CT Vibe Check: Predictions for 2026

To celebrate the end of the year, we’ve gathered a collection of quotes and predictions from the Castle Labs team, the Castle Cap community (which includes many talented individuals), as well as some of our friends.

Since we already released a detailed annual report, we decided to present it in a different format: by quoting builders, real estate agents, researchers, and professional traders who share their thoughts on 2025 and predictions for 2026.

This Substack is supported by readers. If you want to stay updated with new articles and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Enjoy!

1. Castle Labs’ predictions

@francescoweb3

What I hate the most is making predictions! Working in the research industry, I prefer to base my conclusions on data. Therefore, I have faith in only a few trends. The first is robotics. It’s not about robotics itself, but rather the belief that it has the potential to receive regulatory support. Trump has announced a robotics strategy that could be implemented by 2026, and administrative orders are expected to be issued soon. Another prediction is that everyone will need to shift their investment frameworks towards traditional finance. I believe that 2026 will be the year when collaborative operating models reshape their defenses and become deeply integrated into the global financial system. I also expect that market-related crimes will continue, and insider trading will become increasingly rampant. The Trump family’s involvement in the prediction market is a strong sign of future trends. Finally, I expect artificial intelligence to continue developing. It will not only replace more traditional financial processes, but it will also pose threats to privacy and identity matters. Therefore, the issue of artificial intelligence will become increasingly serious. Solutions like Worldcoin’s identity verification will become more important, and they could drive innovations such as collateral-free loans based on blockchain-based reputations (linked to your real-world identity). Thus, I expect 2026 to remain a year of maturity and evaluation. However, none of these factors can operate independently, as the industry relies increasingly on macroeconomic and geopolitical news. Therefore, it’s impossible to analyze token trends without paying attention to events like whether Venezuela is under attack. This is something our CT political analysts should keep in mind!

@0xatomist

Zero-knowledge proofs will become the core of global digital infrastructure, but their implementation doesn’t necessarily require encryption or blockchain technology. They will be integrated into the traditional Web 2.0 world, helping to address the major challenges related to data privacy—such as secure identity verification, safe login processes, and verifiable artificial intelligence systems. Those who can develop a “legal” and widely accepted method for hiding transactions on the blockchain will achieve great success, as this is a prerequisite for enabling the first real enterprises and institutions to leverage blockchain technology for their financial transactions.

The market will eventually realize that cryptocurrencies are crucial for the development of robotics. By 2050, the market for humanoid robots is expected to reach $5 trillion, but they face significant challenges due to the need for unique motion and environmental data, which requires a different approach from simple linear models. Evidence from 2025 shows that DePIN/DePAI is the only way to accelerate large-scale robot training. Through token-based incentives, we can mobilize global contributors to collect the necessary data for physical AI systems. Cryptocurrencies will no longer be limited to the financial sector; they will become the coordinating layer of the machine economy.

@schizoxbt

80% of altcoins and blockchain projects will ultimately fail, as most of them have poor token economics models and unattractive products, making them unworthwhile investments. Memecoin should also disappear like the dodo, as they represent one of the most stupid creations of our industry.

I also believe that DeFi will experience a complete revival by 2026. As institutional and traditional financial investors flood into the blockchain at an unprecedented scale, DeFi protocols—which represent the closest approximation to stock/investable assets in our industry—will be the main beneficiaries. Their total locked value should increase with the influx of institutional funds (hopefully so). If institutional investments lead to a explosive growth in DeFi’s total locked value, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the price of these tokens skyrockets.

Although there were brief periods of rapid growth related to privacy issues, these problems quickly subsided. I think privacy concerns will resurface and become one of the key issues in 2026.

We also hope to see more discussions surrounding the token economy model and the rights of token holders, aiming to find better solutions than current approaches. The current token economy models are quite poor, and most of them are barely satisfactory. I hope we can see some innovations in this area in the future!

