Shiba Inu currency faces significant resistance, and bullish recovery is difficult to confirm

SHIB Technical Analysis: Bulls need to defend key support to confirm a rebound trend

Shiba Inu (SHIB) rose about 3% in 24 hours, regaining its moving average support between US$0.0000500 and US$0.00000507, and is currently trading at approximately US$0.0000535. Although bulls try to establish a lasting bullish trend, the limited nature of buying power still threatens them. To challenge the August peak of $0.0000620 with stronger momentum, buyers must first hold the $0.0000500 line and break through the resistance level of $0.0000568.

Negative capital flows in the spot market have (moderately) reduced the supply of tokens on exchanges, but sluggish futures activity and low liquidation volumes have not confirmed strong bullish beliefs in the market. This suggests that market sentiment remains cautious and more data is needed to confirm the persistence of the trend.

Technical Analysis: Key Support and Resistance Areas

According to market data, SHIB has increased by about 3% in the past 24 hours, and the market price has stabilized at around US$0.00000535, consolidating its long position. More importantly, the token successfully stood on multiple moving averages concentrated in the range of US$0.0000500 to US$0.0000507, which laid an important foundation for the technical aspect. This range has now become the main support area for buyers to protect the emerging recovery from new selling pressure.

In addition, an uptrend line that has formed since the August low has also strengthened the area, providing bulls with a clear level of defense. However, SHIB encountered difficulties when it tried to break through US$0.0000540 many times, and selling pressure limited the room for gains in the near future. During the August rally, SHIB approached a high of $0.0000620 before being rejected by sellers and pushed lower to a lower support level.

Before challenging high, buyers must overcome a long-term moving average near the important resistance level of $0.0000568. Confirming a breakthrough at this location will strengthen the market structure and open up a new path to the US$0.0000620 area. On the contrary, if there is another rejection/pullback near this moving average, the SHIB may continue to fluctuate within the current range and expose signs of weak trader demand.

Momentum indicators also support cautious optimism as they have not yet confirmed the strong buying pressure needed for a breakthrough. The daily relative strength index (RSI) of the SHIB is about 57.6. Although it is above the neutral level and has not entered the overbought region, it indicates that the bulls only hold a slight advantage and the current momentum is not enough to support a radical expansion of the recovery.

Capital flows and market sentiment: limited spot outflows, vague derivatives signals

Shiba Inu recorded negative net spot flow of approximately US$271,000 in eight hours, and outflows were close to US$210,000 in four hours. Generally speaking, negative net flows mean that investors withdraw more tokens from exchanges than they deposit, reducing the supply available for immediate sell-offs. However, compared to SHIB's market value of approximately US$3.16 billion, these withdrawals are small and cannot independently confirm the bullish strength.

Futures market activity also reflects uncertainty among traders, with significant differences in the number of open contracts on major cryptocurrency trading platforms. In addition, SHIB's liquidation amount in 24 hours was approximately US$112,000, which was limited relative to its overall market value. As a result, despite the improved price structure and a moderate reduction in exchange supply, derivatives activity did not confirm aggressive bullish positions.

Future trend outlook

Shiba Inu must maintain its support position in the US$0.0000500 region because if this support is lost, the uptrend line formed since the August low will be weakened. This weakness could expose prices to lower support levels between $0.0000480 and $0.0000440, reversing most of the recent recovery gains.

On the contrary, if we can hold on to US$0.0000500 and break through US$0.0000568, it will strengthen the control of long positions and create new opportunities to challenge US$0.00000620. Overall, SHIB is still in a recovery stage, but stronger trading volume and continued momentum support are still needed to establish a lasting bullish trend.