The Bitcoin price crash is not over yet, but Washington has cleared another obstacle to the CLARITY

Bitcoin prices encounter resistance near US$82,000, and good news for the crypto industry from Washington

Bitcoin has encountered resistance near US$82,000 in the latest wave of rebound and is currently in a correction, which once again provides the argument for bears that a market bottom in 2026 may not be established. At the same time, Washington has potentially positive news for the crypto industry: On the eve of a key Senate vote on September 15, the CLARITY Act lost support from a large organized opposition.

Bitcoin's rejection reaction around $82,000 is particularly important because the area has become one of the biggest technical obstacles in the market. Reuters recently pointed out that around US$82,793 is the main resistance level, with multiple long-term technical levels converging nearby.

CryptoCon, an analyst we follow regularly, does not believe that the strong Bitcoin rally in August marks the beginning of a new bull market. His latest Fisher Transform chart shows that Bitcoin has not yet produced the technical breakthrough he had hoped for. In fact, although Bitcoin has rebounded significantly from its 2026 lows, the analyst remains convinced that there are still unfinished business in the bear market.

Bitcoin encounters rejection after sprinting towards US$82,000

As September entered, the bulls regained firm control of the situation, after a bitcoin gain of about 25% in August. The rally erased most of the declines earlier in the year and pushed Bitcoin back into the $81,000 to $83,000 range. However, breaking through this area proved quite difficult.

CryptoCon described bullish confidence reaching a peak as Bitcoin approached $82,000, but the cryptocurrency was then "heavily suppressed" and fell below resistance. This rejection response is important not only because the price itself faces resistance, but other parts of his analysis encounter similar obstacles.

Its Fisher Transform indicator also showed signs of obstruction.

CryptoCon says Bitcoin has not confirmed bull market

CryptoCon's chart tracks Fisher Transform indicators for multiple Bitcoin market cycles since 2010. The analyst did not focus solely on Bitcoin's dollar price, but used the indicator to identify significant changes in long-term market conditions. One of the most interesting features is the repeated formation of a downward structure in a bear market.

Source: X/@CryptoCon_CryptoCon draws a downwardly sloping resistance line between consecutive Fisher Transform peaks. Eventually, the indicator will break through this resistance, and historically these breakthroughs have often occurred early in major bullish cycles. The chart points to key turning points before March 2015, March 2019, and January 2023, all of which occurred at the end of the major Bitcoin bear market.

According to CryptoCon, the current cycle has not yet produced an equivalent confirmation signal. The Fisher transform has rebounded significantly, but is currently testing the upper boundary of another descending structure. CryptoCon clearly marked its recent attempt as a "no breakthrough." This is why he is reluctant to call Bitcoin's recent trend the beginning of a new bull market.

Fisher transform at critical level

The current situation creates a relatively straightforward test scenario. If the Fisher Transform decisively breaks through its downward resistance line, CryptoCon will finally gain an indicator similar to the signals seen in the early stages of the previous Bitcoin bull market. Until then, he believed the existing structure was still part of a bear market.

The chart also explains why the recent $82,000 rejection reaction caught his attention. Bitcoin has achieved a major recovery, but the indicators supporting this recovery have reached the area that requires confirmation almost accurately.

This does not prove that Bitcoin is about to face another collapse. Technical indicators may fail, and today's Bitcoin market structure is very different from previous cycles. Spot ETFs, institutional ownership and corporate Bitcoin positions have all changed the composition of demand. Nonetheless, CryptoCon believes that historical patterns remain relevant as long as the market fails to explicitly break the pattern.

CryptoCon still expects bitcoin to bottom out later this year

This isn't the only data leading CryptoCon to the same conclusion. The analyst has repeatedly argued that Bitcoin's normal cycle times suggest that the ultimate bear market bottom could occur between November 2026 and January 2027. His analysis of previous cycles found that Bitcoin's past three complete bear markets lasted about 417 days, 372 days and 384 days, respectively, averaging about 391 days. His model recently pointed out that the current bear market has reached about 84% of that historical average.

CryptoCon acknowledges that there are legitimate reasons to believe that a bottom may have arrived. Several indicators have entered historical bottoming areas, with Bitcoin showing bullish divergences, and the strength of its rebound in August is difficult to ignore. But he did not change his basic assumption. He still believes another low could emerge before the bear market is completely over.

In his latest comment, CryptoCon points to three factors that support this belief: regular cycle time, long-term cycle bottom data that he believes is not yet fully completed, and market psychology. The Fisher transformation now adds another piece of the puzzle to this argument.

Washington has just brought better news for the crypto industry

Although the technical aspects of Bitcoin remain controversial, Washington's regulatory environment has improved. The National Sheriffs Association (NSA) has shifted from opposition to the CLARITY Act to neutrality, eliminating another major source of resistance ahead of the Senate vote expected on September 15.

This does not mean that the organization now supports the bill. This difference is important. In a July 31 letter, the NSA strongly criticized the legislation, raising concerns about law enforcement, illegal finance and protection for unmanaged software developers. Its new stance is much less confrontational.

The National Sheriffs Association was the last major police organization to change its stance, from opposition to neutrality. But this shift is worth noting. Compare the wording in this letter with the letter it sent on July 31... pic.twitter.com/BJMNDa1t3a-Eleanor Terrett (@EleanorTerrett) September 4, 2026

The group said it would take a step back and let the legislative process continue given the complexity and pending details of the legislation. For the crypto industry, turning a major law enforcement organization from actively opposing to neutral removes a major hurdle-even if it does not guarantee a Senate vote.

Why law enforcement is fighting parts of the CLARITY Act

One of the biggest differences around the protection of unmanaged cryptographic software developers. Critics of law enforcement argue that the proposed protections could make it more difficult to pursue developers who know their software is being used to divert illegal funds.

The crypto industry takes a very different stance. The argument is basically that developers who create decentralized software but never take over user assets should not automatically be regulated or prosecuted as money carriers. This disagreement remains unresolved.

Unless these protections are narrowed, the National Association of District Prosecutors and the National Association of Assistant U.S. Prosecutors are expected to remain opposed to the current plan. However, based on information surrounding the negotiations, the White House, Treasury Department, congressional supporters and crypto industry representatives have resisted changes to these requirements. Senator Catherine Cortez Masto has previously agreed with prosecutors 'concerns and has not publicly reversed that position. As a result, there are still political obstacles ahead of the CLARITY Act.

September 15 may be an important date for the crypto industry

This development of the National Sheriff's Association is important largely because of timing. A Senate procedural vote is expected on September 15, requiring 60 votes to advance legislation. Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, which means Democrats need support.

The NSA's shift to neutrality may have eliminated an argument used by uncertain senators against advancing legislation. But this does not guarantee adoption. Other differences remain, including issues involving crypto-related conflicts of interest among government officials. Semafor reported that these issues remain unresolved. Therefore, the next ten days may become a critical period in determining whether lawmakers can form a coalition to advance legislation.

Is the Bitcoin Price Crash Really Not Over?

Our view is that the CryptoCon chart is worth paying attention to, but it does not confirm the inevitability of Bitcoin having to hit another low. The Fisher transformation model of history is very convincing. Similar breakthroughs have occurred near previous major market turning points, and current indicators have not yet sent the same signal. But lack of confirmation is different from confirmation of another crash.

Bitcoin bulls have a relatively clear way to challenge the bearish argument: BTC needs to break through the main resistance zone of $82,000 to $83,000 and maintain the recovery momentum while CryptoCon's Fisher Transform breaks out of its downward structure. Until then, his bear market scenario still holds. This makes September particularly interesting.