Bitcoin faces critical test near $81,300

Bitcoin pulled back to around US$83,300, and key support levels are about to be tested.

On October 7, Bitcoin prices fell back to around US$83,300, erasing most of the gains in early October. The day before, Bitcoin briefly exceeded the $86,400 mark. The current market focus is on the key support level of US$81,300. If this position is lost, accompanied by outflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and recent loss-selling by investors, the situation will become truly worrying.

Summary of core market dynamics

• Bitcoin fell back to around $83,300 after breaking through $86,000.
• US$81,300 has become the main support level that needs to be closely observed at present.
• Large-scale liquidations increase selling pressure in the cryptocurrency market.
• The flow of funds in the U.S. Bitcoin ETF will be a key indicator to confirm or deny a bearish breakthrough.
• If it continues to fall below US$81,300, the Bitcoin price may drop further to US$77,000.

Prices fell significantly, and short power increased

During the trading day, Bitcoin fell to a low of approximately US$82,850, while the intraday high was close to US$85,800. This means Bitcoin has given up most of its monthly gains since early October (about $83,700). The decline was not limited to the spot market. The mandatory liquidation amount in the all-crypto market within 24 hours was nearly US$696 million, mainly concentrated in long positions. This wave of liquidation has exacerbated the downward trend triggered by the unfavorable macro environment.

Several technical indicators highlight current vulnerabilities:

• Bitcoin trading price is approximately US$83,300, a drop of nearly 3% during the day;
• immediate resistance/support range is between US$82,800 and US$83,400;
• Bitfinex analysts identified a breakthrough level of approximately US$81,300;
• The main clearing areas are concentrated between US$81,700 and US$83,300;
• If it can recover above US$84,350, it will provide an initial signal of stabilization.

Despite the severe short-term decline, some of the structures formed since September have not yet been completely destroyed. Notably, Bitcoin remains above several medium-term moving averages between $80,000 and $82,000.

Why is $81,300 important?

The US$81,000 to US$82,000 region corresponds to the starting point of the September bullish breakthrough and is also close to the average cost of holding positions for investors holding U.S. Bitcoin ETFs. If the price falls below US$82,600, some positions will face losses. The change could slow inflows and even prompt some recent investors to reduce exposure.

Bitfinex analysts distinguish between a normal pullback and a deep crash. They believe that between US$84,000 and US$81,300, Bitcoin will test the resistance level of previous September, which has now transformed into support. This scenario would delay the recovery but would not automatically negate the overall trend.

分析师估计：“如果持续跌破81,300美元，并伴随ETF资金流出以及短期持有者SOPR（已实现利润/损失比率）低于1，则表明近期买家正在放弃抵抗。”在这种情况下，77,000美元区域将重新进入视野。

SOPR用于衡量转移的比特币是盈利还是亏损出售。若该指标降至1以下，表明近期持有者平均开始以亏损价格出售资产。

十月反弹缺乏真实需求支撑

此前突破86,000美元的上涨建立在相对低成交量的基础之上。Glassnode估计，新增资本仅占比特币近期实现市值增量的不到五分之二。此外，持有者也利用价格突破85,000美元的机会获利了结，他们向交易平台存入的金额达到一年来的最高水平，从而增加了市场上的可售供应。

Glassnode研究主管Frederik Theissen指出：“现货平台和美国ETF的交易量仍然异常低迷。”因此，突破阻力位缺乏必要的支持，无法使比特币可持续地站稳86,000美元上方。

然而，期权市场情绪仍偏向中期看涨。交易者购买看涨期权（Call Options）的成本高于看跌保护工具。这种配置揭示了市场仍抱有积极预期，但这并不能保证立即反弹。

美国利率维持压力

The cryptocurrency market has also been affected by the rise in U.S. Treasury yields. Ten-year U.S. bond yields hover around 5.28%, Brent crude oil prices exceed US$100, and the U.S. dollar index rose to its highest level since April 2025. These trends have made risky assets less attractive. High bond yields raise the cost of capital, while expensive oil prices fuel inflation concerns and limit the Fed's room for maneuver.

Currently, Bitcoin prices must recover the US$84,350 to US$85,000 range to ease selling pressure. On the contrary, if it continues to close below US$81,300, accompanied by ETF outflows and loss selling, the risk of falling back to US$77,000 will be opened. A single technical level is no longer enough to judge the trend: the flow of institutional funds will be a key verification factor in confirming or denying the failure of the breakthrough.