The largest long-side settlement this year: 5 things you need to know about Bitcoin this week

加密市场从来不缺戏剧性，而本周的比特币走势再次牵动无数投资者的神经。一次规模巨大的多头清算让市场情绪急转直下，也让人们更加关注接下来的关键走势。对于持币者来说，了解当前市场背后的逻辑和潜在风险，比盲目跟风更为重要。本文将带你梳理本周关于比特币必须关注的 5 个核心点，帮助你在动荡中看清方向。

9月最后一周，BTC价格回升至 112,000 美元，令市场感到震惊。

●交易员预测比特币价格走势将再次测试接近 100,000 美元的支撑位，因此比特币价格走势并不理想。

●此次暴跌导致超过 10 亿美元的加密货币多头被清算，这是今年最大的单次清算事件。

●由于即将公布新的通胀数据，美联储及其主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔仍受到交易员的关注。

●美国政界承诺将发布有关比特币的重大声明，这一消息开始在网上流传。

●盈利数据遵循之前的牛市，因为“前期兴奋”暗示即将到来的牛市顶部。

比特币价格在支撑位测试上出现分歧

九月的最后一周开始，比特币已经让交易者们大吃一惊。

Cointelegraph Markets Pro 和 TradingView 的数据显示，在度过一个平淡的周末后，BTC 价格走势出现波动，一度跌至 112,000 美元。

BTC/USD 一小时图。资料来源：Cointelegraph/TradingView

交易员们对这一走势的意义看法不一。一些人警告称，该股将进一步下跌，而另一些人则预计，在出现下行假突破后，该股将反弹至新的局部高点。

交易员 Jelle 在 X 上的一篇帖子中回应道 ：“关键水平正在重新测试 - 在月初收复之后。”

“如果能保持较高的低点，那么 BTC 下一步可能会突破 120,000 美元。”

比特币/美元图表。来源：Jelle/X

Jelle 将 112,000 美元的支撑位重新测试描述为“非常干净”，同时要求回到 116,000 美元。

交易员 Captain Faibik 也认为此次下跌是大范围回调的开始。

“我早在 8 月份就警告过，买家会陷入困境，而事实也确实如此。迟到的买家也陷入了困境，自那以后#Bitcoin 已经下跌了-13%。”X 的一篇帖子写道 。

“从现在开始，我预计又会出现一次看跌走势，可能将 BTC 拖至 10 万美元区域。”

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: Captain Faibik/X

The chart shows the collapse of the ascending wedge pattern on the BTC/USD daily chart.

Although gold and the US stock market reached record highs last week, cryptocurrency commentator WhalePanda expressed disappointment over the weak price of BTC.

“Last week, we received a net inflow of $890 million from ETFs. Saylor bought more,” he said, referring to the Bitcoin wallets managed by American spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and the commercial intelligence company Strategy.

Bitcoin’s weekly chart was flat, with interest rates down, while all other assets, including stocks and gold, rose during the week. The number of Bitcoins in circulation seems to exceed 21 million.

Clearing transactions set a pessimistic record for 2025.

After reaching only 2.8%, the price may have dropped to a low of $112,000. However, the overnight decline in BTC/USD caused significant losses for traders.

On Monday, leverage became a focus of attention, as the price of BTC fell by about $3,000, resulting in crypto clearing amounts exceeding $1 billion.

Data from CoinGlass shows that, as of the time of writing, the total amount cleared in 24 hours was $1.7 billion, with long positions accounting for $1.62 billion.

CoinGlass confirmed to X fans: “This is the largest long position clearance this year.”

Crypto clearing transactions (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

The ChainAnalysis platform by Glassnode indicates that bulls are particularly vulnerable at the level of $113,000.

In response, trader Daan Crypto Trades noted that a large position worth $2 billion was thus closed.

“It’s a complete disaster. We will now wait for opportunities amidst this chaos,” he concluded.

Screenshot of Bitcoin futures positions on exchanges. Source: CoinGlass

Looking ahead, some market participants believe that conditions will worsen before a recovery occurs.

Among them is cryptocurrency investor and entrepreneur Ted Pillows, who warned that BTC prices could see significant buying pressure before any action is taken.

He predicted, “There will be over $2,000,000,000 in liquidation orders for BTC, with prices likely to fluctuate between $106,000 and $108,000.”

“In the coming weeks, it’s possible that prices might break through this level before making significant gains.”