@noveleader

The audience for cryptocurrencies is becoming more mature. People are generally less susceptible to scams, at least as evidenced by the situation in 2025. Additionally, the core cryptocurrency audience is beginning to pay more attention to factors such as returns and the rights enjoyed by token holders. Next year, we will see more discussions around these topics, with the goal of developing protocols that can create value for token holders while maintaining their relevance.

Next year, malicious trading, privacy protection, artificial intelligence, and robotics will continue to develop rapidly. While ordinary users may not care much about privacy issues since they already use anonymous methods, institutions, protocols, decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), and high-net-worth individuals will place greater emphasis on secure transaction processes. By 2025, malicious trading and on-chain spot trading will account for a larger portion of transactions in centralized exchanges, while on-chain finance will become more widely utilized. The user onboarding processes and funding mechanisms in DeFi will also undergo significant changes, with traditional methods being replaced by consumer-oriented applications. Applications like Aave App and Worldcoin will become one of the first platforms that new cryptocurrency users encounter. This will help new users avoid being victims of hacking attacks, and “low-risk DeFi” will become even more prominent.

Predictions suggest that the market will ultimately prevail, but Polymarket and Kalshi will dominate the majority of the market. Although other participants will also contribute to innovation, they will have their own niche markets. Additionally, developing applications based on existing platforms will be very beneficial. There will be a surge in robots on Polymarket, and any pricing errors will be quickly corrected in those higher-resolution markets within seconds or even milliseconds.

2. Castle Cap Community predictions

@0x_ultra- @Kalshi

2025年，预测市场从应用程序发展成为金融平台，从利基市场演变为交易新模式。过去几年，我们身处的行业已经明显感受到，世界正朝着金融化方向发展，其影响涵盖我们生活的方方面面，包括专业知识。如今，世界其他地区正通过接触预测市场来了解金融的未来图景。每个人都拥有某种领域的专业知识，他们应该拥有将这些知识变现的工具。

@proofofjake_- @ripdotfun

总体而言，我认为收藏品市场在未来一年将呈指数级增长，因为宝可梦即将迎来 30 周年纪念，而海贼王 30 周年纪念也将在 2027 年到来。去年，许多链上 RWA 项目，特别是链上收藏品项目(例如 Courtyards 的卓越增长，以及其他项目)都出现了强劲的 PMF 指标。https://dune.com/zkayape/pokemontcgsol))。

@kirbyongeo- @hypurr_co

超流动性将成为整个金融体系的流动性层。

HIP-3 之后，交易量将增长 10 倍，新的部署者将目光投向长尾资产。我们将看到由 Hyperliquid 驱动的独特犯罪分子和创新。

构建器代码已经帮助现有应用(例如 Phantom 和 Metamask)获得分发渠道和收入。哪里有钱，哪里就会有关注点，我们将看到更多应用使用构建器代码进行开发。

Ultimately, the boundaries between different systems will become blurred. People may not even realize that they are using Hyperliquid infrastructure for transactions.

Creating a blockchain capable of supporting all forms of finance is an ambitious goal. The path ahead may be challenging, but when you see potential returns of 100 times the original investment, everything else becomes insignificant in order to help make this vision a reality.

@mattdotfi- @backedFi

Tokenization gives traditional assets the ability to be combined and modularized, thereby creating new opportunities for a more inclusive financial ecosystem, suitable for everyone from institutional investors to individual investors. The impressive growth of tokenized stocks in the 2025 era indicates strong market demand. And as new applications in areas like DeFi continue to emerge, this demand will only continue to grow.

@ericonomic- @try_supercexy

Traders are moving away from centralized exchanges and towards mainstream platforms, thanks in large part to Hyperliquid. The success of Hyperliquid has made many traders realize that most centralized exchanges operate in a highly opaque manner, with their main motivation being the pursuit of self-interest. Decentralized trading platforms have become a real alternative. These platforms can now offer user experiences similar to those of centralized exchanges, while avoiding the same structural conflicts of interest.

