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BTC Data on the Bitcoin chain is beginning to send a signal to strengthen the possibility of market recovery.
The rules-based market model developed by BIT, after maintaining a net long position level of 67% for two months, five key indicators have also historically entered the bear-market-related zone. However, Bitcoin's recent decline of about $7,000 suggests that rising expectations have not yet been fully established.
Why does the BIT model point to a bear market again?
BIT released an update on the status of its on-chain model in an October 9 post. The model operated with a net long position of 100% on October 1, 2025, but fell back to 33% in November and fell to zero in December. The model remained at this level throughout the decline and did not recover to 67% until September 1, 2026.
As a result, the model maintained the same position ratio for two consecutive months. According to BIT, all five indicators simultaneously reached historically upward-related levels, recreating the scene seen in October 2025. While this development suggests the possibility of recovery in the Bitcoin cycle, it is particularly emphasized that not all indicators have turned positive.
What does the Bitcoin Cost Indicator say?
The first indicator is Short-Term Realized Price. This measurement estimates the average cost of recent Bitcoin purchases. Bitcoin fell below the $112,300 level in October 2025, but rose above that level from $68,800 in August 2026. The current indicator value is US$74,319.
第二个指标是真实市场均值（True Market Mean），它追踪市场上活跃使用的资本的成本基础。该值位于77,460美元，而CoinGecko数据显示比特币价格约为82,000美元。BIT指出，如果价格持续在该阈值上方交易，可能会使上涨情景更加强劲。
这两个指标有助于投资者评估成本水平与当前价格之间的关系。然而，价格高于这些阈值并不保证持久的上涨趋势。
MVRV、NUPL和VDD指标为何重要？
第三个指标MVRV将比特币的市值与其实现价值进行比较。MVRV读数为0.20。该测量值用于结合链上成本数据来评估市场的当前估值。
第四个指标NUPL衡量投资者的未实现盈亏状况。NUPL重新进入正性区域，这是自2025年10月以来首次达到此水平。这种变化表明整个投资者群体的账面利润状况有所改善。
第五个指标是销毁价值天数（Value Days Destroyed, VDD）。该测量值通过考虑比特币单位的持有时间和其价值来跟踪链上的活动。VDD也进入了与上涨相关的区域。至此，五个指标全部开始产生积极信号。
哪些风险会破坏比特币的上涨情景？
Despite the positive on-chain data, bitcoin's price performance remains under pressure. According to CoinGecko, Bitcoin is trading at around $82,000, down 4.5 percent in the past seven days and more than 32 percent in the past year. After failing to break through $87,000, the price dropped about $7,000.
During the same period, the U.S. government transferred a large amount of BTC on Coinbase Prime, with outflows totaling $731 million from the spot Bitcoin ETF on October 7 and 8, and realized profits selling of more than $1 billion being the main factors.
BIT stated that the model has not yet fully shifted to long positions. Since certain indicators have not yet signaled an increase, if Bitcoin continues to fall at short-term realized prices and real market averages, it may be a premature warning.
This content in no way constitutes investment advice. Markets contain high risks, and independent research is important before making investment decisions.
