Shiba Inu price forecast: Shibarium's lock-in capital plummeted 68%, with a single pool as the main

Shibarium's lock-up capital plummeted: The fluctuations in a single liquidity pool conceal the true activity on the chain

As of October 10, 2026, Shibarium's lock-up capital as Shiba Inu's exclusive public chain was US$50,639. The day before, the figure reached $157,958. A one-day drop of 68%, but SHIB prices did not respond significantly to this: As of noon Saturday, SHIB was trading at US$0.00000545 (approximately 0.0000487 euros), up 2.4% in 24 hours.

If this plunge is interpreted as a signal of capital flight, it is a misreading of the data. This is not the collective withdrawal of a large number of users, but the change in individual liquidity positions in decentralized exchanges. In the past few weeks, this position has experienced significant in-and-out movements every one to three days. This article will analyze the source of this data, its reflection on the actual utility on the chain, and the SHIB price logic derived therefrom.

Review of Shibarium data on October 10: From US$157,958 to US$50,639

Shibarium daily data displayed by DefiLlama showed severe shocks similar to an electrocardiogram in early October. It was $56,770 on October 4, rose to $149,644 on October 5, fell back to $55,832 on October 6, and rebounded to $172,020 on October 7. It then reached $163,757 on October 8,$157,958 on October 9, and finally fell sharply to $50,639 on October 10.

Over the past 30 days, the average value for this series of data was $55,867. The highest value for the period was US$172,020 on October 7, and the lowest value was US$49,740 on September 10. For comparison reference: In December 2024, the chain had a locked position of US$6,437,163; the 2026 high was US$1,481,811.

WoofSwap acts as a "water gauge": a single pool contributes 95% of the decline

DefiLlama breaks down the locklock data by agreement, revealing the source of the jump. WoodSwap Shibarium, a decentralized exchange on the chain, held US$113,498 on October 9, but only US$11,219 was left on October 10. This alone explained US$102,279 of the total decline of US$107,319, accounting for 95.3%. The day before, it accounted for 71.9% of the entire chain's capital.

This pattern has been repeated: WoofSwap held US$106,596 on October 5, dropped to US$12,253 on October 6, and rose to US$124,556 on October 7. A tenfold fluctuation in a single day for a position of this size usually stems from the behavior of a single market participant providing liquidity and then withdrawing quickly. It is impossible for large numbers of retail investors to act simultaneously on an hourly basis.

Since September 11, the dark background (the base value excluding WoofSwap) has remained between US$38,020 and US$47,654. The top part of the orange is the fickle WoofSwap pool.

Total locked value (TVL): How indicators reflect the true utility of the chain

The total locked value (TVL) is the dollar value of all assets deposited in chain smart contracts, including trading pools, lending markets, and pledge contracts. The indicator measures locked up capital rather than transaction volume or the number of users. When a single participant injects money, the value increases; when the same participant reclaims money, the value decreases.

In addition, two factors distort this number. First, it is denominated in U.S. dollars: If the price of deposited tokens rises, TVL will rise even if there are no new deposits. Second, Shibarium's list of agreements includes an entry for the Gate trading platform ($97,658) that DefiLlama classifies as a centralized exchange category and therefore does not count in on-chain value. If all agreements were added indiscriminately, the result would reach US$148,299, almost three times the actual reported value.

Baseline value after excluding WoofSwap: US$39,420 spread across 13 other agreements

After excluding the volatile pool, the rest appears unusually calm. On October 10, this remaining amount was US$39,420. In the past 30 days, this base value has never exceeded the range of $38,020 to $47,654, not even for a day. This means there was no capital flight along the chain; it never held capital worth mentioning.

The specific distribution is as follows: ShibaSwap V1 holds US$20,952, Shibex holds US$5,671, DogSwap holds US$5,494, ChewySwap holds US$2,862, PunkSwap holds US$1,899, and ShibaSwap V2 holds US$1,317. The remaining seven entries are less than $500 each. In total, DefiLlama lists 14 protocols on Shibarium. The total amount of the two versions of the internal exchange ShibaSwap is US$22,269.

From October 8: Capital changed from US$159,561 to US$50,639

In our October 8 forecast, we still recorded Shibarium capital of US$159,561, with an average daily transaction volume of 1,323 transactions and a price of US$0.00000528. Two days later, three of the numbers changed and each moved in different directions.

Chain capital has dropped to one-third. During the same period, the price rose from US$0.0000528 to US$0.0000545, an increase of 3.2%. On-chain usage has improved: Shibariumscan data shows that there were 2,438 transactions before 10:51 a.m. UTC on October 10 alone. The previously mentioned target of US$0.0000610 is still valid, but the gap with current prices has narrowed from 15.5% to 11.9%.

Through Shibarium combustion costs: the amount of combustion depends on the chain transaction volume

The reason why Shibarium Capital is important for SHIB prediction stems from the project's design mechanism: part of the chain transaction fees are used to burn SHIB. The more activity on the chain, the fewer tokens there are in circulation. This is the economic bridge between the technology and price on which forecasts based on scarcity justify prices rely.