我预计到 2026 年，去中心化交易所(DEX)的实际交易量将达到中心化交易所(CEX)交易量的 50%，考虑到 CEX 交易量报告存在大量虚报甚至捏造的情况，实际交易量很可能超过 DEX。因此，许多区域性和规模较小的 CEX 将越来越多地通过代码构建器迁移到 Hyperliquid 的基础设施上。

@dandefied- @ryskfinance

2026 年将是 DeFi 的关键一年。

基础设施终于成熟。经受住了这一轮考验的产品都已久经沙场，机构投资者也开始在链上进行大规模交易。这为证明 DeFi 并非小众领域或赌场，而是比传统金融体系更清洁、更安全、更高效的替代方案创造了真正的机会。

交易仍将由非法交易者主导，而超流动性交易将继续扩大差​​距。

永久合约仍然是链上交易产品的主流。流动性、用户体验和执行质量决定了最终的赢家，而 Hyperliquid 遥遥领先。新兴的永久合约市场(例如股票永久合约)是一个很有前景的尝试，但如何吸引新用户并从传统金融领域引入新的流动性才是真正的挑战，也是其主要的增长机遇。

2026 年也将是期权在 DeFi 领域最终成为主流的一年。

不能作为交易工具。犯罪分子赢了。

The real opportunity lies in using options to create targeted use cases. For example, generating income from volatility, or creating revenue structures that require no interaction between users and the underlying complexity.

Capital has begun to shift towards products that use options as a trading medium, rather than just a means of trading. 2026 will be the year when this trend becomes more apparent.

@reisnertobias

Hyperliquid metals in 2025-2026

Next year will be a critical year for Hyperliquid as it strives to become a comprehensive financial blockchain platform. Recently, we’ve seen more and more teams launching platforms based on HIP-3, involving foreign exchange, rare metals, and even Pokémon cards. In addition to Hyperliquid’s continuous technological advancements, we also see increased competition from other decentralized exchanges. What will happen next is something worth watching. Overall, market growth is a positive sign.

@insomniac988- @thetanutsfi

InfoFi has gone bankrupt!

No, that’s not true at all. It’s far from being true.

Like all emerging fields, InfoFi has also faced challenges during its growth. From being accused of promoting bad AI projects and failing to deliver expected returns, to questions about激励机制和内容质量, this field undoubtedly experienced many difficulties in 2025.

But let’s take a step back and look at the situation.

自 Kaito Yaps 一年多前推出 InfoFi 以来，InfoFi 的发展势头已然显现。它将继续演进，如果您一直关注 InfoFi，就会发现它即将迎来变革的迹象。InfoFi 正在积极打击机器人行为，利用链上历史记录构建更完善的参与者画像，并更加注重如何衡量和奖励用户心智份额。

我估计到 2026 年，InfoFi 将进一步成熟，拥有更好的机制、更精简的激励措施，以及能够满足用户和项目预期结果的成果。

所以，InfoFi 并没有消亡，它正处于转型期。

就我个人而言，这是我个人觉得很有意思的阶段。

@CryptoPadawan55

● 人工智能将继续保持其受欢迎程度，并继续成为股票回报的主要驱动力，但最初的裂痕将开始表明它部分处于泡沫之中(传统金融领域人工智能初创公司估值过高、金融承诺自嗨、长期贷款收益率比国债收益率高出 100 个基点)。

● 从根本上讲，加密和人工智能领域将在溯源和自动化等领域蓬勃发展。Web 2 中行之有效的技术在 Web 3 中也同样适用，但在 Web 3 中，数据溯源的维护可以更加高效，例如，针对特定用例(区分真实数据和人工智能生成的数据)使用零知识证明 (ZKP)。

● At present, we haven’t yet seen any major consumer applications that utilize LLMs (with over 500 million monthly active users). The 95% of value created by artificial intelligence for humans will come from consumer applications that make use of advanced LLMs. However, it’s necessary to win the battle at the forefront of LLM technology first—and this will take time (at least 3-5 years). ChatGPT generates hallucinations, misinterprets information, and even fabricates sources and data on its own. This isn’t really a fundamental value.

