XLM's rising potential: Can Stellar surpass XRP in the next 6 months?

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TLDR: In the second quarter of 2026, the scale of tokenized assets on Stellar exceeded the US$3 billion mark, having previously crossed the US$1 billion and US$2 billion milestones. According to SDF (Stellar Development Foundation) data, Stellar's stablecoin transfers reached a record of US$11.4 billion during the quarter. XLM's small market capitalization means that moderate inflows can trigger greater percentage price fluctuations than XRP. However, network growth does not necessarily lead to an increase in the price of XLM, because the value may not flow to native tokens. XLM's upside potential is being re-examined as a new analysis compares Stellar's performance with XRP over the next six months. The author points out that between October 2026 and April 2027, XLM is expected to outperform XRP.

Small market capitalization shapes XLM's upside potential

XRP's market capitalization is much larger than XLM. This gives XRP deeper liquidity, market depth and higher institutional attention. The analysis compares the two assets in three dimensions: positioning, market capitalization, and ecosystem: XRP is closely related to Ripple, XRPL, and RLUSD, while XLM is related to Stellar, Soroban, and real-world assets (RWAs).

However, larger asset sizes require more capital investment to produce the same percentage increase. Because XLM has a small base, moderate capital inflows could drive its price up significantly on a percentage level. This view was shared by Twitter user "Stellar XLM Holder". The author added that XLM does not need to reach a valuation level comparable to XRP; even if the gap between the two is only partially narrowed, it will be enough to increase XLM's upside potential.

XLM：在未来6个月内是否拥有比XRP更大的上行潜力？

尽管XRP已在支付和机构金融领域确立了自己作为最大且最受关注的加密货币之一的地位，但另一种数字资产或许能提供特别……pic.twitter.com/jHQ6EWsM0I— Stellar XLM Holder (@SylvianGuibal) 2026年10月6日

代币化资产与稳定币驱动Stellar增长

Stellar发展基金会（SDF）数据显示，2026年第二季度，Stellar网络上的代币化资产规模突破了30亿美元。今年早些时候，该网络已相继跨越10亿和20亿美元的里程碑。

同期，Stellar上的稳定币转账量也达到了创纪录的114亿美元。Stellar上的代币化资产可以代表债券、货币市场基金、黄金、私人信贷以及数字美元等。作者将这些描述为真实的金融应用场景，而非仅仅是理论上的支付网络。

分析认为，资产代币化已成为行业内主要的结构性叙事之一。Stellar正积极布局这一市场，作者将此趋势与XLM的上行潜力联系起来。

Soroban与机构兴趣支撑这一论点

Stellar还运营着Soroban，这是其智能合约平台。分析指出，Soroban使网络能够托管去中心化金融应用和机构用例。

The author said that combining fast payments, stablecoins, tokenization, smart contracts and compliance can broaden the valuation logic. The Stellar Development Foundation has pointed out that institutional initiatives are advancing against tokenized financial markets. Currently, the ecosystem is expanding in multiple areas such as stablecoins, money market funds, tokenized bonds, private credit and cross-border payments.

XRP still has an advantage on the institutional side. Ripple has expanded its European operations and payment infrastructure while developing the XRPL ecosystem and RLUSD. The author believes that this makes it interesting to compare it to XLM.

Scenarios and risks facing XLM's upside potential

This analysis outlines three scenarios from October 2026 to April 2027. The authors point out that the crypto market is driven by narrative, so catalysts may converge and trigger repricing. In weak markets, where capital is leaning towards Bitcoin and Ethereum, XRP may continue to maintain its advantage.

In a moderate recovery scenario, growth in real-world assets (RWAs) and stablecoins may allow XLM to outperform XRP. In a strong bull market phase, this gap may widen further due to XLM's low initial valuations. The author calls this "catch-up effect" the most speculative factor.

The authors note that network growth does not guarantee price growth. Blockchain can host more assets without the need for value to flow to its native tokens. Indicators worthy of attention include XLM demand, liquidity, stablecoin trading volume, developer activity, and institutional adoption rates. Under these conditions, XLM's upside potential depends on whether demand can truly be transmitted to the token itself.