Micro-strategies for accumulating cash: The defense mechanisms used by Bitcoin’s “giant whales”

当“最铁比特币多头”开始主动囤现金，市场信号显然不再简单。12月初，全球最大BTC持仓上市公司Strategy突然放缓买币节奏，转而建立约14亿美元的现金缓冲，通过增发股票覆盖未来近两年的利息与股息支出。这一变化发生在比特币高位震荡、融资成本走高的背景下，被不少投资者解读为对周期波动的提前应对：不再把公司命运完全绑在币价上涨上，而是用现金流稳住基本盘。这一步，或许意味着“无脑加仓BTC”的时代正在向更偏理性的财务管理阶段过渡。

一、事件核心：储备金详情与资金来源

● Strategy的现金储备计划清晰展现了公司财务策略的转变。该公司通过ATM股票销售计划出售普通股筹集资金，具体在2025年11月17日至30日期间，Strategy共出售了821.4万股普通股，筹集净收益14.78亿美元。

这资金的绝大部分被用于建立现金储备，公司明确表示储备将专门用于覆盖未来21个月的股息支付和债务利息。

● 在宣布建立现金储备的同时，Strategy的比特币购买活动明显放缓。数据显示，在相同的11月17日至30日期间，公司仅购入130枚比特币，总支出1170万美元。

● 这与该公司过去几年持续大规模购币的做法形成了鲜明对比。截至2025年11月30日，Strategy累计持有65万枚比特币，占全球比特币总量的3.1%。

二、战略意图：从激进扩张到防御巩固

● Strategy建立现金储备的首要目的是守护公司信用。该公司发行了多个系列的优先股，包括STRF、STRK、STRD等，这些优先股承诺了8%-10%的年化收益率。这种高收益率承诺带来了沉重的支付压力，如果无法按时支付股息，可能引发信用评级下降、融资成本上升的恶性循环。

● 建立现金储备的另一个重要考量是建立防线，避免“死亡螺旋”。市场一直担忧，如果比特币价格暴跌，公司可能被迫大规模抛售比特币来维持运营，从而加剧市场下跌。14.4亿美元的储备正是对这一担忧的直接回应，为公司提供了至少21个月的缓冲期。

● 此外，Strategy试图吸引更广泛的投资者群体。通过预留21个月的股息资金，公司希望吸引传统的收益型投资者，这些投资者看重稳定的现金回报，而不必理解比特币的深层逻辑。

这意味着即使比特币价格大幅下跌，股息仍能按时发放，提高了公司对保守型投资者的吸引力。

三、市场反应与股价表现

● After the announcement, Strategy’s stock price dropped by more than 10% on December 1, 2025. The lowest point reached $156, and the stock closed at $172. The market expressed significant concerns over Strategy’s shift in its position as one of Bitcoin’s largest buyers.

● There are differing opinions among analysts. According to data from TipRanks, Wall Street analysts continue to rate Strategy as “strong buy,” based on 12 buy recommendations and 2 hold recommendations over the past three months. The average target price is $467.75, which means there is an opportunity for a rise of 182.59% from the current level.

● There is intense controversy within the Bitcoin community regarding this decision. Some investors believe that this represents a betrayal of Bitcoin-based strategies, as shareholder equity is diluted in exchange for fiat currency that may depreciate in value. One of the main concerns is that when the largest buyers announce plans to slow down their purchases, it could further weaken the already fragile market confidence. Strategy has always been one of the most important “buyers” in the Bitcoin market. A decrease in its purchasing power could lead to further downward pressure on Bitcoin in the short term.

IV. Financial Challenges and Regulatory Pressures

● Strategy faces various financial challenges. Due to the decline in Bitcoin prices, the company has significantly lowered its financial expectations for 2025. Initially, the company projected that Bitcoin prices would reach $150,000 by the end of the year. Now, the target price has been adjusted to between $85,000 and $110,000.

Based on this new price range, the company has updated its key targets: the target yield for Bitcoin has been reduced to 22% to 26%, and the target increase in Bitcoin’s value compared to the US dollar has also been adjusted downward.

● New challenges in regulation are also becoming increasingly apparent. MSCI is considering excluding companies that hold digital assets accounting for more than 50% of their total assets from its global benchmark index. MSCI believes that such companies are more similar to investment funds rather than operating businesses.

● This proposal poses a direct threat to Strategy. Analysts at TD Cowen estimate that approximately $2.5 billion of Strategy’s market value comes from the MSCI index, with another $5.5 billion coming from other stock indices. If Strategy is excluded from these major indices, the company could face up to $8.8 billion in capital outflows.

V. Industry Impact and Future Prospects

● Strategy’s strategic shift could have a significant impact on the entire Bitcoin industry. As one of the largest holders of Bitcoin, with a holding rate of 3.1% of the world’s total supply, Strategy’s actions serve as a barometer for the industry. The company’s cash reserve plan indicates that Bitcoin financial companies are beginning to focus more on traditional financial stability, which could lead to a new paradigm in the industry.

● It is worth noting that Strategy’s business model relies heavily on continuous financing capabilities. The company’s financial statements show that there is still $14.375 billion available for future stock issuances. However, this “ammunition supply” is limited, especially when market risk appetite decreases.

In the future, Strategy may attempt to adopt Bitcoin lending models to increase revenue. CEO Phong Le said, “When traditional financial institutions enter this field, and we have more trading partners, lending Bitcoin would be an option we consider.”

This shift indicates that the once aggressive “buy and hold” strategy is undergoing adjustments under pressure.

The company’s key metric, mNAV, is receiving close attention. This metric compares a company’s value with the value of its bitcoin holdings. When this ratio falls below 1.0, it means that the stock price is lower than the value of the bitcoin holdings. This could lead to difficult decisions regarding selling bitcoin.

When the price of bitcoin dropped by about 30% from its October high, the stock price of Strategy dropped by 50%. The company’s investment in bitcoin amounted to nearly $10 billion through the issuance of preferred shares, convertible bonds, and common stocks. However, this investment strategy has shown signs of fatigue under market pressure.

The company currently holds 650,000 bitcoins. Its market value used to be several times higher than the value of its bitcoin holdings. Now, that premium is becoming less significant. Cash reserves act as a barrier between Bitcoin beliefs and financial reality. But the real test lies in whether this barrier can withstand the market challenges when the winter of market turmoil lasts longer than the 21-month buffer period.