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Bitcoin breaks through $76,000, gray calls June low the bottom of the cycle

2026-09-18 03:12:48
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Grayscale研究主管:比特币已触底,建议客户增加配置

Grayscale研究主管Zach Pandl表示,比特币(BTC)已于6月30日左右在58,000美元附近达到周期低点。目前,该资产管理公司已开始建议客户增加对该资产类别的配置敞口。这一观点是在纽约举行的Avalanche Summit峰会上,他接受The Block采访时分享的。Pandl指出,Grayscale早在数月前就做出了这一判断,且此后未再改变立场。

截至9月17日,BTC交易价格高于76,000美元,过去24小时内上涨0.8%。尽管如此,其价格仍比约126,000美元的历史新高低约39%。Coinbase首席执行官Brian Armstrong在9月10日表达了类似的看法,他认为BTC已经触底,并预计价格在接下来的两年内将呈上升趋势,直至下一次减半事件发生。

Grayscale的三分法配置框架

Grayscale通过三个标准来评估客户的资产配置决策。第一个标准是数字资产的长期结构性趋势;第二个标准是市场当前所处的周期位置;第三个标准是更广泛宏观经济环境的状态。

Pandl said that all three criteria have been met. He cited continued digital asset adoption as an example to demonstrate that structural trends remained strong; he pointed out that the end of the bear market period confirmed the current cyclical position. At the macro level, he said that current conditions support the argument for asset allocation. "It seems to me that all of those conditions are in place today," he said,"so we are really giving customers a green light."

Zcash and privacy issues

Pandl also talked about Zcash (ZEC), an investment product for which Grayscale has held for about nine years. He believes that digital currencies in the broad sense lack an effective privacy layer, and Bitcoin's transparent design leaves this gap. He said Zcash fills this space with a deliberate trade-off between on-chain transparency (as provided by Bitcoin) and user privacy.

He described ZEC as being in an "underutilized and underexplored design space" rather than competing with BTC for the same user base. He also linked privacy needs to artificial intelligence, believing that as AI systems enhance their capabilities, the need for tools to protect personal and financial data will grow. Pandl said Zcash provides investors with a way to lay out around this theme.

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