Ethereum researchers warn that AI-driven mathematical breakthroughs may threaten the encryption system in advance, recommending launching "refuge mode"
Ethereum researcher Justin Drake points out that mathematical advances driven by artificial intelligence may pose risks to existing encryption systems earlier than expected. He called on the cryptocurrency industry to start planning a defense mechanism known as the "refuge model."
Institutional Investor Response Strategies
Drake said that large and institutional investors should particularly consider transferring assets in a controlled manner to new addresses that do not yet display public keys on the chain. He pointed out that these addresses should not have had any transactions signed before; if a transaction has been signed at an address, it may be safer to move the remaining assets to a completely new address.
However, Drake emphasized that investors need not panic or act in a hurry. He described this transfer of assets to an undisclosed public key address as a simple and preventive step that can be easily accomplished using existing wallet infrastructure.
ECDSA faces potential threats
According to the Ethereum researcher, the industry should now seriously consider the possibility that the widely used Elliptic Curve-based Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) could be breached before the much-anticipated quantum computing hack event (known as "Q-Day") arrives.
Drake speculates that in the worst case scenario, with current hardware, the ECDSA private key could become hackable within months. His definition of "hacking" includes obtaining a private key in about a week using currently available hardware, such as a large GPU cluster.
Risks of AI accelerating mathematical discovery
In his statement, Drake also focused on some of the latest developments in the field of mathematics. He pointed out that some mathematical assumptions long believed to be correct have recently been overturned, and believes that artificial intelligence systems can significantly speed up the process of mathematical discovery.
"People often say that what has happened in decades may happen in a few weeks. We may be entering a period where centuries of mathematical progress will be completed in just a few weeks."
Drake believes that elliptic curve cryptography may be more vulnerable to attacks by advanced artificial intelligence systems due to its structural characteristics. He also reminded us that hash functions are designed to contain as few algebraic structures as possible.
The researcher also pointed out that efficient algorithms developed for quantum computers would in some cases later inspire algorithms running on classic computers. As a result, he argued that in theory new methods could emerge that would allow classical computers to use elliptic curve cryptography to crack RSA, similar to the role of Shor's algorithm.
Industry defense advice
Drake said large cryptocurrency companies and institutional custody services should play a leadership role in defense. He pointed out that companies like Binance, Bitbank, Robinhood, Bitfinex and Tether could strengthen their cold wallet structures, and specifically emphasized the need to monitor Bitcoin addresses whose public keys are already visible on the blockchain.
In contrast, according to Drake, small Bitcoin investors may have relatively more time in some circumstances. The researcher suggested that thousands of open addresses (believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto, each containing about 50 BTC) could become primary targets for potential attackers, which he called "Satoshi's Shield."
For critical infrastructures that require continuous signing of transactions, such as Oracle Systems and the Layer 2 Cyber Security Committee, Drake recommends regularly exchanging their ECDSA public keys and leveraging hash-based signature systems such as SPHINCS to create an additional layer of security.
Towards the era of "post-AI cryptography"
Drake believes that in the long run, the cryptocurrency industry needs to prepare for the "post-AI cryptography" era. He said he preferred hash function-based cryptography and advocated avoiding systems based on structured mathematical assumptions, such as elliptic curves, lattice based systems, or homologous mapping systems, whenever possible.
Drake pointed out that Ethereum's roadmap already includes a transition to hash-based cryptography and end-to-end formal verification to deal with quantum computing threats, but said recent AI developments require a reassessment and acceleration of current schedules.

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