Review of assets in 2025: Why did Bitcoin perform significantly worse than gold and U.S. stocks?

Looking back at 2025, Bitcoin’s growth rate was significantly lower compared to AI leading stocks like NVIDIA and gold, which continued to rise sharply. On the surface, this seems like a failure to keep up with market trends. But the real reason isn’t just related to price levels. Capital is flowing towards AI productivity and safe-haven assets, as they offer higher certainty. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is in a phase of reduced liquidity and narrative voids after its halving. From a higher perspective, this is a shift in the flow of capital energy and information efficiency, rather than a simple comparison of strengths.

1. The crowding effect of energy arbitrage: The transfer of computational power dominance.

In Musk’s logic, value is often tied to the efficiency of energy conversion. Over the past decade, Bitcoin has been the only asset that can convert large amounts of energy into digital scarce assets. This is a value-based approach based on thermodynamics.

But from 2024 to 2025, a very strong competitor emerged: generative artificial intelligence.

The main driving force behind the stock market now isn’t fiat inflation, but rather an exponential increase in total factor productivity (TFP) brought about by AI. When tech giants invest billions of dollars in building data centers, they are essentially competing for global electricity quotas.

At this stage, the economic value created by using each kilowatt-hour of electricity to train next-generation models or drive high-performance computing chips temporarily outweighs the revenue generated by mining Bitcoin through hash collisions. This difference in marginal benefits leads to choices between prices and capital allocation. You might want to see how many Bitcoin mines have been converted into AI computing centers.

Capital is inherently profit-driven and sensitive to changes in conditions. When the growth curve of silicon-based intelligence becomes steeper than the scarcity curve of “digital reserves,” global excess liquidity will flow preferentially towards productive assets with non-linear growth potential, rather than just digital assets.

2. The “atomic nature” of gold and the “code consensus” of Bitcoin

This year’s strong performance of gold is essentially a result of increased geopolitical entropy worldwide.

In the face of de-globalization and systemic uncertainties, players at the sovereign level need an asset that doesn’t require network connections or any clearing systems. Under such extreme system failure scenarios, ancient gold provides atomic-level certainty.

Although Bitcoin is often referred to as the digital equivalent of gold, it still relies heavily on internet infrastructure and centralized liquidity channels. When systems face risks of physical disruption, atomic-level certainty tends to prevail over Bitcoin’s consensus mechanisms. In any case, physical gold can be held in hand or stored in caves.

Gold serves as a hedge against system collapse, while Bitcoin is currently seen more as a byproduct of system liquidity.

3. The “volatility dampening” brought about by ETFs

Tools determine behavior. The introduction of Bitcoin spot ETFs marks the official domestication of this “beast”.

Once Bitcoin becomes part of traditional asset allocation portfolios, it begins to follow the risk management models used in traditional finance. While this provides long-term financial support, it also significantly reduces its volatility, thereby suppressing its explosive potential.

现在的比特币越来越像是一个高贝塔值的科技指数。由于美联储维持高利率的时间超出了市场预期，这种对流动性极其敏感的“长尾资产”自然会受到压制。

4、生产力奇点对比特币叙事的虹吸

查理·芒格强调机会成本。

如果持有具备垄断地位的AI领军企业能获得高确定性的非线性增长，那么持有不产生现金流的比特币，其机会成本就变得极高。

2025年是人类历史上少有的生产力奇点前夜，所有的资金都在追逐那个可能产生超级智能的节点。比特币作为“货币体系的挑战者”，在生产力革命的叙事面前，其吸引力在短期内被摊薄了。

5、分形结构中的相变调整期

从复杂系统的角度看，美股处于AI驱动的抛物线加速阶段。

在分形几何中，微小的结构通过简单的迭代公式不断自我复制并放大。AI正扮演这个迭代算子。从底层的英伟达算力，到中层的云服务，再到上层的软件应用，每一层都在复制“生产力爆发”的逻辑。这种结构极其宏伟，但也意味着系统正在逼近该局部维度的物理极限。

黄金在旧秩序瓦解中的表现，可以用康托尔集(Cantor Set)的构造过程来理解，康托尔集的构造是不断剔除中间的三分之一。在当前全球金融分形中，被剔除的是“信用扩张”、“不可兑现的承诺”和“高熵的债务”。

随着旧秩序不断被债务危机和地缘动荡切碎，最后剩下的那组互不相连、但坚不可摧的点，就是黄金。这是一种“减法”产生的价值密度，是分形结构中最为稳固的物理底层。

比特币当前的状态，本质上是不同尺度力量的对冲结果：早期参与者的获利抛压，与主权国家和长期资金的持续买入在时间上相互抵消，使价格被压缩在一个长期的低波动区间内。这种长时间的低波动震荡，在动力学上被称为“吸引子(Attractor)”的重构。这一分形系统在通过时间完成积累，为下一次尺度变化预留空间。

归根结底，2025年的比特币并非被证伪，而是被重新定价。它暂时让位于生产力奇点与地缘防御需求的两端，承担的是时间而非方向的成本。当AI的边际效率回落、资金流动性继续外溢时，比特币才会重新回到它真正擅长的角色，跨周期的流动性价值载体。