Bitcoin experienced the worst Q4 performance since 2018, with a weak market rebound.

After Bitcoin reached a new high of $123,000, the crypto market did not continue its euphoria. Instead, it quickly entered a period of deep adjustment. With liquidity tightening and declining enthusiasm for investing, the total market value of global cryptocurrencies fell by about 20%. Many altcoins experienced sharp declines, with prices dropping by 80% to 99%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s market share returned to around 60%, returning to the structure seen in the early stages of previous cycles. This contradicts the optimistic expectations at the beginning of the year, where people believed Bitcoin could reach $200,000 per unit. This indicates that the industry is moving from an emotional-driven expansion phase towards a more brutal but more mature process of value reshaping.

The market has completed its transition from speculative fervor to a return to value during these turbulent times.

I. Annual Trend: From Cycle Disillusionment to Structural Reorganization

● In 2025, the crypto market did not follow the expected four-year bull market. Instead, it became a year of “structural adjustment” for the industry. Since mid-2025, the market has shown high volatility and downward pressure. Prices of major assets continued to decline, trading volumes decreased, and investor confidence was generally low.

● Bitcoin’s performance in 2025 was dramatic. In July, Bitcoin reached a historic high of $123,000, and there was optimism in the market. Many well-known institutions and industry leaders predicted that Bitcoin could reach $180,000 to $200,000 or even higher by the end of the year.

● However, reality was different. As of December, Bitcoin had fallen by about 30% compared to its peak in 2025. The year saw significant fluctuations, with prices sometimes exceeding $100,000 and sometimes falling below $75,000.

● The extent of market adjustments exceeded expectations. After a brief rebound in the price of mainstream tokens in the first half of 2025, prices entered a period of decline starting in October, with further drops in November. The prices of the top 50 tokens almost dropped to levels similar to those after the FTX collapse in 2022.

II. Market Structure: Bitcoin remains dominant, while altcoins suffer severe losses

● In the restructuring of the market in 2025, Bitcoin’s dominance increased significantly. Bitcoin’s market value accounted for an impressive 64% throughout the year, remaining above 60% for most of the year, returning to levels seen during 2019-2020.

● As time progressed, market sentiment changed. After reaching its peak, Bitcoin’s market share dropped below 60% at the end of August. By September, Bitcoin’s dominance stabilized at around 57.9%, matching the total value of the altcoin market, which reached $1.12 trillion.

● In contrast to Bitcoin, the altcoin market performed poorly. In 2025, most altcoins experienced collapses ranging from 80% to 99%. The market became highly fragmented, with over 40 million to 50 million different coins available on the market.

● In the second quarter of 2025, strong buying activities drove the AltSeason index to exceed the 75 threshold, marking a temporary period of dominance for altcoins. However, due to liquidity withdrawal caused by tariffs and outflows of ETF funds, the index dropped sharply, ending the year at around 19. The market once again became dominated by Bitcoin.

III. Key Events: Summer Craze and Regulatory Breakthroughs

● 2025年7月成为市场情绪的转折点。7月18日，加密货币市场迎来“狂欢”，以太坊突破3600美元/枚，创今年1月以来新高;XRP一度涨近20%。

当天盘中，全球加密货币市值首次突破4万亿美元大关。这不仅是象征性突破，更标志着加密货币在全球金融体系中的结构性重新定位。

● 监管领域也出现重大进展。7月17日，美国众议院通过了包括《指导与建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》在内的三项与加密货币相关的法案。

● 美国总统特朗普预计将签署行政命令，允许价值约9万亿美元的美国401(k)退休储蓄计划投资加密货币、黄金等另类资产。这一政策若实施，可能彻底改变美国人储蓄资金的管理方式。

四、机构进场：从边缘到主流的资本迁移

2025年见证了机构资本对加密市场流动性的全面掌控。在多年观望之后，机构资本终于超越了散户，成为市场的主导力量。

● 美国现货比特币ETF的资金流动尤为显著。仅在2025年第四季度，美国现货比特币ETF的每周资金流入就超过了35亿美元。贝莱德的IBIT成为主导玩家，持有近70万枚比特币。

● The shift in institutional investment models is also worth noting. Bitcoin is no longer seen as an asset driven by curiosity, but rather as a macro tool with investment portfolio benefits.

● There has been a change in ownership dynamics: large asset managers tend to hold Bitcoin directly, while pension funds and endowments typically obtain access to Bitcoin through ETFs. Financial advisors are reasserting their dominance among institutional investors, now controlling 50% of all 13-F Bitcoin ETF assets.

