ETH质押拐点已现，投资者如何布局2026?

随着2025年步入尾声，以太坊网络迎来了关键转折：验证者“进入队列”的资金量首次超过“退出队列”，标志着市场对质押ETH的兴趣回暖。经过数月的价格波动和抛售压力，这一变化不仅反映了网络基本面的改善，也显示出机构信心正在逐步回归。结合Pectra升级优化、DeFi杠杆出清等因素，以太坊正迈入一个安全性增强、资本积累的新周期，为2026年的应用扩张和网络稳健奠定基础。

以太坊验证者队列的反转

根据Ethereum Validator Queue的最新数据，当前约739,824 ETH排队等待进入网络，预计等待时长12天20小时;退出队列仅349,867 ETH，清空需6天左右。

此外，当前以太坊总质押量约为3550万ETH，占总供应量的29.27%，活跃验证者数量已达98.36万。

什么是验证者队列?为什么它很重要?

在以太坊权益证明(PoS)机制下，为了保障共识的稳定性，协议规定节点不能随进随出，而是通过「流量控制(Churn Limit)」机制来调节。

目前，每个epoch(约6分24秒)可加入(激活)或退出的验证者数量设定的上限为256 ETH，相当于每天约57,600 ETH的处理能力。

● 进入队列(Entry Queue)：Pledgeing 32 ETH to apply to become a verifier. An increasing queue indicates strong demand for such pledges, suggesting that long-term returns on the investment are promising.

● Exit Queue: – The queue for withdrawing funds. An increase in the queue usually indicates selling pressure, liquidity demand, or deleveraging efforts.

Therefore, the verifier queue is not only an indicator of network health but also a barometer of market sentiment.

How will the verifier queue evolve in 2025?

Throughout 2025, the Ethereum verifier queue experienced significant fluctuations:

● First half to autumn: The exit queue reached record highs several times, mainly due to institutional rotation, profit-taking, deleveraging in DeFi sectors (e.g., Aave’s lending rates soaring, leading to liquidation of stETH cycles), as well as individual security incidents (e.g., Kiln withdrew all its Ethereum verifier nodes in September).

● Mid-September: The exit queue peaked at 2.67 million ETH, with waiting times reaching up to 46 days.

● September–October: There was a brief surge in new entries into the queue, but later it was dominated by those exiting the queue.

● November: New entries into the queue increased again, reaching over 1.5 million ETH, while those exiting the queue reached over 2.5 million ETH.

● End of December: The pattern changed: currently, approximately 739,824 ETH are waiting to join the network, while only 349,867 ETH are leaving the queue.

The four main drivers behind this change in December

This reversal is not a coincidence, but rather the result of the combined effects of capital, technology, and the macro-environment.

Companies like BitMine have placed large amounts of tokens as collateral.

On the day before this reversal occurred, from December 25th to 27th, BitMine accumulated a total of 342,560 ETH in collateral (approximately $1 billion), which directly contributed to the reversal of the queue structure.

Not only that, BitMine has also announced that it plans to launch a specialized collateral infrastructure called MAVAN in the first quarter of 2026. This shows its commitment to developing an ecosystem for Ethereum collateralization over the long term.

At the same time, another leading cryptocurrency wallet company, SharpLink, has pledged nearly 100% of its ETH as collateral, further boosting the flow of funds into the ecosystem.

Although the crypto wallet industry currently faces significant challenges, with some institutions slowing down their efforts to increase their ETH holdings, and even cases of selling off ETH investments like ETHZilla, the bold initiatives taken by companies like BitMine and SharpLink have still helped stabilize the foundation of the Ethereum collateralization ecosystem.

Pectra’s upgrade improves the collateralization experience.

The Pectra upgrade implemented in May 2025 introduced several key improvements through EIP-7251: the maximum valid validator balance was increased from 32 ETH to 2048 ETH, and features like compound rewards and validator integration were enabled. This reduces the operational costs associated with managing thousands of validator nodes, providing technical advantages for larger investors.

Kiln’s re-collateralization is now available.

After the security incidents in September 2025, Kiln withdrew from the verification node category on a large scale. It’s unclear when Kiln resumed providing staking services again. However, according to data from Beaconcha.in, Kiln currently accounts for 1.68% of the Ethereum staking ecosystem.

The process of deleveraging in the DeFi sector is nearing its end.

In June and July, rising lending rates at Aave forced many traders to liquidate their staked STETH positions, leading to temporary sell-offs. Recently, as the deleveraging process continues to unfold, demand for such exits has gradually decreased, with market inflows becoming more dominant.

Some institutions have taken advantage of the lower prices to invest further.

The market has adjusted over the past few days, and some institutions believe in the long-term value of ETH. Trend Research plans to invest an additional $100 million in ETH. On December 25th, after verifying with Jack Yi himself, it was determined that Trend Research’s actual cost of ETH investments since November was around $3150 per unit. This means that the 645,000 ETH held by Trend Research currently result in a loss of approximately $143 million. With the additional $100 million invested in the future, the average cost of ETH is expected to be around $3050 per unit.

Summary

The shift from “entering the queue” to “becoming part of the exit queue” indicates that, for the first time since July, net staking activities have become the dominant trend. This change isn’t just a numerical shift; it represents a crucial signal of market confidence. Of course, whether this trend can continue remains to be seen over time.

Although there has been no significant net inflow into Ethereum spot ETFs so far, the improvements in the underlying conditions on the blockchain are evident. As Joseph Chalom, co-CEO of SharpLink Gaming, said this month, the surge in stablecoins and tokenized real estate assets, along with the growing interest from sovereign wealth funds, could lead to a tenfold increase in Ethereum’s TVL by 2026.

As we approach the end of 2025, is Ethereum ready to make preparations for what lies ahead in 2026? The answer will be determined by time.