这一桥梁可以量化。Shibariumscan 报告当日气体消耗量为 186,831,439 单位。以太坊兼容链上的简单转账成本为 21,000 气体单位，因此每日消耗量大致相当于 8,900 次此类转账。自启动以来，链上已在 11,114,269 个区块中处理了 736,027,044 笔交易，平均区块时间为 5.0 秒。实际有多少进入燃烧地址，需查看燃烧余额，我们上次计算是在 10 月 9 日的燃烧余额分析中进行的。

只要单一容器决定整体水平，共享读数对其他容器的参考价值就微乎其微。

薄池滑点：SHIB 订单需关注的风险

滑点是指提交订单时看到的价格与实际成交价格之间的差异。交易池中资本越少，中等规模的订单就会越不利地推动价格。对于目前持有 20,952 美元的 ShibaSwap V1 而言，四位数的金额就足以造成显著影响。

在实践中，对于任何有意义的 SHIB 买卖规模，中心化平台是更现实的选择，而非 Shibarium 上的去中心化池子。SHIB 的全市场日交易额约为 6,658 万美元，大约是整条链上资本的 1,315 倍。下订单前，需关注三点：声明的滑点容忍度、提供商的交易费，以及提供商是否在欧盟符合 MiCA 注册要求。

Regarding taxation, Germany follows familiar rules: under Article 23 of the Income Tax Act, income from holding a SHIB for more than one year and then selling it is exempt; if the holding period is less than one year, an exemption threshold of € 1,000 per year applies. Converting SHIB for other tokens on Shibarium is considered a disposal and the timing cycle for receiving tokens will restart.

Comparison of market value and on-chain capital: US$3.21 billion to US$50,639

SHIB ranks 36th among cryptocurrencies, with a market value of US$3.21 billion and a total of 589.24 trillion tokens in circulation. Its locked up capital on its own chain is only US$50,639. As a result, the market value is approximately 63,400 times the working capital in the associated infrastructure, with TVL accounting for only 0.0016% of the valuation.

Comparisons within the plate help locate this data. Dogecoin trades at $0.085829, has a market value of $13.41 billion, and a daily trading volume of $484.78 million. However, it does not have any smart contract chain of its own and does not claim to have such utility. Those who believe that SHIB is superior to pure memin often use Shibarium to defend it. However, this defense must be measured against the above data.

Currently, inflows and outflows on the chain rely entirely on a single operator.

Key prices for the next few days: 0.0000533 below, 0.0000552 above

The most recent support is the intraday low of 0.0000533 on October 10. Below it is the past 30-day low of $0.0000494 hit on September 16. Looking upwards, the intraday high of $0.0000552 first constitutes resistance.

更具参考意义的上方位置是 0.00000561 美元。它标志着 10 月跌幅的一半，从 10 月 5 日的高点 0.00000592 美元跌至 10 月 9 日的低点 0.00000529 美元。价格若能收复这一半跌幅，则抵消了过去一周的下行趋势。此后，我们 10 月 8 日预测中的 0.00000610 美元（过去 30 天高点，设定于 9 月 23 日）才重新变得可达。七天内 SHIB 下跌 3.5%，三十天内上涨 5.7%。

我们的评估：价格跟随叙事，而非链上资本

编辑团队认为，数据反驳了任何基于 Shibarium 使用量的预测。证据在于本文：链上资本基础在 30 天内未离开 38,020 美元至 47,654 美元的范围，而同期价格上涨了 5.7%。10 月 10 日，报告的 TVL 下降 68%，而价格在当天反而上涨 2.4%。在观察期内，两者之间未见联系。

这一解读并不涉及价格方向，而是针对推理逻辑。任何持有 SHIB 的人都应知道，当前的波动来自市场情绪和更广泛的加密市场环境，而非来自对该链本身的可测量需求。基于 Shibarium 采用率的price forecast 在此数据中没有基础。这不是买入或卖出的建议，而是对特定类型论证方式的警告。

三个反对意见及支持不同解读的数据

First, TVL only measures locked in capital. Chain utilization has increased recently, from an average of 1,323 transactions per day on October 8 to 2,438 transactions in the middle of the morning of October 10. For expense burning, what matters is the number of transactions, not the capital in the pool.

Second, the baseline value is stable rather than shrinking. Projects where core business collapses often show a downward trend rather than straddling a 30-day level. Third, one month is a short time window. The chain held US$6,437,163 in December 2024 and US$1,481,811 in 2026, so capital can obviously flow back. The remaining question is what caused the backflow.

Shibarium Capital: If there is no trading volume, combustion will only be a fraction

Please verify the data yourself before believing it. The subdivision of each agreement is located under the chain head of DefiLlama, and trading and gas consumption are located in Shibariumscan. We outline the tools for bundling such data in the Analytics Platform Overview.

Please include slips and fees in cost before placing an order. Since the pool is in the four-digit to five-digit range, the cost of larger on-chain orders may be higher than the cost of centralized platforms; please refer to exchange comparisons for terms.

If you plan to hold a SHIB for more than one year to take advantage of the timing rule of Section 23 of the Income Tax Act, please arrange for custody properly. Please refer to Hardware Wallet Comparison for suitable hardware devices.

The raw data behind this article is publicly available: the capital on the chain comes from DefiLlama, and the blocks, transactions and gas consumption comes from Shibariumscan.

(As of October 10, 2026. This article does not constitute investment advice. Price and fee structures are subject to change; please check terms with your provider before purchasing.)