Shiba Inu forecast: Zama's second quarter 2026 target window has passed, Shibarium holds US$159,561

Shibarium promises unfulfilled: SHIB prices are sluggish, core upgrades are postponed to the second quarter of 2026

Most price forecasts for Shibarium are based on a single promise: to gain the ability to support confidential smart contracts, thereby bringing practical use scenarios to it. The target window for the upgrade was originally scheduled for the second quarter of 2026, but the period ended on June 30. As of now, the official has not announced the specific date for the upgrade of the main network.

On Thursday night, the SHIB was trading at US$0.0000528 (approximately 0.0000471 euros). The price is down 2.6% from 24 hours ago and is the lowest reading in the past seven days. However, what deserves more attention than numbers is the current performance of the blockchain network itself, because all predictions beyond the present rely entirely on this basic fact.

Zama's target window: Expires in the second quarter of 2026

In December 2025, encryption company Zama released a roadmap promising to provide Shibarium with complete on-chain privacy protection and confidential smart contract capabilities by the second quarter of 2026. In this assessment, ownership is crucial: the target window comes from technical partners rather than binding commitments from the Shiba Inu team; and it points to a quarter rather than a specific date.

目前，该季度已超过三个月。既无公开确认表明该技术已上线 Shibarium 主网，也无新的日期公布。对于此类预测而言，这并非无关紧要的细节，而是核心问题：没有明确日期的催化剂无法被定价，因为没有人能确定它将在哪个月份发挥作用。

全同态加密简述

全同态加密（FHE）是一种允许计算机在不解密数据的情况下进行计算的方法。在公共区块链上，这意味着区别在于：是从任何人都可读取的银行对账单，转变为一种金额隐藏但网络仍能验证的交易。对于 Shibarium 而言，这将是使其区别于数十个其他 Layer-2 网络的首个特性。

Shibarium 数据透视：日均1,323笔交易与15.9万美元锁定资金

根据区块链浏览器数据显示，10月7日的交易量为 1,323 笔。此前七天的波动较大：10月1日为 1,011 笔，10月2日为 2,288 笔，10月3日为 1,806 笔，随后在 10月4日至6日分别为 4,084、4,859 和 5,711 笔。平均每日交易量约为 3,012 笔。平均出块时间约为五秒，总区块数已达 1,097 万。

第二个数据更具分量。根据 DeFiLlama 的数据，Shibarium 应用中的总锁定价值（TVL）仅为 159,561 美元。并非数百万，而是约 16 万美元。相比之下，SHIB 代币本身的市值为 31.1 亿美元。代币价值与其自身链上运作资本的比例约为 19,500:1。

您可以自行查阅这些数据：ShibariumScan 用于查看交易量，DeFiLlama 用于查看存入资本。获取时间和来源是任何超过一天历史数据的重要组成部分。

为何浏览器仅索引部分区块？

对此需加以说明，否则数据会显得比实际情况更大。正如我们在 10月6日的报道中所指出的，Shibarium 的浏览器在 10 月初仅索引了其约 55% 的区块。因此，上述每日读数仅为下限，而非完整统计。但这并不改变数量级：即使翻倍，每日交易量仍仅为几千笔。

在将路线图承诺纳入价格模型之前，有必要检查目标窗口是否仍然有效。

自目标窗口以来的价格走势：0.00000528美元及90天区间

在过去 90 天内，SHIB 价格在 0.00000411 美元至 0.00000610 美元之间波动。90 日均价为 0.00000503 美元，当前价格略高于此水平约 5%。但若以 30 天为周期衡量，情况则相反：均值为 0.00000556 美元，当前价格低于均值约 5%。

本周走势分为两个阶段。SHIB 在 10月5日攀升至 0.00000592 美元，随后回落至 0.00000528 美元。在此期间，每日成交量从 10月7日的 6,860 万美元增加至 10月8日的 9,030 万美元。价格上涨伴随成交量下降通常被视为卖出信号，表明市场是由抛售推动，而非缺乏买家。目前代币价格距历史最高点仍低 93.7%。

测试路线图承诺的三个检查步骤

今日的数据几天内就会过时。持久有效的是随时自行获取数据的常规方法。只需三个查询，且无需订阅：

1. 首先，看活跃度。 打开区块链浏览器，观察几周内的每日交易量，而非单日读数。单日数据毫无意义，系列数据才有价值。如果宣布升级后系列数据未能上升，则要么升级尚未到位，要么未被使用。对价格而言，这两种情况结果相同。
2. 其次，看资金。 链上存入的资金比交易量更难粉饰，因为它是真实移动的资金。如果资金仅在六位数级别，说明该链缺乏支撑价格的实际应用。
3. 第三，看日期。 寻找具体的主网上线日期，而不是一个季度，也不是关于“宣布”的公告。找不到日期就将该催化剂视为不存在。区分“文档记录”与“希望”零成本，却能避免昂贵的失望。

By executing these queries once a month, you can form your own judgment without relying on the opinions of analysts.

