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BTC Bernstein predicts that Bitcoin is expected to hit US$125,000 by the end of 2026, and Citibank raises its annual target.
Bernstein, a well-known Wall Street research firm, predicts that the price of Bitcoin may reach US$125,000 before the end of 2026, a potential increase of about 46% from the current price. The agency further predicts that with the deepening of institutional investor participation and the broadening of exchange-traded fund (ETF) channels, the structure of the digital asset market will undergo profound changes, and Bitcoin is expected to climb to US$150,000 by mid-2027.
Institutional demand and ETF inflows ignite market optimism
Bernstein pointed out that investment vehicles, including spot Bitcoin ETFs, have played a key role in changing the market landscape this year. In the third quarter, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of approximately US$6.34 billion, in sharp contrast to the net outflow of US$5 billion in the previous quarter and achieved a significant reversal.
This improved ETF demand coincides with the strong rebound in Bitcoin prices. After experiencing a low point in early 2026, Bitcoin's cumulative increase has exceeded 40%, greatly boosting the confidence of retail and institutional investors. Bernstein researchers said: "The increase in institutional positions and the convenience brought by ETFs are fundamentally changing the structure of the Bitcoin market, giving the asset more legitimacy and upward momentum."
Technical Signals and Recent Market Performance
In recent months, Bitcoin has shown a positive technical form, the most prominent feature being the formation of a "golden fork"-that is, the 50-day moving average crosses the 200-day moving average. Market analysts often view this phenomenon as a signal of increased long-term upward momentum.
Despite these bullish signals, Bitcoin's current price is still about one-third below the all-time high set in October 2025. On Tuesday, due to the strengthening of the US dollar and persistent inflation concerns, global risk assets came under pressure, and the price of Bitcoin fell to around US$85,300.
To achieve Bernstein's goal of US$125,000 by the end of 2026, Bitcoin will need to recover its record high in less than three months, a recovery that will be faster than the normal recovery cycle after a similar correction in history.
At the same time, Citigroup also raised its outlook for Bitcoin, raising its 12-month price target from $82,000 to $113,000. Citi attributed the adjustment to improving macroeconomic conditions, a recovery in cryptocurrency trading activity, and a trend of capital re-flowing into crypto-asset ETFs.
Short-term resistance and market challenges
Although the long-term outlook remains optimistic, Bitcoin has encountered significant resistance in the range of US$87,000 to US$87,500 in recent trading days. This price band serves as a ceiling, preventing it from launching further shocks to the $90,000 mark.
Even if ETF demand improves and U.S. employment data is moderate, this resistance area limits Bitcoin's ability to rebound in the near term. Bernstein believes that ETF-driven institutional participation is reshaping the market structure of Bitcoin and that if demand continues, there is still potential for further growth in the future.
Comparison of target prices of major institutions
Noun Explanation: Golden Cross
Golden Cross is a widely recognized form of technical analysis that refers to the short-term moving average (such as the 50-day moving average) crossing upwards the long-term moving average (such as the 200-day moving average). Traditionally, this has been seen as a signal that asset prices may gain upward momentum.
