击穿斩杀线，长期投机主义成了年轻人的唯一选择

In the encrypted market and the world of widespread investment, I’m not a master at stock picking. But I believe in a simple strategy: to spread our nets widely, taking risks with low odds (≤53%). At the same time, we must firmly believe that long-term speculative behavior will become the mainstream economic trend for the next century. This explains why people over 40 years old advise you to be practical and seek raises, while young people rush into risky investments in search of quick wealth. Understanding this psychology helps us comprehend why decentralized exchanges, prediction markets, trading mentors, business courses, and paid subscription services have emerged like mushrooms after a rain. What they offer is, in essence, hope.

Preparation steps

A person isn’t actually imprisoned until they’re confined in an invisible cage. Some generations live in such cages.

They know that such lives exist: homes, stable lives, and the rewards of doing the right things for thirty years. They know that others have achieved this. They just can’t imagine how to reach that level. It’s not “difficult,” but rather they simply can’t create a practical path from their current position to the destination they should reach.

The traditional path to wealth accumulation has become closed off. It’s not difficult, but it’s completely closed. When the baby boomer generation accounts for only 20% of the population yet holds about 50% of national wealth, while the millennial generation, with the same proportion of the population, only holds about 10% of that wealth, it becomes clear that this system for accumulating wealth has fundamentally failed.

梯子被抽走了，这并非婴儿潮一代的本意;资产价格上涨只是恰好让那些已经拥有资产的人受益。但结果是一样的。

传统契约的崩溃

过去，潜规则很简单：按时上班，努力工作，保持忠诚，就会得到回报。公司提供养老金。工龄很重要。你的房子在你睡觉的时候也在升值。只要你信任这套体系，它就能正常运转。

那笔交易告吹了。

在一家公司待上20年如今已不再是优势，反而成了职业生涯的负担。工资增长了8%，而住房成本却翻了一番，年轻人的债务支出增加了约33%。这样的形势已经不再支持继续保持耐心了。

从更宏观的角度来看，我以前认为情况很糟糕，但随着人工智能的出现及其将带来的经济影响(即使是以现有技术而言)，我认为情况只会变得更加糟糕。

当制度不再奖励耐心时，人们也就不再有耐心了。

可以称之为理性适应。

推拉

这里有两种力量在起作用。

拉力：无处安放的高阶需求

现代社会基本解决了马斯洛需求层次理论中最底层的问题。食物价格低廉，基本住所也已具备。安全、医疗和基本就业虽然不能完全保障，但已基本到位，大多数年轻人无需为生存而挣扎。

In the past few generations, people faced economic difficulties. They had to deal with a different kind of problem. When you are struggling to get by, you have no time to think about the meaning of life. It’s understandable that people work hard, because there is no other choice—otherwise, they would starve to death. People choose stable jobs, stay silent, and avoid causing trouble, because these jobs allow them to survive.

This generation doesn’t face such distractions.

Once the basic needs are met, people begin to pursue higher-level desires: a sense of belonging, respect, and self-actualization. They want to experience something meaningful, to feel that their lives aren’t just stagnant, but are actually progressing forward. However, the traditional paths to these higher-level desires—having a home, career advancement, and financial security—are being blocked.

In general, we’re like apes, instinctively scratching at the wounds of our higher-level self-actualization needs. Blood keeps flowing, but we really don’t know how to improve further.

The driving force behind this situation, and why it’s getting worse, is…

It’s well-known that artificial intelligence is taking over white-collar jobs.

This anxiety isn’t just hypothetical anymore. ChatGPT can write texts better than most junior marketers. Midjourney produces visuals that even top designers can envy. The code written by Cursor and Claude can pass any review. Except for those who lack essential skills, this reality has become widely accepted.

Every month, new benchmarks emerge, indicating that artificial intelligence has surpassed humans in performing certain tasks that were once only achievable with expensive degrees and years of training.

White-collar workers, or those who have high aspirations for their economic prospects, are closely monitoring the shrinking timeline by which artificial intelligence will replace knowledge-based employees. Three years ago, the idea that artificial intelligence would replace knowledge-based employees was still a hypothesis; now it has become a planned reality. People no longer ask “will this happen?” but rather “when will it happen?” And the predicted time frame is getting shorter and shorter.

There’s also social media, which makes it impossible to be satisfied with the current situation.

This algorithm is optimized to show you everything that might exist in the future. It represents holidays that you still haven’t had, apartments that you can’t afford, and another lifestyle option beyond what you currently have. No matter where you stand on the ladder of life, there will always be people better than you, and the algorithm will find them.

Previous generations had limited knowledge about others’ lifestyles. They would compare themselves to neighbors, colleagues, and even some celebrities from magazines. The reference group was narrow. But now, the reference group is infinitely vast. A 25-year-old man with an annual income of $70,000 is constantly surrounded by information about people whose annual income is $2 million, who live in Bali and work just four hours a day. The standard of “enough” is also constantly changing.

