尽管有2.1亿枚APT锁定计划，Aptos价格仍面临供应增加的压力

Aptos基金会承诺永久质押2.1亿枚APT，解锁潮尾声与通胀压力并存

Aptos基金会近期再次成为市场焦点，其宣布将2.1亿枚APT代币进行永久质押。与此同时，针对早期投资者和核心贡献者的代币解锁计划将于本月结束。官方数据显示，尽管有此举，APT的总供应量仍在持续扩张。在10月8日买家捍卫200周期指数移动平均线（EMA）后，APT价格维持在0.80美元附近。

永久质押计划与代币经济学改革

Aptos基金会提出的永久质押2.1亿枚APT的计划，正值该网络早期投资者和核心贡献者的四年解锁期于2026年10月接近尾声之际。这一承诺源于2月18日发布的治理提案AIP-140中的七项代币经济学改革措施之一。该提案旨在削减代币排放、提高手续费销毁量，并最终推动APT进入通缩通道。然而，目前这一目标尚未实现。

根据10月8日更新的网络供应仪表盘数据，每月新增的APT数量比销毁的数量多出约140万枚。这意味着尽管有永久质押的承诺，但净供应量仍在增加。

• 永久质押规模： 2.1亿枚APT，约占流通量的18%，占基金会主网分配额的37%。
• 当前年化质押奖励率： 2.6%。
• 当前价值： 按当前价格计算，这笔质押资产价值接近1.68亿美元。

值得注意的是，这些代币并未被销毁，而是继续处于质押状态并产生收益。基金会承诺永不出售或分发本金，并将此效果描述为“经济上等同于销毁”，因为潜在的巨大抛压来源已消失。基金会计划利用质押产生的收益来资助运营。在2.6%的奖励率下，这笔质押每年将在扣除验证者佣金前产生约546万枚APT，而这些奖励仍可能流入市场。

AIP-140机制执行情况与供需平衡挑战

AIP-140提案包含七项措施，除了永久质押外，还包括将质押奖励从5.19%降至2.6%，设定21亿枚APT的供应上限，将燃气费提高十倍以加速销毁，将未来拨款与里程碑挂钩，以及为代币回购打开大门。此外，提案还寄希望于由Aptos Labs孵化的永续合约交易所Decibel，预计其每年能销毁超过3200万枚APT。

虽然AIP-140已被标记为“已通过”，但这并不意味着所有机制都已生效。供应仪表盘已反映出奖励率的降低和21亿枚的最大供应上限，但十倍的费用增长在销毁数据中尚不明显，回购仍处于探索阶段，而Decibel的销毁量仅为基于交易量的预测。

销毁量需大幅增长才能抵消质押排放：

The supply of APT is affected by two main traffic: verifiers and principals receive newly minted tokens as pledge rewards, and the network destroys transaction fees paid by users. Supply shrinks only when the second traffic (destruction) exceeds the first traffic (issuance).

• Monthly APT circulation: About 1.5 million (As a new pledge reward)
• Transaction fee destruction volume: About 170,000 pieces
• Net new supply: About 1.4 million pieces per month

Based on rounded data from the official Aptos supply dashboard as of October 8, 2026, although Aptos has halved the reward rate, the destruction amount is still small. Since the launch of the main network in October 2022, the dashboard shows that approximately 1.9 million APTs have been destroyed, with an annualized destruction rate of nearly 2 million. A net circulation of 1.4 million pieces per month is equivalent to 16.8 million pieces per year, so destruction needs to increase by about ninefold to fill this gap.

This is where fee increases and Decibel exchanges come into play. The tenfold increase in gas bills will be multiplied by the amount destroyed per transaction, and the foundation expects Decibel to destroy more than 32 million APTs each year once it launches more than 100 markets. This is a prediction. According to DeFiLlama data, Decibel's cumulative transaction volume since its launch in February has reached approximately US$7.8 billion.

Insider unlocking is completed, supply pressure is relieved

Aptos launched with 1 billion APTs and distributed them to communities, foundations, core contributors and investors. As the insider vesting program ends this month, the foundation expects annual unlocks to fall by approximately 60%, and predicts that its allocation of grants will fall by more than 50% between 2026 and 2027.

As a result, two sources of supply are shrinking: the number of previously locked coins that have become available for sale is decreasing, and the number of newly minted coins is also decreasing. While this does not guarantee a price increase, it removes the pressure that has suppressed APT prices since its launch.

Technical Analysis: Buying Defends Key Support Levels

As of October 9, at the time of writing, APT was trading at $0.8024 on Binance, with a market value of approximately $702 million. The price is almost exactly at $0.8029, the first Fibonacci retracement level to rebound from $0.5249 to $0.8888 in late September. For the next two weeks, prices fluctuated sideways below highs. The September rally completed a triple bottom pattern on the daily chart, with the bottom building above three lows between $0.51 and $0.52.

On October 8, sellers pushed APT below US$0.7498, hitting the 200-cycle moving average of US$0.7389, and hitting a low of approximately US$0.69. However, no 4-hour K-line closed below the 200 EMA zone. The rebound was accompanied by the largest volume since the September 18 - 19 breakout and pulled prices back above the 20 EMA (US$0.7834) and 50 EMA (US$0.7906) in a single trading day, a sequence that usually means buying absorbed downtrend momentum.

Key price analysis:

• Resistance: September high of US$0.8888; lower high of 0.85 to US$0.86.
• Current price: is at the 0.236 Fibonacci level of US$0.8024.
• Support levels: 20 and 50 EMA, US$0.78 to US$0.79;200 EMA and 0.382 levels, US$0.74 to US$0.75.
• Expiration conditions: A 4-hour close below US$0.69 will expose downside of US$0.6639.

Every rally since September 26 has been blocked at a lower level: $0.888 first, then about $0.86 on October 6, and then about $0.85 this morning. Around October 7, the 20 EMA fell below the 50 EMA, the first crossing since the rally began, although the gap was small enough to be reversed if a few sessions were run above $0.80. The MACD line (-0.0029) is already higher than the signal line (-0.0092), indicating reduced selling pressure, but both are below the zero-axis and the broader adjustment has not yet ended.

If the 4-hour close stands firm above US$0.8029, US$0.85 to US$0.86 will come back into view, and above the US$0.8888 high, the next Fibonacci extension is around US$0.988. If it fails, the price will fall back to $0.78 to $0.79. Below this position you will face a second test on the 200 EMA, and a second test on the level that has just been punctured is often less reliable than the first.

Conclusion: On-chain confirmation remains to be seen

The materials released by the foundation established a commitment to permanently pledge 210 million APTs, but did not show that these tokens were in an enforceable lock-up state, nor did the foundation publish addresses or contracts that allowed external observers to confirm. The next key indicator to focus on is an update to the monthly supply dashboard, which will show whether destruction is beginning to narrow the gap between pledged emissions and destruction.