比特币牛市取决于8.5万美元支撑位和新增买盘：Bitfinex分析师

Bitcoin stabilized in the intensive buying cost range of US$85,000 to US$86,500, and Bitfinex analysts pointed out the need to continue ETF and corporate purchasing to confirm the bull market.

Bitcoin fell back after hitting a high of US$87,392 and is currently consolidating within the intensive buying cost range of US$85,000 to US$86,500. Bitfinex analysts said that to confirm the formation of a new bull market, we must see continued inflows of ETFs and corporate purchases.

Bitcoin had previously hit its highest price since January 29, and then pulled back towards the main buying cost range. Bitfinex pointed out that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF attracted $1.71 billion in inflows in the two days of September 21 and 22. Analysts stressed that during the first correction of Bitcoin, the profit supply ratio needs to remain above 75%.

Currently, the break-even point for ETF investors is about US$86,000, while the average cost for corporate buyers is about US$80,500.

The significance of the $85,000 buyer range

Bitfinex Alpha pointed out in a September 23 report that Bitcoin's rise from a July low of $57,803 has reached a critical testing stage that has been used in past cycles to distinguish a protracted bull market from a failed pullback. Analysts identified the $85,000 to $86,500 range as the largest concentration of buyer costs in the near future. If this area can be held, it indicates that buyers who entered during the rebound are willing to hold positions during the pullback.

据Bitfinex统计，约有633,000枚BTC在85,000至86,500美元之间换手，形成了其价格分布数据中最大的成本区间。随着比特币攀升，买家在四个交易日内将约295万枚BTC转入盈利状态。与此同时，80,500至82,500美元价格带内的集中供应量从周日的252,000枚下降至周二的170,000枚（每1,000美元价格带）。

对于分析师而言，位于现货价格下方的新集中度比反弹速度本身提供了更有用的测试指标。若价格跌破该区间，将使许多近期买家重回亏损；若在该区间上方维持强劲买盘，则表明突破后的需求仍在持续。

这种区分至关重要，因为平仓空头头寸的交易者被迫买入可能会迅速推高价格，但并未建立持久的需求来源。此前报道指出，Nansen高级研究分析师Nicolai Sondergaard认为，比特币突破84,000美元的部分原因是对冲挤压与ETF买盘复苏共同作用的结果。他警告称，基金流入减弱或美国国债收益率上升可能导致涨势面临反转风险。

Bitfinex set the next price test point around Bitcoin's opening price of US$87,722 at the beginning of the year. Analysts expect the $90,000 target to become clear if prices stabilize above the $85,000 to $86,500 range, ETF funds continue to flow in and futures funding rates remain neutral. Below the buyer range, analysts regard the cost line of corporate treasury positions of US$80,500 as the first support level. If the price effectively falls below US$81,300, especially with outflows of ETF funds, it will pose a challenge to the validity of the breakthrough reading.

ETF and corporate purchases need to continue above cost

Bitfinex report shows that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF absorbed US$999 million on September 21 and another US$714.7 million on September 22. Monday's inflow was the largest single-day net inflow since October 6, 2025, when Bitcoin hit a record high. In the four trading days ended September 22, these funds absorbed a total of US$2.31 billion, equivalent to approximately 27,900 BTC units at average daily prices.

The purchase followed a $450.4 million ETF outflow on September 15, which Bitfinex called the fund's largest one-day withdrawal since June. For U.S. investors using listed spot funds, the next flow of funds data will show whether buying continues with an overall ETF investor cost base close to $86,000. Bitfinex pointed out that this week the ETF and corporate treasury groups held profitable positions at the same time, for the first time since January this year.

企业备案文件提供了第二项衡量标准。根据Strategy公司的SEC备案文件显示，该公司在截至9月20日的一周内购买了950枚BTC，花费7,570万美元，使其总持仓量达到846,000枚。备案还显示，该公司花费1.74亿美元回购STRC优先股。Strategy利用现有现金完成了这两笔交易，当周未通过股票发行计划出售任何资产。

Bitfinex还统计了Strive公司在9月14日至18日期间购买的1,355枚BTC。报告称，这两家公司在一周内共收购2,305枚BTC，相比之下，过去三个月内所有公开国库总计收购了约5,900枚BTC。这两笔购买均在分析师估算的企业国库群体平均成本80,500美元以下执行。

“关键的测试在于这两个群体是否能在各自成本基准之上维持持续的净买入。”Bitfinex表示。只有在价格跌至投资者平均入场成本之下后才出现的购买行为可能只是支撑下跌趋势，但分析师指出，这无法建立持续上涨所需的持续性需求。

持有者数据尚未确认牛市

链上数据为Bitfinex提供了另一种检查反弹能否挺过首次挫折的方法。比特币处于盈利状态的供应份额从9月17日的63%上升至9月22日的78.2%。分析师希望该指标在首次回调期间保持在75%以上；若跌破该水平，则表明刚刚重新获利的持有者已将仓位卖出。

截至9月22日，比特币市值与实现价值的比率（MVRV）为1.62，低于其长期平均水平约1.8。Bitfinex将该平均水平与当前实现价格下约95,000美元的比特币价格联系起来。分析师表示，若该比率突破并站稳，且伴随ETF资金流入，将加强牛市论点；反之，若尝试失败，则将类似于之前因需求耗尽而失败的反弹行情。

近期买家仍保持盈利。Bitfinex将短期持有者的MVRV定为1.20，对应群体成本基准为71,763美元。报告指出，1.3至1.4的读数对应高于93,000美元的价格，历史上该区域近期买家更倾向于获利了结。

长期持有者的信号则不那么明确。Bitfinex指出，该群体一直抛售至8月下旬，其总持仓变化仍为负值，尽管抛售速度有所放缓。其最新可用的长期持有者支出输出利润比为0.77（截至9月16日），意味着该群体花费的硬币是以低于其平均获取成本的价格换手。分析师希望该比率在比特币价格持稳时升至1.0以上，表明市场能够吸收获利了结卖出的硬币。

Bitfinex将87,000至90,000美元确定为1月份买家（其硬币现已转化为长期持有者群体）的盈亏平衡区。其报告还指出，在分析之时，比特币价格高出76,677美元的真实市场均值约12%，高出52,785美元的实现价格约63%。