● Currently, the applications with the highest number of monthly active users are those related to voice, text, video, and audio generation. As profit margins increase and competition intensifies, by 2026, AI-generated spam/robots will become even more widespread. We will see more stringent distinctions between content generated by AI and that created by humans. The more AI-generated spam there is, and the more common robot networks become, the more people will actively speak out against them.

@0xmars_- @moonpay

2025 marks a turning point in the transition of financial technologies to blockchain-based systems. Financial applications will no longer just integrate cryptocurrencies; they will instead rebuild their technical infrastructure directly on the blockchain.

This transformation is due to the simultaneous maturation of two key technologies. Channels for integrating blockchain technologies into existing systems have evolved from basic infrastructure into scalable solutions that prioritize user experience, allowing anyone to use blockchain-based financial services. Stablecoins have become the default method for holding and transferring value on the blockchain.

What’s emerging isn’t just new infrastructure, but also the underlying layer of global capital flows. In this layer, value can flow freely, just like information flows across the internet.

@sakshimiishra- @a1research__

The proportion of US dollars in global reserves is decreasing. This indicates that funds are shifting from the US dollar (which is considered a legal global reserve asset) to hard assets such as gold. Since gold is a physical asset, it also has its own drawbacks. Therefore, Bitcoin becomes an ideal asset for storing funds. Many countries are considering establishing Bitcoin reserves, and more countries will follow suit in the future.

Tokenization is also growing rapidly in the real world. Institutional investors will actively participate in tokenization and conduct transactions on the blockchain. By 2025, institutional investors may start using DAT (mainly for investing in cryptocurrencies). However, by 2026, they will directly enter the on-chain market. If institutional investors choose to enter the on-chain market, they won’t be able to operate in such a transparent environment. Therefore, many chains will adopt the PaaS model. This means that on the currently popular on-chain platforms, they can choose to keep their activities private.

I believe that volatility will continue in the first quarter, but Bitcoin prices will be strong in the second quarter. After that, some altcoins will follow suit. But as we’ve seen throughout this cycle, there are few winners. So it’s important to be cautious when making investments.

@darrencamas- @ipor_io

The continuous rate cuts before the U.S. midterm elections have led to an increase in risk appetite. As a result, the yields on government bonds have decreased, while DeFi stablecoins and lending optimization tools offer significant risk-reward opportunities. Ethena’s interest rates have risen again, and DeFi-native stablecoins with cyclical mechanisms have created numerous arbitrage opportunities for new market entrants. Fusion has seen growth in all three areas: lending optimization, leverage cycling strategies, and arbitrage trading.

@route2fi

I am optimistic about the overall prospects of the cryptocurrency industry, but not so much regarding altcoins. I believe the altcoin market is nearing saturation. For example, over the past three months, countless ICO projects experienced price drops of 50% to 70% within 24 hours after their initial public offerings.

The cryptocurrency sector continues to develop rapidly. I think we are transitioning from one stage to another: people no longer sell altcoins, but instead focus on the practical applications of these tokens. In my opinion, this is a positive development, as we don’t need more tokens that lack practical use cases.

I believe that by 2026, traditional finance will become dominant again. Products that require KYC authentication, such as stocks with 1:1 futures/ perpetual contracts, as well as leveraged products in prediction markets, will emerge. Additionally, I think traditional finance will dominate the entire industry. People like us won’t be hired just because they post on Twitter anymore. Even so, I still believe we have 2-5 years left.

