Ethereum researchers warn: Artificial intelligence may crack cryptocurrency wallets

Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake called on crypto holders to prepare for possible AI-assisted ECDSA cracking

On October 7, Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake issued a warning that the worst-case failure could occur "within months" rather than years later, before quantum computers pose the expected threat. He urged crypto holders to be prepared to deal with potential algorithmic risks.

Core Summary

• Justin Drake suggested that crypto holders plan to transfer assets to new addresses where the public key is not exposed.
• Vitalik Buterin supports taking the risks of AI-assisted cryptography seriously, but warns users not to rush into wallet migration.
• Ethereum has established a dedicated anti-quantum team with the goal of completing the construction of core anti-quantum infrastructure around 2029.
• The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) standardized hash-based SLH-DSA in 2024, providing a mature quantum-resistant signature scheme for digital systems.
• Project Eleven tracked millions of Bitcoin addresses that exposed public keys and could be at risk of attack.

Drake's "bunker model" initiative

In a post posted on October 7, Drake called on the blockchain industry to calmly start planning the so-called "bunker model." The core of his proposal is to gradually move funds to fresh addresses where their public keys have not yet been exposed, and recommends that large holders and institutions take the lead in taking this step. Drake repeatedly emphasized the need to avoid panic, pointing out that a poorly managed migration itself could bring new risks.

It needs to be clear that this is still a risk scenario, not evidence that ECDSA has been cracked. Drake defines a worst-case scenario where an attacker uses existing hardware, such as a large GPU cluster, to recover the private key from the public key in about a week. There are currently no public work attacks that fit this description.

Why do I need a fresh address?

ECDSA is used to authorize transactions for standard Ethereum accounts and plays a central role in protecting Bitcoin wallets. The private key creates the signature, and the corresponding public key allows the network to verify the signature without revealing the private key.

Ethereum's official document on subsequent volumes states that if an ordinary Ethereum account only receives funds and has never sent a transaction, its public key is not exposed on the chain. Once an account signs a transaction, its public key is recovered from the signature. Therefore, future methods of deriving private keys from that public key could threaten remaining funds.

Drake recommends that users using an address should transfer any remaining assets to another unused address after signing a transaction. He said the process could use addresses generated from the same mnemonic phrase, which means his current proposal does not require a new wallet format or a new cryptographic algorithm.

Today, I call on the blockchain industry to calmly start planning a "bunker model." My personal recommendation is to promote controlled mass migration of assets to fresh addresses (i.e., addresses where the public key is hidden behind the hash). Holders, first of all, large... --Justin Drakejustin (@drakefjustin) October 7, 2026

The peculiarities of Bitcoin

The Bitcoin situation requires some additional distinctions because not all unused addresses hide their public keys. Project Eleven said that address types, including P2PK and Taproot, can expose public key information without spending, while address reuse exposes keys for several other address types. In its September 14 update, the Bitcoin Risk List tracked more than 8.1 million bitcoins located in addresses classified as vulnerable to quantum attacks.

Drake specifically mentioned the tracker and urged Binance, Bitbank, Robinhood, Bitfinex and Tether to check its cold storage settings. The tracker identifies addresses based on publicly visible key exposure; listing does not mean that attackers can currently deduce their private key.

Vitalik Buterin warns users not to act hastily

以太坊联合创始人维塔利克·布特林对这一警告做出了回应，他在支持对AI辅助数学更加谨慎的同时，并未呼吁立即转移资金。

布特林表示，“我不建议任何人今天匆忙地将钱移到新钱包里。”他认为，加密货币开发者仍应认真对待AI驱动的数学进步，并减少对可能被证明比预期更弱的密码学的依赖。

他的担忧不仅限于椭圆曲线。布特林表示，未来两年内，格基密码学（lattice-based cryptography）的具体安全性可能会受到AI辅助数学发现的冲击，尽管他并未声称任何格系统已被破解。他倾向于在使用时采用基于哈希的设计，并建议对依赖格的系统采用更保守的参数。

对于个人持有者，布特林表示，当安全容易实现时，将资金保存在从未进行过交易的地址中是有用的。他警告说，仓促迁移过程中的错误本身可能导致损失，这加强了德雷克关于受控流程而非紧急移动的呼吁。

OpenAI的数学发布并未破解ECDSA

德雷克将警告的时间点与AI辅助数学的快速进展联系起来，包括OpenAI在10月6日发布的由内部前沿模型产生的数学研究。

OpenAI's official announcement stated that the work covered a range of mathematical results and contained supporting evidence. The public repository currently contains 722 manuscripts covering 372 result families, which were generated after the model was tested on approximately 4,000 research questions.

OpenAI has not announced attacks against ECDSA, RSA or cryptocurrency wallets. Its repository states that the results are in different stages of verification, that not every manuscript has Lean formalization, and that some unformalized results "may be flawed."

Drake's interpretation of recent mathematical advances is more radical, writing that "mathematical superintelligence has arrived." He questioned whether AI-assisted new classical algorithms would find shortcuts to elliptic curve systems before quantum computers had the scale needed to run Shor's algorithm to attack elliptic curve systems. His time predictions are still personal risk assessments rather than proven cryptographic breakthroughs.

Ethereum's current documentation takes a less urgent stance on established quantum threats. It points out that today's quantum computers cannot break Ethereum's cryptography, and current users do not need to take action just because of quantum computing.

Ethereum is preparing to replace vulnerable keys

Ahead of Drake's latest AI warning, Ethereum has begun to prepare for post-quantum threats. The Ethereum Foundation established a dedicated anti-quantum security team in January 2026 and has been testing hash-based verifier signatures, new proof systems and anti-quantum interoperability among multiple client teams.

Current plans for the network include leanXMSS, a hash-based signature design designed to eventually replace verifier signatures that are vulnerable to quantum attacks. Ethereum paired this work with leanVM, which aims to effectively aggregate larger quantum-resistant signatures. The roadmap's goal is to complete core quantum-resistant infrastructure by around 2029, although Ethereum describes this date as a variable planning goal.

At the wallet level, EIP-8141 aims to give accounts more freedom in transaction authentication. Ethereum's roadmap lists EIP-8141 as part of the Hegotá upgrade, currently scheduled for 2027, which may eventually allow accounts to adopt a quantum-resistant signature-resistant method without transferring all assets to a different address format.

As previously reported analysis states, the network is working to replace vulnerable ECDSA and BLS signatures while reducing its reliance on cryptographic assumptions threatened by quantum computing. There have been recent reports that EIP-8141 may allow Ethereum accounts to rotate authentication methods without requiring users to abandon the account itself.

There are established standards for hash-based signatures

Outside of Ethereum, there are established standards for hash-based signatures. The National Institute of Standards and Technology finalized FIPS 205 in 2024 and created SLH-DSA from SPHINCS+, a hash-based digital signature scheme specifically designed for post-quantum security.

Institutional wallet providers have begun testing separate methods. BitGo has reportedly teamed up with Silence Laboratories to test post-quantum MPC wallet signatures, while Coinbase is designing a post-quantum escrow infrastructure to accommodate any signature method eventually adopted by major blockchains.

Drake will speak to institutional participants at the Ethereum Institutional Forum in London on November 12. The official agenda lists a 10 a.m. meeting titled "Post-Quantum Ethereum", followed by a technology roadmap discussion and a live Ethereum Q & A session.