Cryptocurrency: Despite concerns about artificial intelligence, Arthur Hayes predicts a massive bull

Arthur Hayes remains highly optimistic about cryptocurrencies

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes firmly believes that current concerns surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) and cryptographic security are not enough to prevent the arrival of a new major cycle. His core logic is based on a key element that he has been closely following for years: liquidity. Bitcoin and other crypto assets are expected to benefit if governments print money on a large scale again to support their economies.

AI-induced fears are only temporary obstacles

Despite the growing anxiety related to AI, Arthur Hayes, Maelstrom's chief investment officer, did not express particular concerns. He believes that doubts about AI and encryption technology are just the last round of panic that the crypto market must experience before it may usher in a major bull market. This view is consistent with his recent theory of a "tsunami" of dollar liquidity.

In a message released on October 8, Hayes compared the current situation with several difficult times Bitcoin has experienced. He specifically mentioned the block-size battle in 2017, the COVID-19 epidemic and the FTX crash that accompanied a sharp rise in interest rates. Every time a crisis occurs, the crypto market must absorb new sources of uncertainty. Hayes now classifies AI-related fears into the same category, known as "FUD"(Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt).

Of course, this comparison also has limitations. Security issues related to AI are not entirely false. Systems that leverage artificial intelligence can already help researchers analyze code, spot errors, or accelerate certain mathematical research. However, this does not mean that the bitcoin or mainstream encryption algorithms currently in use have been cracked by AI. Yehuda Lindell, director of cryptography at Coinbase, clearly refuted the idea that the current encryption system was about to be breached. He pointed out that there is currently no evidence that AI has successfully broken through the basic mathematical assumptions on which these protections rely.

Liquidity remains the real engine driving the crypto bull market

For Arthur Hayes, his reasoning almost always returns to the same core point: the availability of money in the financial system. His bullish scenario does not rely mainly on technical improvements in Bitcoin, the emergence of new memin, or factors related to the halving cycle. He is concerned about the US dollar.

Hayes believes that when financing costs become too heavy, governments and central banks will be forced to support markets. By then, more money and credit may flow to risky assets, and Bitcoin will naturally be among them. In August, Hayes linked an increase in U.S. Treasury buybacks to better liquidity conditions. Repurchase allows the Ministry of Finance to repurchase some of the bonds that are already in circulation, and notably aims to improve the efficiency of market operations.

在 Hayes 看来，这一机制有助于缓解金融状况，并间接利好比特币。这并不是他的新立场。早在三月，他就曾表示，在没有更明确的流动性回归信号之前，他不会立即押注比特币。几个月后，他的言论变得更加激进。他现在认为，经济的融资需求，特别是与人工智能相关的融资需求，可能会创造出推动加密市场强劲上涨所需的货币条件。

他本周发表的声明很好地概括了他的思路：货币将被创造出来，资产最终会上涨。当然，这一机制并非自动生效。增加流动性并不能保证资金最终会流入比特币或山寨币。资金可能仍留在银行体系内，用于资助企业、购买债券或进入股市。Hayes 仅仅是赌注其中一部分资金最终会流向加密市场。

AI 危机 paradoxically 可能利好加密市场

当 Hayes 谈到人工智能热潮时，其推理显得更加出人意料。科技公司目前正在芯片、数据中心、电力和基础设施方面投入巨额资金。这些投资的一部分依赖于信贷。Hayes 认为，问题可能在 2027 年或 2028 年左右出现。

If AI infrastructure does not generate enough revenue to cover accumulated financial commitments, some companies or lenders may come under pressure. His scenario even envisions trillions of dollars in support measures. It is at this point that he becomes optimistic again about the crypto market. AI-related financial crises can force authorities to step in: provide guarantees, purchase assets, public credit or create money. The greater the intervention, the more likely Hayes believes it is that Bitcoin will benefit from the devaluation of traditional currencies.

This is a scenario, not a deterministic conclusion. First, it assumes that the current AI boom ultimately ends in failure; second, it assumes that the government responds with a large amount of liquidity; and finally, this amount of money is needed to find a way to the crypto market. There are many steps.

At the same time, AI and blockchain are also directly integrating. Decentralized computing, autonomous agents, and machine-to-machine payments are spawning new projects that combine AI and encryption. However, Arthur Hayes was mainly focused on the other side of the phenomenon. In his view, even if AI ultimately causes financial difficulties, its solution could be extremely beneficial to Bitcoin. It's a fairly simple paradox: The next major crypto bull market could be driven by financial problems caused by technologies that worry markets today.