You will never be able to catch up. No matter what achievements you make, social media will constantly remind you of what you’ve missed. The gap between your life and the life “you should have” is maintained by algorithms, and it can never be filled.

Artificial intelligence has shortened our timeline, and social media makes it seem like we can never truly achieve success. The pressure to escape as soon as possible, before it’s too late, increases every day.

This anxiety is everywhere. Every white-collar worker has thought: “Can artificial intelligence replace my job? When will that happen?” And most people don’t like the answers they get. Even if they feel safe for now, that “safe” period is getting shorter by the second.

So, this generation can’t afford traditional milestones in life, and they believe that even if they follow this path, it might disappear before they reach its end. Taking risks while still having money and opportunities is the rational approach to deal with this situation.

Why struggle for 20 years just to get a promotion that might not exist in 10 years?

Maslow’s Trap

When you can survive but not make any progress, problems arise in certain areas of your life. You’re not yet desperate enough to accept any trade-offs, but you’re excluded from the truly important deals. The cognitive resources that were once used for survival are now used for… frustration. For searching. For finding any possible path forward.

职业发展不仅仅意味着收入，更意味着目标、身份认同，以及工作意义感。财务保障不仅仅意味着金钱，更意味着拥有承担风险、旅行、建设和创造的自由。

当这些出路都已关闭，而且实现目标的期限也越来越短时，压力必须转移到其他地方。这些囚犯需要一条出路，而且他们现在就需要一条出路。

赌场：唯一的救命稻草

我最初是在L1加密货币领域看到这种现象的，当时觉得它只是一时的风潮。后来我在NFT领域再次看到它，之后又在NFT和恶意交易平台之间的一系列混乱局面中一次又一次地看到它，而现在，显然又出现了所谓的“预测市场超级周期”。

那些无法想象在一家公司苦苦挣扎的年轻人，却会毫不犹豫地花几个月时间学习加密货币交易。他们会投入大量时间研究预测市场，以期了解他们深信已被操纵的经济体系。那些将传统投资斥为“内幕交易”的人，却会把房租都押在一种“模因币”上。

为什么?

因为赌场是他们唯一能感受到掌控感的地方。也是唯一能让他们的决定真正解锁下一阶段，并在关键时刻发挥作用的地方。

Traditional career paths? Your manager was promoted because of his long experience, not because of his skills. Moreover, it’s likely that your entire department will eventually be replaced by automation. The stock market? Of course, if you still have your job, you might earn 10% annual returns. After 47 years, you could afford to buy a house.

But what about cryptocurrencies? Predictive markets? Sports betting? Here, your research is crucial. Belief can bring rewards. Even imagined advantages feel like something you own, rather than something waiting for you to acquire. When you place bets, your judgment will directly determine the outcome.

There’s always an advantage in favor of the casinos. Most people will lose. I believe most people understand this. But they’re gambling, not waiting for a future that may never come. Those who urge people to stop gambling don’t understand the predicament of gamblers. They always assume, arrogantly, that “you have a negative advantage.” In my opinion, gamblers fully understand this.

Those who say “gaming is bad, you should quit gaming” are usually people from the upper class who enjoy privileges. They see a way out, a direction forward. So they urge others to follow them, believing that God will favor them.

For many who are imprisoned, gambling is their salvation. In reality, you’re telling them to accept eternal damnation. That’s why your well-intentioned advice goes unheeded.

What about specific figures?

● Predictive markets:Polymarket和Kalshi仅在2025年11月的交易量就超过100亿美元。两家公司年交易量合计接近400亿美元。而2020年，这一数字几乎为零。增长率呈垂直上升趋势。

● 体育博彩：合法体育博彩收入从2017年的2.48亿美元增长到2024年的137亿美元。Z世代和千禧一代占博彩活动的76%。这两个群体在在线体育博彩网站上的活动量同比增长了7%。

TransUnion的报告将这些赌徒定义为“投机者”：他们是城市租房者，加密货币应用程序的重度用户，集中在移动交易平台上。这些年轻人被传统的财富积累方式拒之门外，只能在唯一能提供这种回报的市场中寻求不对称收益。

经济理论支持这一点

当你身陷困境时，你的风险偏好会发生改变。

经济学家称之为“亏损中的凸效用”：当你已经亏损时，你宁愿选择挽回局面的较小概率，也不愿接受一定程度的损失。这与人们在二十一点游戏中落后时选择加倍下注的原因相同。这也是为什么彩票在贫困社区更畅销的原因。

我的看法是，社交媒体和我们更高层次的需求，让那些经济地位远低于上层阶级的人们，觉得自己已经处于一种匮乏的状态。贫困线被重新定义了。这就是为什么你会看到有人一本正经地谈论15万美元的贫困线。这一代人不再是为了生存而冒险，而是为了拥有真正的人生而冒险。