Undeveloped – Venture Capital Funds

The “extensive networking” approach to venture capital investment is no longer relevant. It’s better to first validate a product with a Minimum Viable Product (MVP), and then seek financing through public launches. Many venture capital firms have closed down and transformed into service-oriented, consulting-based, market-making, or over-the-counter (OTC) institutions, trying to maintain their advantages over the retail market. But many of these firms eventually realize that they don’t have an advantage in these areas either. The collapse of these funds is inevitable for the entire industry, and it’s a healthy process of reallocation of resources. Those venture capital firms that dare to take risks will transform into more liquid institutions, entering the market on equal footing.

@defipleb- Chad memecoin trader

In the cryptocurrency market, prices often fluctuate rapidly between extreme greed and fear. Eventually, we will return to a state of extreme greed—altcoins will revive, and everything will stabilize. Keep an eye on emerging fields like robotics and predictive markets, as these areas are attracting significant investment. They might offer some of the most promising investment opportunities.

@0xasrequired- @lifiprotocol

The four-year cycle seems to continue, so I expect that the pandemic will remain trending downward throughout 2026. There could even be “black swan” events (for example, more bodies being discovered after October 10th?). However, with the end of lockdowns, the situation might not be as bad as in 2022 or 2018.

I believe that order-book-based decentralized exchanges will continue to dominate the market. I expect their token generation events to be successful, as they serve as a source of revenue in the cryptocurrency sector. While rewards are driving up certain metrics and revenues of some DEXs, I don’t think this is a bubble—after all, it’s just my hope. In the cryptocurrency world, we’ve seen similar hype situations that eventually lead to bubbles bursting. However, I believe we are witnessing the growth of a new market segment.

Hyperliquid still holds 42.888% of HYPE tokens for distribution. Since November 2024, the company has not introduced any significant incentives. I think HYPE token distributions could continue for more than ten years. Other DEXs will likely follow Hyperliquid’s example and conduct multiple distribution events, so as to avoid emptying out their token pools overnight and losing users. Beyond DEXs themselves, I expect most token generation apps (including those that aren’t from Hyperliquid) as well as HIP-3 DEXs to also carry out multiple distribution events. Even if they don’t do so, new distribution projects will continue to emerge as needed.

3. The predictions of Castle’s friends

@joshuacheong- @mantle_official

Risk-weighted assets are transitioning from the experimental stage to a more scalable phase—with current values ranging from approximately $36 billion to potentially exceeding one trillion dollars within this decade. The fixed-income market has been the first to demonstrate market demand. However, tokenized stocks have grown more than 100 times in just one year, indicating where the next growth point may lie. By 2026, the number of assets issued will become less important; what matters truly is their utilization rate. Assets that can be used for loans, traded around the clock, and recycled within the decentralized finance sector will dominate. The adoption by institutional investors will be driven by infrastructure such as on-chain settlement and messaging systems, rather than through brand-based approaches targeting retail users. As the minimum investment amount decreases from millions of dollars to just a few dollars, and liquidity remains available even on weekends, the participation of retail investors will increase rapidly. With the penetration rate of tokenization currently at only 0.01%, there is significant potential for growth if we can overcome the challenges related to liquidity distribution and interoperability. By 2026, the standard for measuring risk-weighted assets will no longer be the size of the value on the chain, but rather the frequency of value circulation.

@dabit3- @eigencloud

In 2025, three things happened simultaneously: cryptocurrencies gained real recognition in the traditional financial sector, artificial intelligence agents found a suitable market for their products, and the x402 protocol opened up the door to large-scale internet-native payments. In the past, people would ask, “Why use cryptocurrencies for this?” Now we have a clear answer to that question.

@sukiorlove- @chaoslabs

DeFi will only become more complex over time. Over the past year, DeFi activities have focused on highly complex Ethena/Pendle-style circular transactions. Platforms like Maple have also followed this trend, introducing similar transaction structures. Income-driven asset portfolios will become significantly more diversified: risk stratification will be more detailed, sources of funds will be more diverse, and product design will focus more on predictable risk/return characteristics, rather than simply pursuing the highest (unadjusted for risk) returns.

