The five major institutions have outlined a new blueprint for the crypto industry in 2026: Will ther

As 2025 draws to an end, leading research institutions and blockchain data sources are unanimous in their conclusions: the crypto market is moving away from the old approach of relying on emotional factors to drive trading. Over the past year, the volume of stablecoin transactions has reached new heights, while ETF inflows have become more rational. The revenue generated by infrastructure projects and user retention rates have also begun to show positive trends. Market consensus is shifting towards a new phase of growth, where momentum comes not from short-term speculation, but rather from the gradual unification of liquidity, the implementation of core infrastructure, and the integration of traditional finance with blockchain systems. A more mature and sustainable crypto economy is taking shape.

We have compiled predictions from five research institutions—Coinbase, A16Z Crypto, Four Pillars, Messari, and Delphi Digital—for 2026:

● The four-year cycle is coming to an end: Research institutions agree that the once-every-four-years cycle of speculative halving events is fading away. Instead, we are seeing a shift towards more structured growth patterns, with value being directed toward “ownership tokens” that offer shared benefits, as well as projects that have practical applications, rather than those driven by short-term interests.

● The rise of artificial intelligence agents: Key research institutions such as Delphi Digital, a16z, and Coinbase predict that artificial intelligence agents will become major participants in the economy. Attention may shift towards protocols like KYA (Verify Your Agent) and machine-based settlement layers.

● Super apps:With the clarity of U.S. regulatory policies (Four Pillars, Messari), the complex experience associated with cryptocurrencies will be simplified into user-friendly “super apps” and privacy-protective blockchain technologies. This will help to abstract the technology and enable large-scale applications.

Delphi Digital’s outlook for 2026

Delphi Digital bases its predictions on the assumption of “global convergence”. They believe that by 2026, differences in central bank policies worldwide will cease, and there will be a shift towards unified interest rate cuts and liquidity injections. With the Federal Reserve ending quantitative tightening and global liquidity improving, the market environment will be favorable for hard assets such as gold and Bitcoin.

The rise of the “agency economy” is another major expansion in infrastructure. Artificial intelligence agents will no longer just be chatbots; they will be capable of managing funds, executing complex DeFi strategies, and optimizing profits on the chain without any human intervention.

Social trading and the “pump economy”

In terms of consumer applications, Delphi emphasizes the loyalty of users on platforms like pump.fun. They predict that “social trading” will become more mature. This trend will progress from simple Meme coin gambling to more complex follow-up trading practices, with strategy sharing becoming a tokenized service.

Institutional liquidity

The structure of the market will change as ETFs become more widespread. Traditional financial institutions will continue to flow liquidity into the cryptocurrency market, not only as hedging tools but also as part of standard investment portfolios driven by macroeconomic easing conditions.

完整报告链接：https://members.delphidigital.io/reports/the-year-ahead-for-infra-2026

Messari 2026年展望

Messari的核心论点是“实用性与投机性的脱钩”。他们认为，随着市场分化，“四年周期”模型的相关性正在下降。他们假设2025年是机构投资者获胜而散户投资者举步维艰的一年，为2026年“系统级采用”而非仅仅是资产价格投机奠定了基础。

隐私币崛起($ZEC)

隐私的复兴是逆向扩张的趋势。Messari强调Zcash(ZEC)和类似资产不仅是“隐私币”，更是抵御日益增长的监控和企业控制的必要对冲工具，并预测“私人加密货币”将重新被定价。

所有权币

2026年将出现一种新的分类——“所有权币”，这类代币结合了经济、法律和治理权。Messari认为，所有权币能够解决DAO中的问责危机，并有可能在该特定领域催生首批市值达十亿美元的项目。

DePIN与AI融合

该理论重点关注DePIN(去中心化物理基础设施网络)，预期这些协议能够通过满足AI领域海量的计算和数据需求，找到实际的产品市场契合点。

完整报告链接：https://messari.io/report/the-crypto-theses-2026

Four Pillars 2026年展望

Four Pillars’ outlook focuses on “regulatory restructuring”. Their core assumption is that American legislative measures—specifically mentioning the GENIUS Act and CLARITY Act in their predictions—will provide a blueprint for comprehensive market reforms.

Such clarity in regulations will serve as a catalyst for transforming the market from its chaotic state into a more organized economic system.

In the era of “superapps”,

Four Pillars predicts that the fragmentation of crypto applications will eventually merge into “superapps” – platforms powered by stablecoins, seamlessly integrating payment, investment, and lending functions. The complexity associated with blockchain technology will be completely eliminated.

Tokenization of RWA assets

Reorganizations will drive the tokenization of stocks and traditional assets, but the focus will be on practical utility, rather than experimental pilot projects.

Crypto technologies will become more mature

In terms of technology, they delve into the role of zero-knowledge virtual machines on Ethereum and proof-of-market mechanisms, considering them as essential infrastructure for handling this new type of regulated institutional traffic.

Full report link: https://4pillars.io/en/articles/2026-outlook-restructuring-100ys-perspective

Coinbase’s outlook for 2026

Coinbase的报告预测“四年周期终结”。他们明确指出，2026年将标志着传统比特币减半周期理论的终结。取而代之的是，市场将由结构性因素驱动，对替代价值储存手段的宏观需求，以及加密货币作为一种中等规模的替代资产类别的正式化。

代币经济学2.0

从“仅用于治理”的代币转向“与收入挂钩”的模式。协议将越来越多地实施买入销毁或费用共享机制(符合新法规)，以使代币持有者的激励与平台的成功挂钩。

DAT 2.0(数字资产交易)

朝着专业化交易和“主权区块空间”采购的方向发展，将区块空间视为数字经济的关键商品。

AI与Crypto交汇

Coinbase预计使用加密货币支付轨道的AI代理将大幅增长。他们预测，市场将需要能够处理机器间持续微交易的“加密货币原生结算层”，而传统支付轨道无法支持这种交易。

完整报告链接：https://www.coinbase.com/en-sg/institutional/research-insights/research/market-intelligence/2026-crypto-market-outlook

a16z Crypto 2026年展望

a16z crypto的展望是“互联网将成为银行”。其基本信念是，价值正开始像信息一样自由流动。他们认为“链下”和“链上”世界之间的摩擦是主要瓶颈，而2026年将通过更完善的基础设施消除这一瓶颈。

KYA(验证你的代理人)

一项关键的扩展是从KYC(验证你的客户)向KYA的转变。随着AI代理成为主要的经济参与者，它们将需要加密签名的凭证才能进行交易，从而创建一个新的身份基础设施层。

“原生债券”vs代币化

a16z预测，未来将不再像过去那样将链下资产代币化(例如购买国库券并将其上链)，而是直接在链上发起债务和资产，以降低服务成本并提高透明度。

隐私技术护城河

他们认为，在开源代码的时代，隐私技术(以及保护状态隐私的能力)将成为区块链最重要的竞争护城河，为支持隐私功能的区块链创造强大的网络效应。

全民财富管理

AI与加密货币基础设施的结合将使以往只有高净值人士才能享受的复杂财富管理(例如资产再平衡、税损收割)惠及大众。

完整报告链接：https://a16zcrypto.com/posts/article/big-ideas-things-excited-about-crypto-2026/