当你的基本需求得到满足，但更高层次的需求却受阻时，金钱不再关乎安全，而是关乎获取途径。获取体验的途径。获取自由的途径。获取那些你看得见却无法触及的生活的途径。房子不仅仅是遮风避雨的地方;它让你拥有扎根的土壤，建立社群，感受到自己像个成年人。旅行并非奢侈;它是一种体验，让生命充满意义。

对于看不到通过传统途径实现这些目标的一代人来说，冒险的预期价值似乎比苦苦挣扎的预期价值更有吸引力。如果你的底线是“永远原地踏步”，那么即使只有5%的逃脱几率，也比100%的停滞不前更有吸引力。

这并非金融知识匮乏，而是受限条件下的显性偏好。

Those gamblers who are obsessed with meme coins, sports bettors, enthusiasts who predict market trends, and subscribers to trading experts—they understand that the odds of winning are very low. They also realize that there are other alternatives. When your options are either “definitely not possible” or “possibly not possible, but with a very small chance of success,” then the second option is always better.

Over time, this situation will deteriorate further.

So, what would you choose to buy?

If this assessment is correct, meaning that the young generation who are economically excluded will continue to seek autonomy through high-volatility financial products, then you should invest in any stocks that meet this need.

The profitability of a platform has nothing to do with the users’ outcomes. What you’re looking for are platforms that don’t care whether you win money or whether their predictions are correct. You’re looking for companies that charge fees from user activities, and these activities are growing constantly.

● Entrepreneurship track: This “escape from the 9-to-5 job” industry is large in scale and continues to expand. Course creators sell delivery services, coaches promote agency models, and experts share their secrets for making $100,000 per month. “Starting your own business” has become a socially accepted “winning ticket”; it gives people a sense of achievement, as if they’re creating something valuable. The fact that most entrepreneurs fail doesn’t reduce market demand, just like the low probability of winning the lottery doesn’t deter people from playing.

● Prediction markets: The valuation of Polymarket ranges between $8 billion and $10 billion. According to industry insiders, its total market size is equivalent to “the entire gambling industry,” with a value exceeding trillions of dollars. Even if this figure is estimated to be 90% higher than actual, it still represents a massive market.

● Cryptocurrency infrastructure: Hosting, trading, staking, lending. Every new investor requires access to these services. Companies like Coinbase, Robinhood’s cryptocurrency division, and professional exchanges can benefit from trading volume.

● Sports betting operators: DraftKings, FanDuel, and their infrastructure providers. Legal sports betting is still being implemented in various states, but regulatory barriers remain.

● Social trading and communities: Discord servers, Twitter accounts, Substack newsletters targeting this audience. There is high demand for such content, and people are willing to pay to access it early.

Betting isn’t about predicting which individual will win, but rather about betting that this phenomenon will continue. The economic conditions that drive young people to engage in high-risk betting won’t change. Platforms that charge fees from these activities will continue to grow as the user base expands. People who are in financial trouble will keep betting again and again, just like Sisphuchs filling out his 401st lottery ticket.

Considering our understanding of the accelerating development of artificial intelligence, housing costs, wealth distribution, and intergenerational economics… does this seem like a temporary phenomenon?

Ethical aspects

请注意，本论文是描述性的，而不是规范性的。

看着一代人试图通过彩票，哪怕是复杂的彩票，来寻求经济上的救赎，这并非值得庆贺之事。预测市场和网络货币似乎成了获得掌控感的唯一途径，这恰恰反映了社会的某种弊病。庄家赢了，大多数玩家输了。

但了解正在发生的事情能让你做好准备，让你反思，让你决定是否要参与其中。如果决定参与，你应该睁大眼睛，全力以赴，在你拥有优势的领域下注。

各个时代的赌场都从绝望中牟利。如今的绝望情绪真实存在，有据可查，而且还在不断加剧。这些赌场包括Hope Sellers、Polymarket、Coinbase和DraftKings。他们会继续抽取佣金。

你可以就此进行道德评判，也可以继续持有这些平台的股票。说真的，这确实是你可以退出的途径之一。或者你也可以选择投机取巧，如果你这么做了，最好确保自己有足够的实力。

很好。因为这不是游戏，我们谈论的是你的人生。如果你要拿自己的灵魂做赌注，就必须尽一切可能确保自己获胜。

结论

我留给你一个故事……

I know a person who is very intelligent and works in the tech industry. His income is quite good, according to any historical standards. Last month, he “invested” $100,000 into upgrading his Pern points. It wasn’t because he thought it was a good investment.

As he said himself, “What else could I do? Save money for 20 years, waiting until I’m 55 to buy an apartment.”

I know he’s definitely waiting for the next update of the catalog, and he will try again later.