DeFi is also constantly adding new layers. Assets begin to function like Layer L1, lending protocols function like Layer L2, and vaults function like Layer L3. These layered concepts each encapsulate risks, liquidity, and interoperability in different ways. As more participants with quantitative thinking join the field, market efficiency is expected to improve significantly, leading to more accurate pricing, faster arbitrage opportunities, and less systemic capital allocation.

The debate over which approach is better—liquidity diversification or risk isolation—will continue. Only when the total value of assets under management (TVL) grows significantly can a clear “winner” be identified.

@Oxwizzdom

Privacy technologies will become essential features of DeFi, and they will continue to evolve as they integrate deeper into emerging cryptocurrency sectors, from prediction markets to stablecoins. Early examples of this integration can be seen in projects like mirageprivacy.

By the end of 2025, new forms of prediction markets have emerged, such as Bentodotfun, predictdotfun, and 42space.

Events like the x402 campaign organized by companies such as Tempo and Arc are expected to increase rapidly on the Solana network. Additionally, most enterprises tend to favor Solana’s neutrality, which will also lead to more activities on this network.

At the same time, as investors, institutions, and users become more concerned about the practical value of products rather than their TPS capabilities, the pace of new L2 product launches may slow down.

The fragmentation of ecosystems (L1s/L2s/DeFi) has increased the reliance on interoperability protocols/systems.

Horses, criminals, and privacy issues are among the top concerns for both established players and newcomers.

Improvements in user experience are being made across the entire technology stack, with non-local users becoming the new primary target audience.

@litocoen- @socketprotocol

I believe we have been in a bear market for quite some time. The sooner you accept this reality and stop anchoring your investments in historical highs, the happier and more successful you will be. Why are we in a bear market? In short, it’s due to uncertainty. I don’t need to list all the factors here; just look at this miserable world. As key issues like tariffs, wars, and quantum computing are resolved or absorbed by the market, things will improve over time. But for now, uncertainty hangs over us like the sword of Damocles.

In addition to being in a bear market, the cryptocurrency market also seems to be undergoing changes. The era of bubbles is over. Wall Street and Silicon Valley are getting involved, along with their metrics such as price-to-earnings ratios, customer acquisition costs, and unit economic efficiency.

Personally, I’m very hopeful about this upcoming period. I believe we will see unprecedented acceleration in the development and practical application of cryptocurrency products. In the past two years, companies like Hyperliquid and Ethena have demonstrated this clearly. Their founders have managed to turn their products into multimillion-dollar businesses at an astonishing rate, and the products they created are even better than anything that could have been created by any founder in the past decade.

Besides keeping an eye on market trends and reading books about founder skills, I’m not sure how best to prepare for this new phase of the cryptocurrency industry. But as my thoughts become clearer, I will share more information with you.

By the way, this doesn’t mean that only banks and Wall Street can benefit from this next era. That’s not true at all. The native marketing features of cryptocurrencies still have an advantage (token incentives, globalization, a highly active global user base, etc.). Also, concepts like privacy, which are part of the crypto subculture, are more valuable than ever before. I just think that the landscape will change drastically. Some DeFi founders won’t be able to adapt to the next stage and will eventually disappear. Others will thrive, and new DeFi founders will emerge along the way.

The industries I’m optimistic about:

● Institutions that provide infrastructure expansion/financing services (such as USDai or Daylight), along with models based on reliable data-driven approaches to underwrite these investments.

● Innovations in the DeFi domain: For example, Fluid combines money markets and DEXs to improve capital efficiency. I believe that DEX v2 will make them the leading DEX. There are also protocols that make DeFi benefits more accessible to the outside world (such as aggregation, stratification, interest rate swaps, etc.).

● Exchanges: This concept of “everything being tradable” is becoming increasingly popular. I believe its development will follow similar patterns to centralized exchanges. Currently, there are five major exchanges. Hyperliquid is currently the winner, but Lighter, Extended, Ethereal, and Osium are all strong competitors. Hyena doesn’t really compete, as it is built upon Hyperliquid.

