Circle shares fall on U.S. jobs data: Can the $81 target be achieved?

Circle shares fell to US$80.19 due to lower-than-expected U.S. jobless claims data and fluctuations in the crypto market.

Circle (CRCL) shares fell 0.80% to US$80.19 in intraday trading on Thursday. The previously announced number of initial jobless claims in the United States was lower than market expectations, combined with weaker cryptocurrency prices, causing CRCL's share price to fall below the US$81 mark.

Review of key market dynamics

During the October 8 trading session, CRCL shares fell US$0.64, failing to break through the resistance level of US$80.84. Data from the U.S. Department of Labor showed that in the week ending October 3, the number of initial jobless claims was 197,000, lower than the expected 200,000 and lower than the revised figure of the previous week.

At the same time, the cryptocurrency market performed weakly. According to CoinGlass data, the price of Bitcoin hovers around US$82,700, and the amount of open positions in the cryptocurrency market exceeded US$400 million in the past 24 hours. Circle's partnership with Tereina will integrate USDC and EURC payment capabilities into existing SAP enterprise workflows.

Technical Analysis and Market Pressure

reported that CRCL's current resistance is at US$80.84, followed by US$81.30 to US$81.40. To achieve a rebound, stock prices first need to break through near resistance. Lower support is around $79.11, with $79 seen as another key threshold. Analysts believe that if the stock price encounters a rejection at the resistance level, it may face further downside risks; and if it breaks through the resistance level, it may be a sign of recovery.

Earlier on Thursday morning, Stocktwits reported that stocks such as Circle, Coinbase, Strategy and Bitmine Immersion Technologies were under pressure in pre-market trading as Bitcoin fell below $83,000. In addition, there are reports that the White House has asked to consider a military strike option against Iran, causing oil prices to rise and U.S. bond yields to recent highs. The weakness of CryptoShares is closely related to this market reaction.

Employment data details: Initial claims fell but renewed claims rose

In labor data released on Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor revised the number of initial jobless claims for the previous week from 197,000 to 199,000. The revision reduced the latest total by 2,000 people from the previous week. The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims fell by 2,500 to 198,000, the lowest level since early October 2022, an indicator that helped reduce the volatility of weekly data.

However, the number of people who continue to apply for unemployment benefits has shown the opposite trend. In the week ended September 26, the number of people already receiving benefits applied increased by 17,000 to 1.716 million. Heather Long, chief economist at the Navy Federal Credit Union, described the current employment situation as a market with "low hiring, low firing." In addition, the report showed that non-farm payrolls increased by 29,000 in September, compared with 133,000 in August.

Circle Financial Performance and Strategic Cooperation

利率与公司财务状况之间的联系在Circle的财报披露中得以体现。在第二季度业绩中，公司表示储备资产收益率的降低抵消了部分USDC流通量增长带来的好处。此前报道显示，Circle已与Coinbase续签协议至2029年。根据协议，Coinbase主要获得来自支持USDC的资产收入。季度末，Coinbase持有平台内30%的USDC流通量。Circle本季度收入和储备收益达7.01亿美元，同比增长7%，USDC流通量达到733亿美元。

在业务拓展方面，Circle于10月7日宣布与SAP支持的Tereina达成合作，率先从SAP Cloud ERP开始。符合条件的企业将能够在其财务团队日常使用的应用程序中获得稳定币支付功能。根据公告，USDC将成为符合条件的美元计价工作流的首选稳定币，而EURC则为欧元支付提供选项。

Circle首席执行官Jeremy Allaire表示，稳定币是“全球商业的核心基础设施层”。他称，此次与Tereina的集成将使数字货币更容易融入日常业务运营。通过SAP Pay，该集成旨在服务于占全球商业84%的企业生态系统客户，允许参与公司在不替换现有操作系统的情况下发送和接收稳定币。

For U.S. corporate customers, SAP's product documentation states that unless otherwise stated, cloud services can process transactions for customers or their affiliates located in the U.S. or European Union. SAP said the service supports ACH, wire transfers, money orders, checks and USDC payments through a single connection, covering more than 40 currencies and 89 payment corridors. In the same workflow, payments will be reconciled against the original invoice or purchase order, the company retains control over the timing, currency and method of payment, and the pre-integrated Circle Mint account supports USDC payments.

In addition, Bernstein linked Circle's investment case to stablecin payments, tokenized assets and blockchain-based capital markets in a research report on August 24, maintaining the "outperform" rating, and estimated that the annualized stablecin trading activity as of July reached US$17 trillion. In the coming months, Circle and Tereina plan to conduct customer value verification projects, train finance and payment experts, and work with ecosystem partners to advance enterprise-level stablecoin implementation.