V. Emerging Trends: From Speculative Narratives to Infrastructure Value

By 2025, several key areas will shift from speculative narratives to real infrastructure, indicating the industry’s maturation direction.

● Tokenization of Physical Assets It has evolved from a concept to an infrastructure for the capital market. As of October 2025, the total market value of RWA tokens exceeded $23 billion, a nearly four-fold increase from previous years. Approximately half of these tokens represent tokenized U.S. government bonds and money market strategies.

● Stablecoins As a “killer app” in the crypto world, stablecoins fulfilled their core promise in 2025: the creation of large-scale, programmable dollars. In the past 12 months, the volume of transactions involving on-chain stablecoins reached $46 trillion, a 106% increase compared to previous years.

● Prediction Markets By 2025, prediction markets became one of the fastest-growing verticals, with nominal weekly transaction volumes reaching $3.8 billion for the first time. This marks the transformation of blockchain-based markets from mere “toys” into true financial infrastructure.

VI. Technological Evolution: Competition for Expansion and Breakthroughs at the Second Layer

In 2025, second-layer solutions for Bitcoin will make significant progress. These solutions involve processing transactions outside the main Bitcoin blockchain, while leveraging the security and decentralization features of the main blockchain.

● The Lightning Network, as the most prominent second-layer implementation, enables nearly instant transactions through payment channels. Other solutions, such as Stacks, bring smart contract capabilities to the Bitcoin ecosystem. Rootstock, as a sidechain, makes complex programmable transactions possible.

● In the Ethereum second-layer space, a “winner-takes-all” scenario emerges. Arbitrum, Base, and Optimism attract most of the newly added capital and liquidity. Smaller Rollup projects, however, experience a 70%-90% decrease in revenue and activity after incentives are removed.

● Meanwhile, cross-chain bridge transactions have increased dramatically. In July 2025 alone, transactions amounted to $56.1 billion. This indicates that “everything is Rollup” actually means “everything is fragmented.” Users still need to deal with isolated balances and duplicate liquidity issues.

VII. Liquidity Challenges: Global Disparities and Internal Tensions

In 2025, the crypto market faces serious structural problems related to liquidity. There is a significant structural disparity in global liquidity, with the crypto market falling behind the rest. Market participants are increasingly focusing on fundamentals, revenue, and other practical values.

交易所数据显示，比特币储备从8月初以来下降约8%，储备USD价值从约3，000亿降至11月的2，500亿。这显示出投资者从交易所撤资的趋势，强化了抛售信号。

行业内部也面临多重挑战。VC投资萎缩，总融资仅占2024年约一半，项目方资金链紧张。DeFi收益率显著降低，相较于2024年，DeFi收益率降至5%以下。

安全事件频发，上半年因黑客攻击造成的损失超过20亿美元，Layer1链拥堵事件等也影响了市场信心。

八、价值重构与监管明朗化

● 展望2026年，市场将更多关注基本面、利益对齐、价值积累以及复利杠杆。行业将进入价值重构阶段，企业、初创公司和传统金融人士将扮演更重要角色。

● 证券代币化领域在2025年底迎来重要突破。美国证券交易委员会发布“不采取行动函”，明确表示不会对DTCC子公司的证券代币化试点计划采取执法行动。这意味着从2026年起，将看到更多的证券代币化项目。

● 监管环境将趋于正常化。美国国会正推动赋予CFTC对加密现货市场更大的管辖权。CFTC预计在明年初推出一项政策，可能允许稳定币作为衍生品市场的代币化抵押品。

● 市场参与者需要培养真正的竞争优势，否则即使是最资深的玩家也可能面临挑战。竞争优势可以体现在多种领域：从交易技能到行业洞察，从技术专长到社区建设。

站在2025年末回望，加密总市值在3万亿美元关口反复震荡，比特币在8.8万美元附近徘徊。分析师们普遍认为，比特币正面临2018年以来最差的第四季度表现。

曾经备受炒作的“超级周期”叙事正在瓦解。市场关注焦点转向了宏观风险、季节性疲软和地缘政治不确定性。以太坊交易价格与2022年相差无几，而行业内部问题频传，从黑客攻击到项目方资金链紧张，每个市场参与者都面临困难。

2025年加密货币市场的真正遗产可能是：从单纯的价格炒作转向了基础设施建设和实际应用场景探索。