加密市场总市值迟迟无法稳站3万亿美元关口,10月10日那次突如其来的闪崩,直接打乱了原本被寄予厚望的“山寨季”节奏。数据显示,截至年初至今,以太坊(ETH)和瑞波币(XRP)收益已双双转负,资金明显回流至比特币及少数强势资产,而币安币(BNB)却逆势走强,YTD仍录得约21%的涨幅,成为少数跑赢市场的主流代币。在这种分化愈发明显的背景下,2026年初这些核心山寨币将如何演变,成为投资者最关心的问题之一。围绕市场数据、资金流向与叙事变化,谷歌旗下AI模型Gemini给出了它对ETH、XRP与BNB后市走向的判断。
1 – Gemini对瑞波币(XRP)的预测
瑞波币(XRP)在今年于2024年末强劲拉升后进入盘整。它在与美国证券交易委员会(SEC)长期诉讼中的法律胜利,以及强劲的生态系统增长举措,影响了其在2025年的价格表现。

据Gemini称,为了防止大幅下跌至1.20美元,需要关注的关键支撑位是1.75美元区域。
与此同时,其最重要的阻力位在2.36美元。这也是该代币200日指数移动平均线(EMA)所在的位置。若价格突破该水平,将确认XRP的看涨前景。
Gemini对2026年第1季度作出如下预测:
“急剧下跌似乎已经停止,这表明2026年初可能进入筑底过程。”
2 – Gemini’s predictions for Ethereum (ETH)
Ethereum’s performance this year is largely due to the successful implementation of the Pectra upgrade in April. This significant technological upgrade pushed prices to new historical highs a few months later.

Gemini suggests that the key support level at 2,800 USD should be monitored closely. If the price falls below this level, it could drop further to 2,400 USD in the short term.
Meanwhile, the region of 3,370 USD appears to be a crucial resistance level that prices must break through before they can rebound back to the 4,000 USD range.
Gemini’s forecast for Ethereum by early 2026 is that prices will remain stable. Based on analysis of recent price trends, Gemini concludes that “ETH is likely to trade sideways at the beginning of 2026, attempting to establish a bottom.”
“ETH may experience sideways movement at the beginning of 2026, trying to form a bottom.”
“By the beginning of 2026, a decisive trend is likely to emerge, with the market breaking away from the critical level of $850. Given that the RSI indicator remains stable at 47, there’s a slight chance of a rebound, rather than a crash, if the overall cryptocurrency market stabilizes.” Gemini believes that the market has already reached its bottom.
After analyzing the price movements of these three major altcoins, Gemini shares the following interesting insights regarding the overall state of the cryptocurrency market:
“The chart shows that the cryptocurrency market is either at the end of the correction period or in the early stages of accumulating assets. The explosive growth that occurred in mid-2025 has diminished, and by early 2026, the market is likely to be characterized by stability and moderate fluctuations.”

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