The number of profit-taking signals has increased significantly. The bull market cycle of Bitcoin (B

As market enthusiasm continues to rise, signs of profit-taking also become more apparent. Recent data shows that various indicators related to Bitcoin have increased significantly. Many investors have chosen to sell their positions at high prices. Many analysts believe that the bull market cycle may be entering its “late stage.” At such critical moments, how to interpret market signals and balance risks with opportunities becomes a question that every participant must consider.

Key points:

● According to Glassnode’s data, indicators of profit-taking in Bitcoin are indicating signs of the late stage of a bull market cycle.

● The inflow of funds into Bitcoin has significantly decreased. The peak of large-scale profit-taking occurred when Bitcoin reached $124,000 per unit. However, analysts believe that new highs may occur within two to three months.

● New investors and short-term holders are actively accumulating Bitcoin, effectively countering the selling pressure in the market.

Bitcoin has entered the “late stage” of its market cycle. Professional analysis platform Glassnode notes that current indicators of profit-taking and patterns of capital flow are very similar to those seen at the peaks of previous cycles.

Latest data analysis shows that the current cycle of Bitcoin bears significant similarities to the markets between 2015-2018 and 2018-2022. In these historical cycles, new highs usually occur two to three months after the current relative phase.

Performance of Bitcoin prices since the lows of the cycle. Source: Glassnode

Glassnode emphasized in its report that the circulating supply of BTC has remained above the +1 standard deviation profit range for 273 consecutive days. This duration is second only to the record set during the period from 2015 to 2018, with 335 consecutive days of such conditions. Additionally, the amount of profits realized by long-term holders exceeds those of all previous cycles, indicating that selling pressure in the market continues to accumulate.

"These market signals further reinforce the idea that this current cycle is already in its late stage," Glassnode stated in its weekly market report. It also noted that similar market conditions in past cycles typically foreshadow new high points within months.

Since reaching a high of $124,000, the price of BTC has declined by nearly 9%, accompanied by a significant decrease in capital inflows. Data shows that the growth in BTC’s market value reached its peak in recent weeks, at just 6% per month. In contrast, at the time when the price exceeded $100,000 at the end of 2024, the growth rate was 13%.

The volume of profit-taking actions also decreased significantly. Glassnode observed that during recent high-point impulses, the scale of profit-taking was much lower compared to the peaks seen at prices of $70,000, $100,000, and $122,000. Despite the market correction, losses remain moderate, at around $112 million per day, which is within the normal range for periods of local corrections.

Net realized gains and losses for BTC. Source: Glassnode

Demand for BTC is strong, but hitting new highs remains difficult.

尽管市场存在获利回吐压力，CryptoQuant数据显示需求正在复苏。数据表明，最年轻的BTC持有者群体(钱包使用时间未满一个月)已转为净正值，9月份该群体持有的供应量激增了73,702枚。

短期持有者(STHs)也在积极加大购买力度，累计增持了159,098枚BTC。这些新增资金正在吸收长期持有者(LTHs)释放的币量，这种动态通常在持续牛市中较为常见。

然而，Santiment的链上分析师警告称，不应期待市场立即反弹。历史数据表明，散户交易者急于"逢低买入"的行为往往预示着进一步下跌，而目前空头头寸规模仍不足以引发大规模空头挤压行情。

过去四周BTC交易所流出量。来源：Santiment

自BTC价格跌破11.4万美元以来，市场情绪明显转向负面，但分析师指出，当前恐慌程度尚未达到完全投降的水平。

与此同时，大型持币者持续增持，数据显示持有10至10,000枚BTC的钱包自8月底以来新增了56,000多枚。交易所余额在过去一个月也减少了31,000多枚，这一趋势有效降低了短期卖出压力。