Bitcoin returns to $81000, Trump rules out a strike on Iran before mid-term elections

Bitcoin returns to the US$81,000 mark: Trump ruled out an Iranian military strike, and oil prices fell accordingly.

As U.S. President Donald Trump made it clear before the mid-term elections on November 3 that he would not attack Iran, the price of Bitcoin has regained its footing above US$81,000; at the same time, influenced by his remarks, international oil prices have rebounded.

Market rebound and geopolitical easing signals

According to reports cited by TradingView data, Bitcoin quickly regained its lost ground and rebounded to above $81,000 after Trump issued a statement. The October 8 market report released by PrimeXBT also documented the recovery and noted that oil prices fell back due to the president's speech.

PrimeXBT described a volatile trading session in the report: Bitcoin fell below the $81,000 mark for the first time since September 21. Data showed that within an hour, more than $480 million in crypto asset positions were liquidated, with most of the losses coming from long positions.

Previous reports have shown that the pressure caused by the conflict has interrupted Bitcoin's recovery in September. On September 28, the cryptocurrency news website reported that Bitcoin had pulled back to below $84,000 after breaking through $87,000 last week, and new uncertainty about the situation in Iran has suppressed the overall market.

Trump statement: Maintain blockade but rule out short-term attacks

In an article posted on the Truth Social platform on October 8, Donald Trump said Washington was having fruitful discussions with Tehran and promised not to launch an attack on Iran before the U.S. vote day on November 3. At the same time, he reiterated that the U.S. economic and military blockade against Iran will continue, and stressed that Iran must not obtain nuclear weapons.

According to a statement reprinted by Ynetnews, Trump described the diplomatic contact as a "fruitful discussion." He claimed that 22 million barrels of oil had passed through the Strait of Hormuz the previous night, but not a drop of oil had entered or left Iran. He called the figure a record number and said the lockdown would remain fully in effect.

However, there have been previous reports that the military is preparing a plan to restart the strike. Ynetnews quoted Axios as saying that the U.S. Central Command had received instructions several days ago to complete preparations for a possible resumption of large-scale combat operations, but Trump has not yet made a final decision and has not set a specific date.

NBC News also reported that Trump and his national security team discussed the possibility of a large-scale operation in the coming weeks. The publication also quoted the Atlantic Monthly as saying that the Pentagon had been asked to develop a possible pre-election strike plan. According to The Atlantic Monthly, officials are still considering the scale of the operation and that a more significant military operation could take place after the vote. The reports mainly described preparations and internal discussions rather than approved attack plans.

Historical Review: The Impact of Conflict on Currency Markets and U.S. Stocks

The impact of the conflict on crude oil and U.S. financial markets was recorded in the September 1 market report. After the United States launched a new round of attacks on Iranian targets, Bitcoin fell below the $78,000 and $77,000 barriers, trading at approximately $76,762, down sharply from the intraday high of $79,166. According to CoinGlass data, about $115 million in leveraged long positions were cleared within an hour, and Ethereum also fell below $2,400.

Reuters data showed that Brent crude oil settled 4.6% to US$94.65 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate Oil (WTI) rose 5.2% to US$90.22 a barrel. The report also recorded a rise in government bond yields and the S & P 500 falling to its lowest level since August 4.

The exposure of U.S. investors is also reflected in U.S. -listed Bitcoin funds. Farside Investors data showed that during the period from September 21 to 25, the net inflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs was US$2.39 billion, with positive inflows recorded per trading day, of which BlackRock's IBIT products accounted for approximately US$1.16 billion.

Another market report on August 31 showed that Bitcoin remained at around US$77,900 despite the escalating fighting and rising crude oil prices. At that time, BTC was up by about 23% in August, while gold and Nasdaq were up by 9% and 4% monthly, respectively. The same report pointed out that the cumulative inflow of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF was approximately US$2.8 billion in eight consecutive trading days; but then Farside data showed that a net outflow of approximately US$201.9 million occurred on August 28.

Iran's response: reply expected within a few days

After Trump's statement, Polymarket traders gave a 60% probability that the U.S. -Iran ceasefire will last until November 15. PrimeXBT's October 8 coverage also recorded a 60% probability that the ceasefire will last until mid-November.

At the diplomatic level, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghzi said Tehran had submitted a seven-day plan and received a response from Washington. Antiwar.com quoted WANA as saying that Iran is reviewing the U.S. response and expects to respond in the next few days. He also warned that if Washington takes military action, Tehran will be more prepared than in the past and will take measures to defend itself.