Chart showing BTC liquidation activity. Source: CoinGlass

Market attention is focused on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s personal consumption expenditure data.

With markets expecting another interest rate cut from the Fed, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator will be released this week.

The August personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index data will provide closure to the discussions among Fed officials over the past few days.

This includes a speech by Chairman Jerome Powell at the 2025 Economic Outlook Luncheon hosted by the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce in Warwick, Rhode Island, on Tuesday.

After the Federal Reserve announced its first interest rate cut in 2025 last week, markets will be looking for further hints from Powell regarding future policy actions. Risk assets, in particular, are hoping to see a more dovish tone from the Fed.

Latest data from the FedWatch tool provided by the CME Group indicates that expectations for another 0.25% interest rate cut at the Fed’s meeting on October 29 are quite high.

The probability of the target interest rate at the Fed’s FOMC meeting on October 29 is high, according to the report. Source: CME Group

However, Mosaic Asset Company warned in its latest newsletter, “Market Mosaic,” that such outcomes are not certain.

“The Fed’s latest predictions suggest that several more interest rate cuts will be made before the end of this year. But these predictions aren’t consistent at all,” the report reads.

“Out of the 19 officials who made these predictions, seven believe that further cuts are not necessary. The dual threats of rising inflation and weak labor market data have led to differing opinions among Fed officials.”

Fed officials’ assessments of interest rates. Source: Mosaic Asset Company

The stalemate between inflation and weak labor market data makes the number of people applying for unemployment benefits this week particularly important, especially for traders who are concerned about market fluctuations.

Bitcoin is expected to become a “major political story.”

Due to the decline in Bitcoin prices, rumors regarding significant political announcements in the United States this week that could affect Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have attracted much attention.

Some believe that this is a typical example of market speculation. After rumors of “major political news” began to spread on social media, the cryptocurrency market started to decline.

The exact content of this announcement is still unclear, but in an X post on Sunday, Dennis Porter, CEO and co-founder of the digital asset policy lobbying group Satoshi Fund, spoke frankly.

He claimed that this move will be implemented on Tuesday, and it will “reform the political landscape of Bitcoin.”

Source: Dennis Porter

Due to the initial discussions surrounding strategic Bitcoin reserves, as well as the resulting disappointment, the commitments made by American politicians in 2025 regarding cryptocurrencies have become sensitive. The idea of the U.S. government purchasing large amounts of BTC received considerable attention at first, but the policies announced by the Trump administration were never actually implemented.

However, as Cointelegraph continues to report, this idea has not been forgotten.

交易所 Galaxy Digital 公司研究主管 Alex Thorn 本月早些时候在 X 上写道：“我仍然认为美国政府很有可能在今年宣布成立战略比特币储备 (SBR)，并正式将 BTC 作为战略资产持有。”

索恩认为，市场“低估”了 SBR 成为现实的可能性。

据报道，上周，美国立法者会见了包括 Strategy 的 Michael Saylor 在内的加密市场高管， 讨论了 SBR。

利润数据暗示牛市顶部即将到来

从短期价格走势来看，新研究得出结论，市场目前处于“前兴奋”状态。

在其最新的 Quicktake 博客文章之一中，链上分析平台 CryptoQuant 报告了市场价值与实现价值 (MVRV) 指标所发出的关键信号。

MVRV 将比特币的市值与其上次变动时的供应量价值进行比较。由此得出的比率可以洞察市场在特定价格点是被高估还是低估。

CryptoQuant 使用了属于两个比特币投资者群体的货币的 MVRV 值之间的 30 天滚动差异：长期持有者 (LTH) 和短期持有者 (STH)。

LTH-MVRV 与 STH 的走势有所不同，反映出持有六个月或更长时间的代币的盈利能力正在增强。撰稿人 Crazzyblockk 称之为“兴奋前期”。

They stated, “Historically, this phase is often a direct precursor to parabolic price increases at the end of each major bull market cycle.”

The attached chart shows that this phenomenon occurs at every peak of the Bitcoin cycle.

Data on Bitcoin LTH and STH MVRV (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

It’s important to note that although the MVRV difference is showing an obvious upward trend, it hasn’t yet reached the extreme levels seen during past market peaks. This indicates that there is still significant upside potential, and the next peak is still ahead.

“The current market is reflecting this historical pattern. Since hitting a bottom in 2022, we have been in a healthy ‘euphoric pre-peak’ phase, which has laid a solid foundation for future significant moves,” the blog post continued.