Purchase risk under the MiCA framework: Two verification tokens with SHIB codes exist on Solana

Since early October, SHIB has also existed on the Solana network as a version bridged via a token. This may sound like a minor issue, but in practice it is an obstacle because there are now two verified tokens on Solana that share the same code ticker. Which is the standard version and how to distinguish them, we explained in detail in our October 7 article.

In practice: The bridge version is not the same asset as the original token on the original Ethereum, because the bridge version additionally relies on the bridge that issued it. If the bridge fails or is attacked, claims on the original assets will be affected, even if prices appear to remain unchanged in your portfolio. When purchasing through an EU-authorized trading platform, you will usually receive a version of Ethereum with the contract address specified in the product description.

According to the European Crypto Asset Markets Regulation (MiCA), providers need to be authorized in member states to trade SHIBs. For you, this is a simple preliminary check: If the provider appears in the national regulatory register, European law applies (including complaint procedures). If not, you will bear the sole risk in the dispute.

Holding period under Article 23 of the Income Tax Act: bridging transactions must be recorded

In Germany, the proceeds from the sale of crypto assets are privately disposed. Earnings after holding for one year are exempt from tax; for less than one year, a tax exemption threshold of 1,000 euros per year applies, and the excess is fully taxed at the personal tax rate. The holding period is determined by the date on which individual positions are taken.

This is where bridging to Solana involves tax issues. Whether the change in the chain is regarded as an exchange and triggers a new holding period has not yet been decided, and the tax authorities have not issued clear guidance. In practice, this means two things: one is to record the date, amount and transaction ID of each bridging transaction to prove the original purchase date if needed; and the other is to expect tax advisers to conservatively calculate the holding period from the date of the bridging transaction in the absence of clarifications.

Spreading positions across multiple wallets and exchanges without the help of tools can quickly blur the acquisition dates. For procedures that track holding periods by position and generate reports for the tax authorities, see our overview of crypto tax tools.

Custody practices: exchange accounts, software wallets and hardware wallets

SHIB is the ERC-20 token on Ethereum, which determines the custody method. In an exchange account, tokens belong to you economically, but technically belong to the exchange, and provider failures can affect your position. In your own wallet, you own the key and take responsibility for backing up the mnemonic words.

For small transactions, this trade-off is easy to resolve, as transaction fees for Ethereum can make transfers expensive. But for four-digit amounts, the calculations are reversed: because the cost of a hardware wallet is negligible compared to the risk of provider failure.

Liquidity and Expenses: Daily turnover of US$90.3 million versus market value of US$3.11 billion

Daily turnover of US$90.3 million represents approximately 2.9% of market value. For private investors, this is ample: three to four-digit orders do not cause significant price fluctuations. Costs arise in the eighth decimal place. At a price of $0.0000528, the minimum representable price step value is approximately 0.19%, and many providers have bid-ask spreads above this level.

Therefore, for SHIB, it should be calculated as a percentage of total cost rather than a percentage of price fluctuations. With a one-sided transaction fee of 0.25% plus a spread, the total cost of completing one entry and exit is approximately 1%. Prices must overcome this obstacle to generate any gain.

Bull-and-bear market cases: attributed to the impact of upgrades

The optimistic scenario raised in market reviews is as follows: If confidential execution is actually launched on the main network, Shibarium will have almost no features provided by competing Layer-2 networks, and applications will have reason to migrate there. Increased usage will increase token destruction through network fees. This hypothetical chain is logically continuous, but it depends entirely on the first link.

Caution does not require assumptions, just measurements. A chain with only a few thousand transactions per day and locked in six-figure funds is unattractive to application developers, and a target window that does not bring new dates undermines the credibility of future announcements. In this case, SHIB is still a token whose price follows overall market sentiment and lacks its own catalyst.

Between these two interpretations, decisions depend on dates rather than price targets. As long as the date is missing, a cautious interpretation is consistent with the data.

Shiba Inu forecast: US$0.0000610 remains the 90-day upper limit

The 90-day high is US$0.00000610 and the low is US$0.0000411. Everything that has happened since July is within this range, and as long as the upgrade date is not set, this is the most honest frame of reference for the next few weeks. Three steps are derived from this:

• Fixed the measurement point before trading. Note the two values in the 90-day range and the current trading volume series at Shibarium. Without these starting values, it is impossible to tell after four weeks whether the situation has improved.
• Evaluate custody separately from price issues. Positions planned to be held for one year should not be placed in exchange accounts for convenience. For a list of devices that directly hold Ethereum tokens, please refer to Hardware Wallet Comparison.
• Ensure holding periods in records. Keep records of the purchase date, amount, and each chain change until the tax treatment of the bridge is clarified. For the process of tracking this, please refer to the Overview of Tax Tools.

(As of October 8, 2026. This article does not constitute investment advice. Price and fee structures are subject to change; please check terms with your provider before purchasing.)