● Prediction markets: The CFTC’s decision to legalize prediction markets could be a turning point in the history of prediction markets. Prediction markets aren’t considered part of “cryptocurrencies” per se. But since this is a completely new industry, it’s not surprising that all major players use cryptocurrency infrastructure (stablecoins, smart contracts for market settlement, tokenized products for portfolios, etc.). Polymarket and Kalshi will definitely issue tokens. We’ll also see innovative developments in areas like lending markets and professional trading platforms. Fireplace.gg

● New banks and superapps:There’s nothing controversial about this. Integrating all the basic functions of cryptocurrencies—payment methods, spot trading, stablecoins, yields, etc.—into a user-friendly mobile application that requires no custody is still a huge untapped market. Now is the perfect time to do so.

Who knows? Maybe unexpected developments will occur, just as happens in this industry often. We can’t predict everything, but one thing is certain:

Cryptocurrencies will ultimately prevail.

Tim – a DeFi strategist

This year has been full of ups and downs. Things started well, but political factors caused Ethereum prices to plummet. Later, as market confidence recovered, demand for DAT increased significantly, pushing Ethereum prices to record highs. But now, those prices are starting to decline again. Bitcoin prices have stabilized due to inflows of trading funds.

In the coming year, I expect Bitcoin prices to range between $75,000 and $140,000, while Ethereum prices will fluctuate between $2,000 and $6,000. As on-chain returns decrease, it’s expected that the growth of risk-weighted assets (RWA) and private credit will help diversify on-chain risks. By 2026, decentralized asset tokens (DAT) will focus on transferring assets to vaults, thereby creating additional income streams for underlying assets.

@crypto_linn

We have never been so fortunate as we are now. Cryptocurrencies have lost their original purpose of standing against certain forces. If you feel like you’re fighting against traditional finance and banks, then a decline might be easier to bear. But if cryptocurrencies also get involved, things become much more complicated, as traditional finance will play various tricks… Patience will eventually pay off. It’s expected that 2026 will be a difficult year for those who have been investing steadily during these periods of selling/bargaining.

Moreover, no one can predict what Pendel will do in 2026.

Pendel.

@deankd_- @rwa_xyz

So far, the United States has led the way in tokenization, but Europe, especially Germany, is starting to gain more market share. The market value of German stablecoins has grown from around $500 million to nearly $4 billion by 2025. This is mainly due to the efforts of the MiCA project, which has helped increase institutional demand.

● We will see traditional institutions and commercial banks introduce numerous tokenized money market funds. Existing institutions have realized that tokenization can improve liquidity and reduce operating costs—this is an inevitable trend for them.

● The value of tokenized private credit could double, as issuers will find that presenting off-chain loans in a more efficient on-chain format can significantly improve operational efficiency.

● I believe that 2026 will be a year of growth for the US stock tokenization market. Meanwhile, the corporate bond market will remain relatively sluggish, as the existing market structure is already sufficient for most issuers.

● 总体而言，机构投资者的兴趣已经从“我们是否应该探索代币化?”转变为“我们应该以多快的速度推进”。我每天都与银行、监管机构和资产管理公司交流——很明显，更多的流动性正准备涌入这一领域，尤其是在上半年。

● 大多数代币化资产面临的是 B2B 市场推广(GTM)问题，而非技术发行问题。我预测，到 2026 年，代币化领域最大的转变将体现在市场推广方面，而非技术层面。大多数人忽略了基本的增长原则，例如优先考虑买家而非资产本身。机构投资者并非购买任何“代币化资产”，而是购买那些符合自身合规和托管要求的资产。

