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ZRO Analysts point out: The altcoin market has not yet started
Analyst Dennis Liu, who uses the "VirtualBacon" account on the X platform (formerly Twitter), said that the Altcoin Season has not yet begun. Since Bitcoin hit bottom, the average altcoin has increased by only about 10% relative to Bitcoin.
According to his observation, the market performance of a few strong currencies makes the overall atmosphere seem much hotter than the data reflects.
Most altcoins still lag behind Bitcoin
Liu's view is based on relative performance rather than individual high-profile surges. He pointed to the "Total 2-to-Bitcoin Ratio", which is used to compare the market value of cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin to Bitcoin, and described the chart as "very flat."
He pointed out that since the bottom of Bitcoin, the average altcoin has only risen 10% more than Bitcoin. This is a far cry from the overall outperformance that has been widespread in previous altcoin seasons.
The current list of leading performers is short. Zcash, one of Monero's predecessors, has performed well since the beginning of the year, while Venice and Quant have also outperformed the market recently. Among them, the privacy currency Zcash has increased by more than 726% in the past year, while Quant has soared from US$59 to US$370 in a few days (and then fell back to around US$255), an increase of 530%. However, Liu emphasized that these are only isolated cases.
Even XRP failed to outperform Bitcoin, and Ethereum, Solana and BNB were only slightly ahead. "That's why I say altcoins are actually still very cheap. We have not yet confirmed entering the full altcoin season scenario, we are just getting started." Liu explained.
When asked how far it is to the real altcoin season, the analyst replied: "Not far from it."
Bitcoin is consolidating
Bitcoin itself is currently in a state of stagnation. Bitcoin was rejected at the $87,000 mark on Monday, then rebounded at $85,000, and has since fluctuated sideways between $85,000 and $86,000. Its market value is US$1.72 trillion, accounting for nearly 58% of the entire crypto market.
Large altcoins have shown sluggish in the past 24 hours. Ethereum remained above $2,700, and XRP closed at $1.50. BNB, Solana, Dogecoin and Chainlink were slightly lower, with RAIN being one of the currencies with the biggest declines in 24 hours, falling more than 7%, while FIL and ZRO rose 8% and 10% respectively.
Why isolated markets are misleading
Liu also warned traders not to wait for Bitcoin to hit a new high before focusing on altcoins. He pointed out that this model worked in 2017 and late 2020, but failed in 2024-when Bitcoin broke previous records and many altcoins continued to bleed blood from Bitcoin. As a result, his strategy is to trade the rising prices of individual altcoins rather than wait for broad signals.
在另一段视频中，这位市场观察者将83,000美元称为比特币的每日枢轴点（Pivot）。如果跌破该点位，可能会使其走向牛市支撑位78,000美元；而如果坚守在该点位之上，则留有突破87,000美元的空间。
