regulators; HSBC and Lloyds have not yet commented.
MPs call for intervention
Although the market is predicted to be emerging, its development raises new regulatory issues. Betting on bank failure has now attracted the attention of British authorities after Europe took a tougher stance on Polymarket and Kalshi.
On the Polymarket platform, users have invested nearly $77,500 in betting that several major international banks-including JPMorgan Chase, BNP Paribas, HSBC and Lloyd's-may go bankrupt before the end of the year. This situation worries Bobby Dean, a Liberal Democrat MP and a member of the British Treasury Committee. He believes that surveillance loopholes in the platform may encourage market manipulation and aggravate market panic.
Therefore, the MP asked British regulators to establish a liaison mechanism with their American counterparts. In response, the UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) said it is currently communicating with international authorities to maintain market integrity. The Bank of England is also monitoring emerging risks. As of now, HSBC and Lloyd have not responded.
Polymarket defends its market
Polymarket rejects this panicked interpretation. Neal Kumar, its legal director, argued: "Information in these markets is already public." He believes that banks and funds have long been able to obtain relevant information through the credit default swaps (CDS) market, and expanding this access can even help combat false information.
然而，批评声不断，其中包括来自美国的指责。据彭博社报道，美国联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）今年秋季审查了相关合约及其员工的道德准则。其前主席希拉·贝尔（Sheila Bair）认为，这些合约没有社会价值，反而鼓励参与者制造谣言和恐慌。参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦称其为充满操纵行为的“狂野西部”。受监管的竞争对手Kalshi不提供此类合约，并认为这“品味不佳”。
超越英国的全球性问题
欧洲方面也在同步推进监管进程。欧洲证券和市场管理局（ESMA）今年9月警告称，预测市场充斥着内幕交易，例如在二月与伊朗冲突前夕建立的组合，或一名因押注尼古拉斯·马杜罗被捕而被起诉的美国士兵案例。
该平台已在法国被封锁，尽管2027年法国总统大选通过变通方式吸引了大量投注。面对批评，该平台引入了自愿存款限额和屏蔽措施。
然而，关于其合法性的争论也体现在措辞上。支持者将其视为对抗谣言的反权力机构，反对者则认为这是一种道德风险。这场辩论每周都在预测市场新闻中得到体现。
与传统金融市场相比，目前的金额仍然微不足道。真正令人担忧的是其发展趋势，而非当前规模。法律纠纷正在累积，例如Kalshi近期在体育合约上诉中败诉。下一个重大决定可能来自华盛顿，商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）主张对其拥有管辖权，而立法者则要求制定更严格的规则。