@wajahat- @spreads_fi

关于收益的总体看法(稳定币和其他收益资产)：

● 收益率总体上正趋于商品化，因此，对于企业、协议或资产发行方而言，提供高年利率已远远不够。如今，几乎没有什么能真正构成竞争优势。一切都取决于分销能力。例外情况是那些通常根本无法获得的收益——例如 Rysk(期权收益率)、Yield basis(无 IL 的 AMM 收益率)和 Neutrl(场外交易收益率)。

● 最终，我们将看到各种各样奇奇怪怪的收益产品从 Web 2.0 涌现，通常是像私募信贷和保险收益之类的东西。

● DeFi 收益完全来源于投机。如果没有对杠杆或加密货币投机的需求，收益率将暴跌至国库券利率水平。

当人们再次开始投机比特币，当它最终开始出现一些绿色蜡烛图时，预计收益率将再次上升!

2026 年 DeFi 的发展前景如何?

● 庞大的代币化股票生态系统。不仅仅是资产发行，我认为我们几乎会在链上为每只股票提供自动做市商(AMM)、订单簿、衍生品、收益产品等等，就像今天在链上购买以太坊一样便捷无摩擦。

(未来价差交易也将在这个领域持续发展)

@blueclarityone- @layerzero_core

2025 年，加密货币营销比以往任何一年都更加成熟。随着该行业进入早期普及阶段，营销的角色正在从证明相关性和吸引注意力转向赢得信任。我们看到，短期、算法驱动的、旨在实现病毒式传播的策略，与更注重长期定位和拓展传统 DeFi 核心用户群体之外的、更为严谨的品牌战略之间出现了明显的分化。

Large cryptocurrency brands are increasingly investing in traditional channels, such as email marketing, paid social media campaigns, market research, and building a strong presence on LinkedIn. As cryptocurrency technology becomes more widely accepted by the industry by 2025, institutions and financial services companies will start to adopt this technology faster. This will lead to more frequent instances of “logo x logo” marketing between brands, with each brand trying to use this opportunity to enhance its reputation and establish connections with well-known brands outside the DeFi ecosystem. This trend is expected to continue until 2026. At the same time, as consumers become tired of superficial metrics, blockchain jargon, and meaningless performance claims, the focus of brand messaging shifts from product-driven narratives to emotional resonance and identity building. Although the concept of “mind share” is gradually disappearing, it remains an important indicator of a brand’s relevance and influence. I believe it will continue to play a role in marketing strategies.

What I’m most interested in is how acquisition strategies will evolve. If implemented properly, cryptocurrency-powered banks have the potential to gain significant market share, but this requires learning from the successful experiences of traditional banks.

@hufhaus9- @pearProtocol

My view for 2026 is that the gap in returns between “good” investments and “bad” investments will widen.

Assets like Bitcoin have structured buyers, such as those through ETFs. Therefore, it could be significant for financial companies to increase their asset allocation from 1% to 3%. Additionally, profit-taking initiatives could expand the products offered to stocks and other risk-weighted assets, which previously faced higher regulatory barriers. Meanwhile, many of the top 100 projects still have a large amount of Bitcoin waiting to be released, but there is a lack of marginal buyers for this supply. I expect that by 2026, the price of BTC.d will reach around 60% of its current level, and then gradually rise over the year. The strategy of “going long on Bitcoin/going short on other assets” will be applicable both in bull and bear markets.

Other strategies I believe are promising include going long on MNT and going short on BNB, as Bybit is actively seeking to take over market share from Binance as a centralized exchange, and is integrating MNT’s features more deeply into its ecosystem. In the field of decentralized exchanges, competition is intensifying, and we will continue to see innovations in terms of optimizing collateral and associated returns. The integration of CLOB with DeFi tools is interesting, and with the emergence of tools like Nado, Extended, and Hyperliquid, this integration will continue to develop, reshaping the value proposition for users on these platforms.

Overall, I remain cautious about macroeconomics. I believe that Bitcoin will find its bottom around 65,000-70,000, and then recover before the mid-term elections in November 2026.